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Elite Men

14.03.2026 Troutbeck Resort ZIM
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Africa Triathlon Cup Troutbeck

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 100/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 73 früheren Rennen und 1464 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 43.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 73 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.8
Mean swim error11.7 s
Mean bike-speed error6.12 km/h
Correct bike groups2/13
No history0
Within the 80% range84.6 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Justus Töpper
GER
+17 s
+20 s
G1 / G2
 15:34
16:03
 44:17
Show details
Prediction details: Justus Töpper

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -2.6 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 86 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:03 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 44:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:24 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Total: 44:17
2 / 2 Martin Demuth
CZE
+7 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:39
16:59
 44:22
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Demuth

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 6.8 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:59 (3:24 / km)
Error: −1:20 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 44:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:24 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Total: 44:22
3 / 4 Kazushi Jozuka
JPN
+17 s
+41 s
G1 / G2
 15:45
16:26
 44:28
Show details
Prediction details: Kazushi Jozuka

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -23.6 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 44:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:24 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:28
4 / 1 Lasse Lührs
GER
+19 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:14
16:22
 44:57
Show details
Prediction details: Lasse Lührs

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 7.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 5.5 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:22 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 44:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:24 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Total: 44:57
5 / 5 Badr Siwane
MAR
+10 s
+27 s
G1 / G2
 16:20
16:28
 45:03
Show details
Prediction details: Badr Siwane

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -17.2 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 5.2 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:24 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km)
Total: 45:03
6 / 6 Ayan Beisenbayev
KAZ
+29 s
+33 s
G2 / G3
 15:22
16:16
 45:08
Show details
Prediction details: Ayan Beisenbayev

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -3.9 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:54 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 45:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:12 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Total: 45:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 6.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8 Samuel Künz
AUT
+15 s
+17 s
G1 / G2
 16:57
17:33
 45:40
Show details
Prediction details: Samuel Künz

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -2.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 89 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.2 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 45:40
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:24 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Total: 45:40
8 / 7 Luke McCarron
IRL
+25 s
+35 s
G2 / G4
 15:55
16:11
 45:41
Show details
Prediction details: Luke McCarron

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -10.5 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.5 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 68 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 45:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:12 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Total: 45:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 1.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 9 Noah Künz
AUT
+34 s
+36 s
G2 / G3
 16:31
17:18
 46:17
Show details
Prediction details: Noah Künz

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -2.3 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 55.1 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 85 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:47 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 46:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:12 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Total: 46:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 10.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 11 Matthew Van Coller
RSA
+31 s
+54 s
G2 / G6
 16:45
17:31
 46:31
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Van Coller

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -23.2 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:46 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 46:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:12 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Total: 46:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 7.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 10 Conrad Visagie
RSA
+89 s
+106 s
G3 / G5
 16:12
16:37
 48:50
Show details
Prediction details: Conrad Visagie

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 10–12
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +89 s
Time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +106 s
Fehler: -17.2 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 84 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 55.1 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:12 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 83 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 48:50
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:09 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 16:12 (3:14 / km)
Total: 48:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 65.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 12 Joshua Steytler
RSA
+95 s
+77 s
G4 / G7
 16:29
17:32
 53:31
Show details
Prediction details: Joshua Steytler

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 11–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +95 s
Time: 10:43
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: 18.1 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -1.16 %, Sicherheit 84 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Error: −1:03 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 53:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:43 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:26 (34.4 km/h)
Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Total: 53:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 72.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 13 Bongani Tshabalala
RSA
+93 s
+110 s
G4 / G8
 19:15
18:42
 56:17
Show details
Prediction details: Bongani Tshabalala

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +93 s
Time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +110 s
Fehler: -17.1 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 30.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:15 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.83 %, Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:42 (3:44 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 56:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:26 (34.4 km/h)
Run: 19:15 (3:51 / km)
Total: 56:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 70 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.