Prediction comparison

Junior Women

21.03.2026 NAM

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Africa Triathlon Junior Cup Swakopmund

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 67/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 69 früheren Rennen und 564 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 31.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 33.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 83.3 % · 69 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.0

Mean swim error26.0 s

Mean bike-speed error1.14 km/h

Correct bike groups2/6

No history0

Within the 80% range16.7 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Taylor Foster RSA	+0 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	20:59 18:49	58:33	Show details Prediction details: Taylor Foster Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:34 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 31.9 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 30.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.24 km/h Running and total Run: 20:59 (4:12 / km) Historical basis: 4:12 / km Best comparable pace: 4:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:49 (3:46 / km) Error: +2:10 / +0:26 / km Overall prediction: 58:33 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:34 (31.9 km/h) Run: 20:59 (4:12 / km) Total: 58:33
2 / 2	Karli Lotter RSA	+90 s +64 s	G2 / G2 correct	22:02 19:27	1:05:07	Show details Prediction details: Karli Lotter Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +90 s Time: 11:04 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +64 s Fehler: 26.3 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 28.8 km/h Gap ahead: 90.3 s Gap behind: 13.0 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 29.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.73 km/h Running and total Run: 22:02 (4:24 / km) Historical basis: 4:28 / km Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:27 (3:53 / km) Error: +2:35 / +0:31 / km Overall prediction: 1:05:07 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:04 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 41:34 (28.8 km/h) Run: 22:02 (4:24 / km) Total: 1:05:07 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:40 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 84.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4	Ava Jade Moore RSA	+156 s +155 s	G3 / G4	22:13 21:42	1:07:55	Show details Prediction details: Ava Jade Moore Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +156 s Time: 12:10 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +155 s Fehler: 1.2 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 27.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 52.9 s Gap behind: 55.8 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 28.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.24 km/h Running and total Run: 22:13 (4:27 / km) Historical basis: 4:33 / km Best comparable pace: 4:19 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:42 (4:20 / km) Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 1:07:55 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:10 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 43:06 (27.3 km/h) Run: 22:13 (4:27 / km) Total: 1:07:55 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:40 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 150.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 6	Kyra Elena Marschall NAM	+103 s +128 s	G3 / G5	26:54 28:38	1:12:36	Show details Prediction details: Kyra Elena Marschall Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +103 s Time: 11:17 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +128 s Fehler: -24.7 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 27.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 13.0 s Gap behind: 52.9 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 27.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.05 km/h Running and total Run: 26:54 (5:23 / km) Historical basis: 5:23 / km Best comparable pace: 5:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 28:38 (5:44 / km) Error: −1:44 / −0:21 / km Overall prediction: 1:12:36 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 11:17 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 43:06 (27.3 km/h) Run: 26:54 (5:23 / km) Total: 1:12:36 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
5 / 5	Jana Mutschler NAM	+212 s +215 s	G4 / G6	24:01 21:56	1:13:25	Show details Prediction details: Jana Mutschler Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +212 s Time: 13:06 Pace: 1:45 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +215 s Fehler: -3.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 26.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 55.8 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 27.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.52 km/h Running and total Run: 24:01 (4:48 / km) Historical basis: 4:48 / km Best comparable pace: 4:48 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:56 (4:23 / km) Error: +2:05 / +0:25 / km Overall prediction: 1:13:25 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 13:06 (1:45 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 45:52 (26.1 km/h) Run: 24:01 (4:48 / km) Total: 1:13:25 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:40 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 206.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3	Jeane Smith RSA	+0 s +101 s	G1 / G3	21:49		Show details Prediction details: Jeane Smith Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:34 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +101 s Fehler: -101.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 31.9 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 90.3 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 29.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.06 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:49 (4:22 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:34 (31.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

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Cycling

Running and total

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Running and total

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Running and total

Placement

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Running and total

Placement

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Running and total