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Elite Men

29.03.2026 Santos Beach, Mossel Bay, Western Cape RSA
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Africa Triathlon Premium Cup Mossel Bay

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 29.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 97/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 49 früheren Rennen und 1484 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 44.4 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 29.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 94.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 94.1 % · 49 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.6
Mean swim error25.8 s
Mean bike-speed error1.39 km/h
Correct bike groups7/17
No history0
Within the 80% range64.7 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Lasse Lührs
GER
+21 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		32:03
31:37
 1:29:15
Show details
Prediction details: Lasse Lührs

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 18:18
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 18.1 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.1 s
Gap behind: 7.7 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:03 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:37 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:18 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:27 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 32:03 (3:12 / km)
Total: 1:29:15
2 / 2 Matthew Wright
BAR
+40 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		32:05
31:50
 1:29:17
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Wright

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 18:37
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 35.5 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:05 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:50 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:37 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:27 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 32:05 (3:13 / km)
Total: 1:29:17
3 / 9 Hugo Borel
FRA
+42 s
+56 s
G1 / G2
 32:26
33:44
 1:29:38
Show details
Prediction details: Hugo Borel

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 18:39
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: -14.4 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:26 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:44 (3:22 / km)
Error: −1:18 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:38
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 18:39 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:27 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 32:26 (3:15 / km)
Total: 1:29:38
4 / 5 Tyler Smith
BER
+45 s
+16 s
G1 / G2
 32:51
32:31
 1:30:03
Show details
Prediction details: Tyler Smith

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–11
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 28.9 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 1.34 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 12.0 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:51 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:31 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:42 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:27 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 32:51 (3:17 / km)
Total: 1:30:03
5 / 4 Julian Birkel
RSA
+38 s
+37 s
G1 / G2
 32:57
31:55
 1:30:09
Show details
Prediction details: Julian Birkel

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 18:35
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 1.4 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.6 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:57 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:55 (3:12 / km)
Error: +1:02 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:35 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:27 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 32:57 (3:18 / km)
Total: 1:30:09
6 / 7 Luke McCarron
IRL
+39 s
+61 s
G1 / G3
 33:02
32:52
 1:30:14
Show details
Prediction details: Luke McCarron

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 2–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 18:36
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -22.2 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 61 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:02 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:52 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:36 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:27 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 33:02 (3:18 / km)
Total: 1:30:14
7 / 12 William Pearson Inman
RSA
+43 s
+10 s
G1 / G2
 33:31
36:00
 1:30:43
Show details
Prediction details: William Pearson Inman

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 18:40
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 33.4 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:31 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:00 (3:36 / km)
Error: −2:29 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:43
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:40 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:27 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 33:31 (3:21 / km)
Total: 1:30:43
8 / 10 Enes Kizilcik
TUR
+40 s
+8 s
G1 / G2
 33:34
34:07
 1:30:46
Show details
Prediction details: Enes Kizilcik

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 18:37
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 32.1 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 59 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:34 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.68 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:07 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:37 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:27 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 33:34 (3:21 / km)
Total: 1:30:46
9 / 6 Gültigin Er
TUR
+29 s
+9 s
G1 / G2
 34:15
32:51
 1:31:27
Show details
Prediction details: Gültigin Er

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 18:26
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 19.8 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 59 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.7 s
Gap behind: 9.6 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:15 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:51 (3:17 / km)
Error: +1:24 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:26 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:27 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 34:15 (3:26 / km)
Total: 1:31:27
10 / 3 Zach Leachman
USA
+98 s
+71 s
G2 / G2
correct 		30:29
30:57
 1:31:31
Show details
Prediction details: Zach Leachman

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 1–11
Top-10 probability: 70 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +98 s
Time: 19:35
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: 26.5 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -1.20 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.6 s
Gap behind: 6.3 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:29 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:57 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:35 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:18 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 30:29 (3:03 / km)
Total: 1:31:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:45
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 49.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +47.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 8 Martin Demuth
CZE
+7 s
+10 s
G1 / G2
 34:21
33:26
 1:31:33
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Demuth

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 18:04
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: -3.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 14.1 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:21 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:26 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:55 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:04 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:27 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 34:21 (3:26 / km)
Total: 1:31:33
12 / 16 Daniel Gossow
USA
+104 s
+84 s
G2 / G4
 34:37
37:58
 1:35:39
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Gossow

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 12–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +104 s
Time: 19:41
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +84 s
Fehler: 19.8 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -1.33 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.3 s
Gap behind: 44.7 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:37 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:58 (3:48 / km)
Error: −3:21 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:39
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:41 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:18 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 34:37 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:35:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:45
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 56 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +47.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 15 Matthew Van Coller
RSA
+57 s
+77 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:50
37:50
 1:36:52
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Van Coller

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 12–14
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 18:54
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: -20.1 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:50 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:50 (3:47 / km)
Error: −2:00 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:54 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:18 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 35:50 (3:35 / km)
Total: 1:36:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:45
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 9.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +47.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 14 Maximilian Betts
NAM
+87 s
+20 s
G2 / G2
correct 		36:42
37:33
 1:37:44
Show details
Prediction details: Maximilian Betts

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 14–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +87 s
Time: 19:24
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 66.9 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -1.35 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 25.0 s
Gap behind: 10.6 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:42 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:33 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:51 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:44
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 19:24 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:18 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 36:42 (3:40 / km)
Total: 1:37:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:45
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 39.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +47.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 11 Tymon Horsten
POL
+62 s
+76 s
G2 / G2
correct 		36:50
35:15
 1:37:52
Show details
Prediction details: Tymon Horsten

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 12–16
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 18:59
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: -14.1 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 25.0 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:50 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:15 (3:32 / km)
Error: +1:35 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:59 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:18 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 36:50 (3:41 / km)
Total: 1:37:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:45
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 14.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +47.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 17 Conrad Visagie
RSA
+149 s
+174 s
G3 / G4
 33:54
39:17
 1:39:26
Show details
Prediction details: Conrad Visagie

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 15–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +149 s
Time: 20:26
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +174 s
Fehler: -25.5 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -1.15 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 44.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:54 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:17 (3:56 / km)
Error: −5:23 / −0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:26
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:26 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:04 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 33:54 (3:23 / km)
Total: 1:39:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:45
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 100.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +47.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 13 Adrien Toulet
MRI
+57 s
+0 s
G2 / G2
correct 		38:38
36:31
 1:39:40
Show details
Prediction details: Adrien Toulet

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 13–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 18:54
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 56.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:38 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:31 (3:39 / km)
Error: +2:07 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:54 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:18 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 38:38 (3:52 / km)
Total: 1:39:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:45
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 9.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +47.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.