Prediction comparison

PTWC Women

18.10.2025 Wollongong AUS

Race information and calculation basis

2025 World Triathlon Para Championships Wollongong

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 50/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.5

Mean swim error34.2 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

					Details
0 / 1	Lauren Parker H1 AUS	+30 s +25 s	G0 / G1	28:25	Show details Prediction details: Lauren Parker H1 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: Pace: 1:45 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: 5.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 28:25 (2:51 / km) Historical basis: 2:54 / km Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:05 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 28:25 (2:51 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Emelia Perry H1 USA	+123 s +106 s	G0 / G2	27:52	Show details Prediction details: Emelia Perry H1 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +123 s Time: Pace: 2:03 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +106 s Fehler: 17.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 27:52 (2:47 / km) Historical basis: 2:50 / km Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:49 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 27:52 (2:47 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Jessica Ferreira H1 BRA	+142 s +102 s	G0 / G3	26:12	Show details Prediction details: Jessica Ferreira H1 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +142 s Time: Pace: 2:01 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +102 s Fehler: 40.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 26:12 (2:37 / km) Historical basis: 2:39 / km Best comparable pace: 2:38 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:05 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 26:12 (2:37 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Eva María Moral Pedrero H1 ESP	+0 s +103 s	G0 / G4	29:16	Show details Prediction details: Eva María Moral Pedrero H1 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: 1:53 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +103 s Fehler: -103.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 29:16 (2:56 / km) Historical basis: 3:00 / km Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:56 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 29:16 (2:56 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Brenda Osnaya Alvarez H1 MEX	+106 s +146 s	G0 / G6	28:15	Show details Prediction details: Brenda Osnaya Alvarez H1 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +106 s Time: Pace: 1:56 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +146 s Fehler: -40.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 28:15 (2:50 / km) Historical basis: 2:53 / km Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:54 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 28:15 (2:50 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Skyler Fisher H2 USA	+0 s +0 s	G0 / G5	30:10	Show details Prediction details: Skyler Fisher H2 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: 1:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 30:10 (3:01 / km) Historical basis: 3:01 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:48 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 30:10 (3:01 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total