Prediction comparison
PTS5 Men
13.02.2026
EGY
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Africa Triathlon Para Cup El Galala
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.02.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Prediction model used
Modell v14
Default values
Prediction quality
20/100
sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality
Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.
Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s
Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s
Gruppeneffekt 0.65
Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h
Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen
Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.0
Mean swim error140.0 s
Mean bike-speed error1.92 km/h
Correct bike groups0/2
No history1
Within the 80% range66.7 %
| Place Prediction / result |
Athlete | Swimming Prediction / result |
Bike group Prediction / result |
Run Prediction / result |
Overall prediction | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 / 2 |
Islam Abozied
EGY
|
+0 s
+244 s
|
G1 / G3
|
18:02
19:12
|
57:15 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 1
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:52
Pace: 3:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +244 s
Fehler: -244.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 30.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
109.0 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 32.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.58 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:12 (3:50 / km)
Error: −1:10 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 57:15
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
23:52
(3:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
37:24
(30.7 km/h)
Run:
18:02
(3:36 / km)
Total:
57:15
|
| 0 / 1 |
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Aleksandr Ialchik
RUS
|
+109 s
+73 s
|
G1 / G2
|
19:50
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +109 s
Time: 25:41
Pace: 3:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +73 s
Fehler: 36.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 30.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
109.0 s
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.25 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:50 (3:58 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
25:41
(3:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
37:24
(30.7 km/h)
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
|
|
| 0 / 1 |
Andrey Bukov B2
RUS
|
+0 s
+0 s
|
G0 / G1
|
18:28
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:52
Pace: 3:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:28 (3:42 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
23:52
(3:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|