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Elite Women

14.03.2026 Troutbeck Resort ZIM
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Africa Triathlon Cup Troutbeck

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 83/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 69 früheren Rennen und 564 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 31.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 66.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 66.7 % · 69 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.0
Mean swim error36.2 s
Mean bike-speed error5.19 km/h
Correct bike groups3/3
No history0
Within the 80% range100.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Jule Behrens
GER
+26 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:44
19:01
 49:55
Show details
Prediction details: Jule Behrens

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 13.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.49 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 64.5 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 30.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:01 (3:48 / km)
Error: −2:17 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 49:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:45 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Total: 49:55
2 / 2 Himeka Sato
JPN
+24 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:09
19:43
 52:20
Show details
Prediction details: Himeka Sato

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 24.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.47 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 30.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:09 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:43 (3:57 / km)
Error: −0:34 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 52:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:45 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 19:09 (3:50 / km)
Total: 52:20
3 / 3 Rachel O'Donoghue
ZIM
+91 s
+19 s
G2 / G2
correct 		21:47
20:23
 1:02:08
Show details
Prediction details: Rachel O'Donoghue

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +91 s
Time: 11:32
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 71.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 64.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 29.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:47 (4:21 / km)
Historical basis: 4:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:23 (4:05 / km)
Error: +1:24 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:08
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 11:32 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:50 (31.4 km/h)
Run: 21:47 (4:21 / km)
Total: 1:02:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 58.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.