Prediction comparison

PTS5 Men

18.10.2025 Wollongong AUS

Race information and calculation basis

2025 World Triathlon Para Championships Wollongong

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 46/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 92.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 92.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error7.0

Mean swim error31.1 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

					Details
0 / 1	Chris Hammer USA	+115 s +89 s	G0 / G1	32:49	Show details Prediction details: Chris Hammer Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +115 s Time: Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +89 s Fehler: 26.0 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 26 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 32:49 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 16 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:03 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 32:49 (3:17 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Jack Howell AUS	+10 s +0 s	G0 / G1	34:08	Show details Prediction details: Jack Howell Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +10 s Time: Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 10.0 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 26 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 34:08 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 1.15 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:30 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 34:08 (3:25 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Martin Schulz GER	+20 s +40 s	G0 / G1	37:05	Show details Prediction details: Martin Schulz Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: -20.0 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 26 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 37:05 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -1.48 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:40 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 37:05 (3:42 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Stefan Daniel CAN	+28 s +42 s	G0 / G3	34:23	Show details Prediction details: Stefan Daniel Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: -14.0 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 28 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 34:23 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:58 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 34:23 (3:26 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Filipe Marques POR	+0 s +7 s	G0 / G3	35:07	Show details Prediction details: Filipe Marques Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: -7.0 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 42 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 35:07 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:29 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 35:07 (3:31 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Tom Williamson IRL	+0 s +5 s	G0 / G2	37:27	Show details Prediction details: Tom Williamson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: -5.0 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 32 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 37:27 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.92 %, Sicherheit 18 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:07 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 37:27 (3:45 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Ugurcan Ozer TUR	+36 s +29 s	G0 / G4	37:38	Show details Prediction details: Ugurcan Ozer Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: 7.0 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 43 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 37:38 (3:46 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 21 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 37:38 (3:46 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Bence Mocsari HUN	+35 s +42 s	G0 / G4	36:34	Show details Prediction details: Bence Mocsari Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: -7.0 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 32 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 36:34 (3:39 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:03 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 36:34 (3:39 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	David Bryant AUS	+74 s +78 s	G0 / G5	37:01	Show details Prediction details: David Bryant Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +74 s Time: Pace: 1:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +78 s Fehler: -4.0 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 24 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 37:01 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:35 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 37:01 (3:42 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Ruiter Antonio Goncalves Silva BRA	+0 s +45 s	G0 / G5	43:12	Show details Prediction details: Ruiter Antonio Goncalves Silva Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: 1:36 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +45 s Fehler: -45.0 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -1.58 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 43:12 (4:19 / km) Historical basis: 4:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -1.35 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:35 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 43:12 (4:19 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Oscar Dennis KEN	+0 s +53 s	G0 / G6	39:20	Show details Prediction details: Oscar Dennis Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: -53.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 39:20 (3:56 / km) Historical basis: 3:56 / km Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:00 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 39:20 (3:56 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Michael Salisbury GBR	+151 s +106 s	G0 / G7	41:28	Show details Prediction details: Michael Salisbury Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +151 s Time: Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +106 s Fehler: 45.0 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 18 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 41:28 (4:09 / km) Historical basis: 4:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -2.11 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:20 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 41:28 (4:09 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Takumi Ando JPN	+0 s +161 s	G0 / G8	39:57	Show details Prediction details: Takumi Ando Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +161 s Fehler: -161.0 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 39:57 (4:00 / km) Historical basis: 4:06 / km Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:16 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 39:57 (4:00 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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