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Elite Men

05.07.2026 Larache MAR
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Africa Triathlon Premium Cup Larache

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 90/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 35 früheren Rennen und 809 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 47.7 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 05.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 87.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 92.3 % · 35 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error8.3
Mean swim error19.7 s
Mean bike-speed error2.52 km/h
Correct bike groups15/39
No history0
Within the 80% range51.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 9 Ren Sato
JPN
+30 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:16
15:26
 43:00
Show details
Prediction details: Ren Sato

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 16.9 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:16 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:26 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:08 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:16 (3:03 / km)
Total: 43:00
2 / 26 Jonah Marks
POL
+31 s
+10 s
G1 / G2
 15:17
17:02
 43:01
Show details
Prediction details: Jonah Marks

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 20.6 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.30 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:17 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Error: −1:45 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 43:01
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:08 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:17 (3:03 / km)
Total: 43:01
3 / 4 Albert García Serra
ESP
+33 s
+32 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:28
14:57
 43:12
Show details
Prediction details: Albert García Serra

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–11
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 0.8 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:12
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:08 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:12
4 / 7 Eneko De Castro Cativiela
ESP
+28 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:36
15:14
 43:20
Show details
Prediction details: Eneko De Castro Cativiela

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 10.3 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:08 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Total: 43:20
5 / 13 Luis Rühl
GER
+30 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:47
15:29
 43:31
Show details
Prediction details: Luis Rühl

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–15
Top-10 probability: 64 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 16.4 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 98 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 79 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:08 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Total: 43:31
6 / 8 Jan Semmler
GER
+20 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:52
15:22
 43:36
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Semmler

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–16
Top-10 probability: 59 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 8:44
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 10.6 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 6.4 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:08 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Total: 43:36
7 / 11 Sébastien Pascal
ROU
+45 s
+35 s
G2 / G2
correct 		14:44
15:02
 43:39
Show details
Prediction details: Sébastien Pascal

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 1–9
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 10.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:44 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 68 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:02 (3:00 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 14:44 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 6.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 10 Jose Ferreira
POR
+33 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:02
15:21
 43:46
Show details
Prediction details: Jose Ferreira

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 1–32
Top-10 probability: 48 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 16.2 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 43:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:08 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Total: 43:46
9 / 12 Tim Semmler
GER
+33 s
+28 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:02
15:25
 43:46
Show details
Prediction details: Tim Semmler

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 4–21
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 5.3 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 87 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 84 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:08 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Total: 43:46
10 / 17 Gorka Rodríguez Hernández
ESP
+36 s
+13 s
G1 / G2
 16:02
15:32
 43:46
Show details
Prediction details: Gorka Rodríguez Hernández

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 9–18
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 22.6 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.93 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:46
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:08 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Total: 43:46
11 / 3 Gregor Rasva
EST
+12 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:04
14:55
 43:48
Show details
Prediction details: Gregor Rasva

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 3–20
Top-10 probability: 48 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:36
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 8.1 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 85 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.1 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 79 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:55 (2:59 / km)
Error: +1:09 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 43:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:36 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:08 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Total: 43:48
12 / 5 Hugo Fernandez Tovar
ESP
+26 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:06
14:56
 43:50
Show details
Prediction details: Hugo Fernandez Tovar

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 8–17
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 8:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 18.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.4 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:56 (2:59 / km)
Error: +1:10 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 43:50
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:08 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Total: 43:50
13 / 2 Alejandro Pla Estebanez
ESP
+39 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 15:10
14:54
 44:05
Show details
Prediction details: Alejandro Pla Estebanez

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 3–14
Top-10 probability: 71 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 24.1 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:54 (2:59 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 44:05
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Total: 44:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 0.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 14 Alejandro López García
ESP
+16 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:34
15:34
 44:18
Show details
Prediction details: Alejandro López García

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 8–22
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:40
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 14.7 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Error: +1:00 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 44:18
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:40 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:08 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Total: 44:18
15 / 6 Tomás Figueiredo
POR
+46 s
+33 s
G2 / G1
 15:32
15:06
 44:27
Show details
Prediction details: Tomás Figueiredo

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 3–21
Top-10 probability: 50 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 12.7 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 44:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Total: 44:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 7.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 28 Rodrigo Pissarra
POR
+28 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:51
18:02
 44:35
Show details
Prediction details: Rodrigo Pissarra

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 15–25
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 22.7 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Error: −1:11 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 44:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:08 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Total: 44:35
17 / 27 Brett Saunders
CAN
+32 s
+3 s
G1 / G2
 17:02
17:11
 44:46
Show details
Prediction details: Brett Saunders

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 9–33
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 28.6 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 44:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:08 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Total: 44:46
18 / 29 Antoni Juan Pol
ESP
+51 s
+42 s
G2 / G4
 16:04
15:46
 44:59
Show details
Prediction details: Antoni Juan Pol

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 13–23
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 8.7 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 8.5 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 44:59
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Total: 44:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 12.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 32 Gus Marfell
NZL
+47 s
+83 s
G2 / G4
 16:06
16:35
 45:01
Show details
Prediction details: Gus Marfell

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 11–28
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +83 s
Fehler: -36.5 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 45:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Total: 45:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 24 Ricardo Pissarra
POR
+28 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:20
17:18
 45:04
Show details
Prediction details: Ricardo Pissarra

