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Junior Men

21.03.2026 NAM
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Africa Triathlon Junior Cup Swakopmund

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 86/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 73 früheren Rennen und 1464 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 43.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 71.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 85.7 % · 73 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.5
Mean swim error25.4 s
Mean bike-speed error2.42 km/h
Correct bike groups2/12
No history2
Within the 80% range50.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 5 Nicholas Horne
RSA
+65 s
+68 s
G1 / G3
 16:28
16:11
 50:42
Show details
Prediction details: Nicholas Horne

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: -3.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 29.8 s
Gap behind: 69.8 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:09 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Total: 50:42
2 / 1 Antony Clayton
RSA
+16 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:45
15:56
 50:59
Show details
Prediction details: Antony Clayton

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 16.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 10.3 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.68 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:49 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 50:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:09 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Total: 50:59
3 / 2 Nathan Max Centlivres Chase
NAM
+35 s
+32 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:59
16:04
 52:13
Show details
Prediction details: Nathan Max Centlivres Chase

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 3.2 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 29.8 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 75 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Error: +1:55 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 52:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:09 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Total: 52:13
4 / 3 Ryan Viviers
RSA
+26 s
+17 s
G1 / G2
 18:00
16:39
 52:14
Show details
Prediction details: Ryan Viviers

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 9.3 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 1.35 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.3 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Error: +1:21 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 52:14
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:09 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Total: 52:14
5 / 4 Oliver Delport
RSA
+12 s
+8 s
G1 / G2
 18:24
17:05
 52:38
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Delport

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 4.1 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 59 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:24 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:05 (3:25 / km)
Error: +1:19 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 52:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:09 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 18:24 (3:41 / km)
Total: 52:38
6 / 8 Zander Botha
ZIM
+32 s
+102 s
G1 / G5
 18:26
17:25
 52:40
Show details
Prediction details: Zander Botha

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +102 s
Fehler: -70.2 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 52:40
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:09 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Total: 52:40
7 / 9 Johannes Jacob Langford
NAM
+28 s
+42 s
G1 / G5
 19:55
17:34
 54:09
Show details
Prediction details: Johannes Jacob Langford

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -14.4 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 1.72 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:55 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Error: +2:21 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 54:09
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:09 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 19:55 (3:59 / km)
Total: 54:09
8 / 7 Scott Clemmett
RSA
+10 s
+20 s
G1 / G4
 21:35
18:34
 55:49
Show details
Prediction details: Scott Clemmett

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 8–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -10.3 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -1.39 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:35 (4:19 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Error: +3:01 / +0:36 / km
Overall prediction: 55:49
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:09 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 21:35 (4:19 / km)
Total: 55:49
9 / 10 Matt Reece Levert Izaaks
NAM
+159 s
+166 s
G2 / G6
 17:27
16:03
 57:10
Show details
Prediction details: Matt Reece Levert Izaaks

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +159 s
Time: 11:53
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +166 s
Fehler: -7.3 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 23.9 s
Gap behind: 19.3 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 31.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:03 (3:13 / km)
Error: +1:24 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 57:10
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:53 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:45 (32.6 km/h)
Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Total: 57:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 138.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 11 Philip Theron
RSA
+178 s
+185 s
G2 / G6
 19:03
17:21
 58:46
Show details
Prediction details: Philip Theron

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +178 s
Time: 12:12
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +185 s
Fehler: -7.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.83 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.3 s
Gap behind: 221.4 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Error: +1:42 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 58:46
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:12 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:45 (32.6 km/h)
Run: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Total: 58:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 158.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 14 Matthew Hildebrand
ZIM
+135 s
+230 s
G2 / G9
 22:39
23:36
 1:02:22
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Hildebrand

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +135 s
Time: 11:29
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +230 s
Fehler: -95.2 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 69.8 s
Gap behind: 23.9 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 22.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:39 (4:32 / km)
Historical basis: 4:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:36 (4:43 / km)
Error: −0:57 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:22
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 11:29 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:45 (32.6 km/h)
Run: 22:39 (4:32 / km)
Total: 1:02:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 114.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Thomas Greco
ALB
+0 s
+23 s
G0 / G4
18:09
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Greco

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Joshua Bunkowske
KEN
+399 s
+335 s
G3 / G7
22:16
Show details
Prediction details: Joshua Bunkowske

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +399 s
Time: 15:53
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +335 s
Fehler: 64.4 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 221.4 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:16 (4:27 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 15:53 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 42:39 (28.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 379.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 13 Dawid Gideon Greeff
NAM
+0 s
+466 s
G0 / G8
21:35
Show details
Prediction details: Dawid Gideon Greeff

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +466 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 31.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:35 (4:19 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.