Prediction comparison

Elite Women

14.02.2026 EGY

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Africa Triathlon Duathlon Cup El Galala

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.02.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 7/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 14.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 57.1 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.0

Mean bike-speed error29.89 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Ghizlane Assou MAR	+244 s	G0 / G1	17:59	Show details Prediction details: Ghizlane Assou Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +244 s Time: Pace: 1:55 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 33.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -33.77 km/h Running and total Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km) Historical basis: 3:36 / km Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 19:23 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Doaa Izem MAR	+134 s	G0 / G2	22:30	Show details Prediction details: Doaa Izem Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +134 s Time: Pace: 1:45 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.43 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 30.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -30.78 km/h Running and total Run: 22:30 (4:30 / km) Historical basis: 4:30 / km Best comparable pace: 4:19 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:02 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:30 (4:30 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Leyla Abdulazizova AZE	+0 s	G0 / G2	29:05	Show details Prediction details: Leyla Abdulazizova Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: 2:30 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 30.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -30.84 km/h Running and total Run: 29:05 (5:49 / km) Historical basis: 5:49 / km Best comparable pace: 5:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:08 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 29:05 (5:49 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Dalia Aidouni ALG	+104 s	G0 / G4	23:11	Show details Prediction details: Dalia Aidouni Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +104 s Time: Pace: 1:32 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.45 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 29.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -29.13 km/h Running and total Run: 23:11 (4:38 / km) Historical basis: 4:38 / km Best comparable pace: 4:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:10 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 23:11 (4:38 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Milana Khalilova AZE	+81 s	G0 / G3	25:37	Show details Prediction details: Milana Khalilova Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +81 s Time: Pace: 2:16 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 30.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -30.53 km/h Running and total Run: 25:37 (5:07 / km) Historical basis: 5:07 / km Best comparable pace: 5:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:44 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 25:37 (5:07 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Manal Ahmed EGY	+0 s	G0 / G5	47:18	Show details Prediction details: Manal Ahmed Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 27.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -27.50 km/h Running and total Run: 47:18 (9:28 / km) Historical basis: 9:28 / km Best comparable pace: 9:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 21:05 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 47:18 (9:28 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Retag Al Gaber EGY	+153 s	G0 / G6	25:28	Show details Prediction details: Retag Al Gaber Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +153 s Time: Pace: 1:47 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 26.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -26.65 km/h Running and total Run: 25:28 (5:06 / km) Historical basis: 5:06 / km Best comparable pace: 5:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 23:50 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 25:28 (5:06 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total