Prediction comparison

Junior Men

14.03.2026 TROUTBECK RESORT, NYANGA ZIM

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Africa Triathlon Junior Cup Troutbeck

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 69/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 73 früheren Rennen und 1464 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 43.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 37.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 75.0 % · 73 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.9

Mean swim error87.3 s

Mean bike-speed error6.05 km/h

Correct bike groups3/7

No history1

Within the 80% range75.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Zander Botha ZIM	+75 s +1 s	G1 / G1 correct	19:14 18:23	56:36	Show details Prediction details: Zander Botha Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +75 s Time: 10:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 73.5 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.83 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 23.5 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 31.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.44 km/h Running and total Run: 19:14 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 (3:41 / km) Error: +0:51 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 56:36 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:23 (34.9 km/h) Run: 19:14 (3:51 / km) Total: 56:36
2 / 4	Aurelien Ciceron MRI	+99 s +43 s	G1 / G3	19:29 19:47	56:51	Show details Prediction details: Aurelien Ciceron Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +99 s Time: 10:28 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: 56.3 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 99 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 20.1 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 27.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.12 km/h Running and total Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.19 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:47 (3:57 / km) Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 56:51 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 10:28 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:23 (34.9 km/h) Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km) Total: 56:51
3 / 2	Callum Smith ZIM	+119 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	19:46 20:34	57:08	Show details Prediction details: Callum Smith Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 2–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +119 s Time: 10:48 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 119.4 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 18 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 83 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 20.1 s Gap behind: 103.0 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 31.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.35 km/h Running and total Run: 19:46 (3:57 / km) Historical basis: 4:02 / km Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:34 (4:07 / km) Error: −0:48 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: 57:08 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:23 (34.9 km/h) Run: 19:46 (3:57 / km) Total: 57:08
4 / 5	Matthew Hildebrand ZIM	+9 s +112 s	G1 / G2	19:55 22:43	57:17	Show details Prediction details: Matthew Hildebrand Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +9 s Time: 8:58 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +112 s Fehler: -103.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.52 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 65.3 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 29.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.46 km/h Running and total Run: 19:55 (3:59 / km) Historical basis: 3:59 / km Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:43 (4:33 / km) Error: −2:48 / −0:34 / km Overall prediction: 57:17 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:23 (34.9 km/h) Run: 19:55 (3:59 / km) Total: 57:17
5 / 3	Philip Theron RSA	+222 s +114 s	G2 / G2 correct	18:32 19:31	57:23	Show details Prediction details: Philip Theron Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 2–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +222 s Time: 12:31 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +114 s Fehler: 108.4 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 103.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 29.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.21 km/h Running and total Run: 18:32 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:48 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:31 (3:54 / km) Error: −0:59 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 57:23 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:31 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:09 (34.7 km/h) Run: 18:32 (3:42 / km) Total: 57:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 11:02 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 89.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +133.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 7	Avuzwa Makeleni RSA	+74 s +12 s	G1 / G5	21:24 23:58	58:46	Show details Prediction details: Avuzwa Makeleni Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 6–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +74 s Time: 10:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 62.3 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 18 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 90 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 65.3 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 24.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 9.98 km/h Running and total Run: 21:24 (4:17 / km) Historical basis: 4:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:58 (4:48 / km) Error: −2:34 / −0:31 / km Overall prediction: 58:46 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:23 (34.9 km/h) Run: 21:24 (4:17 / km) Total: 58:46
0 / 6	Buhle Tshabalala RSA	+98 s +10 s	G1 / G4	23:23		Show details Prediction details: Buhle Tshabalala Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +98 s Time: 10:27 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +10 s Fehler: 88.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 94 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 23.5 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 27.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.80 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:23 (4:41 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:23 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 8	Zizael Manyati ZIM	+0 s +367 s	G0 / G6	26:01		Show details Prediction details: Zizael Manyati Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 8:49 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +367 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 22.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 26:01 (5:12 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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