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 20–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 14.4 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 1.30 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 45:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:08 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Total: 45:04
21 / 35 Matteo Carlo Perri
ITA
+40 s
+40 s
G2 / G7
 16:18
16:26
 45:13
Show details
Prediction details: Matteo Carlo Perri

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 4–29
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -0.4 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Total: 45:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 1.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 19 Diego Lampe
ITA
+46 s
+12 s
G2 / G1
 16:20
15:57
 45:15
Show details
Prediction details: Diego Lampe

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 7–32
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 34.4 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:57 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 45:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km)
Total: 45:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 7.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 22 Benjamin Airey
NZL
+32 s
+35 s
G1 / G2
 17:34
16:03
 45:18
Show details
Prediction details: Benjamin Airey

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 22–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -2.7 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:03 (3:13 / km)
Error: +1:31 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 45:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:08 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Total: 45:18
24 / 33 Nicolaos Keramidas
GRE
+39 s
+30 s
G2 / G5
 16:32
16:13
 45:27
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolaos Keramidas

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 14–31
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 8.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:13 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 45:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Total: 45:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 0.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 25 Archie Bremner
IRL
+6 s
+31 s
G1 / G2
 17:47
17:08
 45:31
Show details
Prediction details: Archie Bremner

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 20–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 8:30
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -25.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.78 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 6.1 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.24 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:08 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 45:31
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:30 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:08 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Total: 45:31
26 / 37 Alejandro López Pérez
ESP
+64 s
+58 s
G4 / G7
 15:29
17:45
 45:40
Show details
Prediction details: Alejandro López Pérez

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 12–26
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 5.6 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Error: −2:16 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 45:40
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Total: 45:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 25.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 18 Valentin Van Wersch
NED
+68 s
+39 s
G4 / G1
 16:00
15:54
 46:11
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Van Wersch

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 19–32
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 28.6 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -1.14 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:00 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:00 (3:12 / km)
Total: 46:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 29.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 16 Afonso Ferreira
POR
+40 s
+20 s
G2 / G1
 17:16
15:40
 46:11
Show details
Prediction details: Afonso Ferreira

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 15–34
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 20.3 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Error: +1:36 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 46:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Total: 46:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 1.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 23 Johannes Sikk
EST
+67 s
+44 s
G4 / G2
 16:13
16:35
 46:24
Show details
Prediction details: Johannes Sikk

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 14–33
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 22.5 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.92 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 74 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 46:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km)
Total: 46:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 28 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 20 Merwann Abassi
MAR
+64 s
+29 s
G4 / G2
 16:16
15:55
 46:27
Show details
Prediction details: Merwann Abassi

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 22–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 34.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 46:27
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Total: 46:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 25.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 34 Samuel Mileham
AUS
+62 s
+39 s
G4 / G6
 16:18
16:01
 46:29
Show details
Prediction details: Samuel Mileham

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 21–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 23.4 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 46:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Total: 46:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 23.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 38 Joran Stobbe
NED
+64 s
+113 s
G4 / G8
 16:38
17:46
 46:49
Show details
Prediction details: Joran Stobbe

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 12–35
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +113 s
Fehler: -49.2 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 57 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 1.00 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Error: −1:08 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 46:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Total: 46:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 25.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 39 Olaf Jan Bosscher
NED
+40 s
+17 s
G2 / G8
 17:54
19:00
 46:49
Show details
Prediction details: Olaf Jan Bosscher

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 27–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 23.2 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:00 (3:48 / km)
Error: −1:06 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 46:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Total: 46:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 1.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 30 David Abreu
POR
+59 s
+48 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:09
16:31
 47:10
Show details
Prediction details: David Abreu

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 21–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: 11.2 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 57 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.5 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 1.14 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 47:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Total: 47:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 20.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 31 Hugo Ramos Del Barco
ESP
+79 s
+20 s
G5 / G3
 16:52
16:35
 48:10
Show details
Prediction details: Hugo Ramos Del Barco

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 32–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +79 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 59.4 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:10
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:59 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Total: 48:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 40.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 36 Norwin Torge Tiemann
GER
+70 s
+54 s
G4 / G6
 18:24
16:47
 48:35
Show details
Prediction details: Norwin Torge Tiemann

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 35–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: 16.4 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -1.02 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:24 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Error: +1:37 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 48:35
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 18:24 (3:41 / km)
Total: 48:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 31.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 1 Mack Downey
GBR
+63 s
+16 s
G4 / G1
 27:56
14:43
 58:07
Show details
Prediction details: Mack Downey

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 37–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 36

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 47.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (19 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:56 (5:35 / km)
Historical basis: 5:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:43 (2:57 / km)
Error: +13:13 / +2:39 / km
Overall prediction: 58:07
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 27:56 (5:35 / km)
Total: 58:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 24.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 21 Joao Vaz
POR
+44 s
+24 s
G2 / G2
correct 		29:37
16:05
 58:32
Show details
Prediction details: Joao Vaz

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 37–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 20.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.95 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:37 (5:55 / km)
Historical basis: 6:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Error: +13:32 / +2:42 / km
Overall prediction: 58:32
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 29:37 (5:55 / km)
Total: 58:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 5.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 15 Elias Knoll
GER
+63 s
+45 s
G4 / G2
 30:04
15:12
 1:00:15
Show details
Prediction details: Elias Knoll

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 39–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: 18.4 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.88 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:04 (6:01 / km)
Historical basis: 6:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:12 (3:02 / km)
Error: +14:52 / +2:58 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:15
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 30:04 (6:01 / km)
Total: 1:00:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 24.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.