Prediction comparison

Junior Women

14.06.2026 MRI

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Africa Triathlon Junior Cup Blue Bay

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 calibrated

Prediction quality 70/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 73 früheren Rennen und 1462 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 41.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 04.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 40.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 80.0 % · 73 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error0.8

Mean swim error25.2 s

Mean bike-speed error4.69 km/h

Correct bike groups1/4

No history1

Within the 80% range60.0 %

						Details
1 / 1	Rachel O'Donoghue ZIM	+38 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	18:54 19:58	1:06:09	Show details Prediction details: Rachel O'Donoghue Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 12:28 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 38.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 25.7 km/h Gap ahead: 1.6 s Gap behind: 141.7 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 34.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -8.92 km/h Running and total Run: 18:54 (3:47 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:58 (4:00 / km) Error: −1:04 / −0:13 / km Overall prediction: 1:06:09 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 12:28 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 46:37 (25.7 km/h) Run: 18:54 (3:47 / km) Total: 1:06:09
2 / 3	Keira Rajabalee MRI	+36 s +36 s	G1 / G3	30:42 25:39	1:17:57	Show details Prediction details: Keira Rajabalee Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 12:26 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +36 s Fehler: 0.4 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.50 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 55 % Speed: 25.7 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 1.6 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 28.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.82 km/h Running and total Run: 30:42 (6:08 / km) Historical basis: 6:07 / km Best comparable pace: 4:30 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:39 (5:08 / km) Error: +5:03 / +1:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:17:57 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 12:26 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 46:37 (25.7 km/h) Run: 30:42 (6:08 / km) Total: 1:17:57
3 / 5	Melinda Dippenaar RSA	+193 s +160 s	G2 / G4	27:42 30:15	1:18:22	Show details Prediction details: Melinda Dippenaar Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +193 s Time: 15:03 Pace: 2:00 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +160 s Fehler: 32.6 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 12.9 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 29.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.75 km/h Running and total Run: 27:42 (5:32 / km) Historical basis: 5:33 / km Best comparable pace: 5:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 30:15 (6:03 / km) Error: −2:33 / −0:31 / km Overall prediction: 1:18:22 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 15:03 (2:00 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 47:27 (25.2 km/h) Run: 27:42 (5:32 / km) Total: 1:18:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:34 Pace: 1:41 / 100 m About 148.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4	Syona Naiko MRI	+180 s +150 s	G2 / G4	31:05 23:30	1:21:45	Show details Prediction details: Syona Naiko Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +180 s Time: 14:50 Pace: 1:59 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +150 s Fehler: 29.7 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.48 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 141.7 s Gap behind: 12.9 s Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 28.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.27 km/h Running and total Run: 31:05 (6:13 / km) Historical basis: 6:15 / km Best comparable pace: 6:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:30 (4:42 / km) Error: +7:35 / +1:31 / km Overall prediction: 1:21:45 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 14:50 (1:59 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 47:27 (25.2 km/h) Run: 31:05 (6:13 / km) Total: 1:21:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:34 Pace: 1:41 / 100 m About 135.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2	Tiffany Piat MRI	+0 s +89 s	G0 / G2	22:19		Show details Prediction details: Tiffany Piat Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 11:50 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +89 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 33.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:19 (4:28 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 11:50 (1:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total