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PTWC Men

14.06.2026 MRI
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Africa Triathlon Para Championships Blue Bay

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 83/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 34 früheren Rennen und 1057 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 52.4 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 75.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 34 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.0
Mean swim error47.9 s
Mean bike-speed error2.57 km/h
Correct bike groups1/4
No history0
Within the 80% range50.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Fathi Zwoukhi H1
TUN
+0 s
+28 s
G1 / G1
correct 		13:26
9:37
 51:29
Show details
Prediction details: Fathi Zwoukhi H1

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:06
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -28.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 48.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:26 (2:41 / km)
Historical basis: 2:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 2.05 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:37 (1:55 / km)
Error: +3:49 / +0:46 / km
Overall prediction: 51:29
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:06 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:03 (31.5 km/h)
Run: 13:26 (2:41 / km)
Total: 51:29
2 / 4 Eslam Ali H1
EGY
+235 s
+280 s
G2 / G3
 18:49
16:16
 1:07:30
Show details
Prediction details: Eslam Ali H1

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +235 s
Time: 17:01
Pace: 2:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +280 s
Fehler: -45.3 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 26.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 186.7 s
Gap behind: 97.6 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 21.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Error: +2:33 / +0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 1:07:30
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:01 (2:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 44:46 (26.8 km/h)
Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Total: 1:07:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:09
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
About 231.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 2 Redouane Ouassif H2
MAR
+48 s
+0 s
G3 / G2
 18:53
12:32
 1:07:41
Show details
Prediction details: Redouane Ouassif H2

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 13:54
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 48.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 48.0 s
Gap behind: 186.7 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 25.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:32 (2:30 / km)
Error: +6:21 / +1:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:07:41
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 13:54 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 48:00 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Total: 1:07:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:09
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
About 45 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 3 Mateus Angula H1
NAM
+332 s
+262 s
G4 / G3
 28:24
13:20
 1:19:34
Show details
Prediction details: Mateus Angula H1

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +332 s
Time: 18:38
Pace: 2:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +262 s
Fehler: 70.3 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 26.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 97.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 21.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 28:24 (5:41 / km)
Historical basis: 5:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.07 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:20 (2:40 / km)
Error: +15:04 / +3:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:19:34
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 18:38 (2:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 45:38 (26.3 km/h)
Run: 28:24 (5:41 / km)
Total: 1:19:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:09
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
About 329.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.