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Elite Women

29.03.2026 Santos Beach, Mossel Bay, Western Cape RSA
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Africa Triathlon Premium Cup Mossel Bay

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 29.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 77/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 76 früheren Rennen und 1635 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 42.3 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 29.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 53.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 76 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.6
Mean swim error34.9 s
Mean bike-speed error2.46 km/h
Correct bike groups8/13
No history0
Within the 80% range76.9 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Jule Behrens
GER
+29 s
+80 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:42
36:01
 1:38:53
Show details
Prediction details: Jule Behrens

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 19:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +80 s
Fehler: -50.8 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:42 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 1.45 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:01 (3:36 / km)
Error: −1:19 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:41 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 34:42 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:38:53
2 / 1 Zuzana Michalickova
SVK
+23 s
+58 s
G1 / G1
correct 		37:52
35:57
 1:42:03
Show details
Prediction details: Zuzana Michalickova

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 19:43
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: -35.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 6.2 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:52 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.72 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:57 (3:36 / km)
Error: +1:55 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:43 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:41 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 37:52 (3:47 / km)
Total: 1:42:03
3 / 3 Shanae Williams
RSA
+46 s
+65 s
G2 / G1
 37:07
36:25
 1:42:41
Show details
Prediction details: Shanae Williams

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 20:06
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -18.8 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.8 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:07 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:25 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:42 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:06 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:36 (36.3 km/h)
Run: 37:07 (3:43 / km)
Total: 1:42:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:55
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 10.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4 Eleanor Beveridge
USA
+57 s
+75 s
G2 / G2
correct 		38:26
36:25
 1:44:00
Show details
Prediction details: Eleanor Beveridge

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 20:17
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +75 s
Fehler: -17.7 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.05 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.5 s
Gap behind: 29.8 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:26 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.50 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:25 (3:39 / km)
Error: +2:01 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:44:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:17 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:36 (36.3 km/h)
Run: 38:26 (3:51 / km)
Total: 1:44:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:55
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 22 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5 Myral Greco
TRI
+47 s
+71 s
G2 / G1
 38:34
38:37
 1:44:08
Show details
Prediction details: Myral Greco

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 20:07
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: -24.2 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 10.5 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:34 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:37 (3:52 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:44:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:07 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:36 (36.3 km/h)
Run: 38:34 (3:51 / km)
Total: 1:44:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:56
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 11.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 6 Bridget Theunissen
RSA
+89 s
+119 s
G3 / G3
correct 		37:53
37:48
 1:44:30
Show details
Prediction details: Bridget Theunissen

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +89 s
Time: 20:49
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +119 s
Fehler: -30.3 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 7.3 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:53 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:48 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:44:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:49 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:09 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 37:53 (3:47 / km)
Total: 1:44:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:56
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 53.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7 Hannah Newman
RSA
+87 s
+81 s
G3 / G2
 39:19
39:55
 1:45:56
Show details
Prediction details: Hannah Newman

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +87 s
Time: 20:47
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +81 s
Fehler: 6.1 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 29.8 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:19 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.93 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:55 (4:00 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:47 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:09 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 39:19 (3:56 / km)
Total: 1:45:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 35.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +51.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 9 Caroline Theil
USA
+23 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		42:01
44:12
 1:46:12
Show details
Prediction details: Caroline Theil

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 19:43
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 22.9 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:01 (4:12 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.68 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:12 (4:25 / km)
Error: −2:11 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:46:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:43 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:41 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 42:01 (4:12 / km)
Total: 1:46:12
9 / 8 Kira Gupta-Baltazar
CAN
+29 s
+68 s
G1 / G1
correct 		44:17
41:29
 1:48:28
Show details
Prediction details: Kira Gupta-Baltazar

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 9–12
Top-10 probability: 78 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 19:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: -38.6 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 16.8 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:17 (4:26 / km)
Historical basis: 4:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:29 (4:09 / km)
Error: +2:48 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:48:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:41 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 44:17 (4:26 / km)
Total: 1:48:28
10 / 10 Karla Grobler
RSA
+105 s
+146 s
G4 / G4
correct 		41:29
42:22
 1:48:39
Show details
Prediction details: Karla Grobler

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 8–11
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +105 s
Time: 21:05
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +146 s
Fehler: -41.2 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.3 s
Gap behind: 105.5 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:29 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:22 (4:14 / km)
Error: −0:53 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:48:39
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 21:05 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:25 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 41:29 (4:09 / km)
Total: 1:48:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:56
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 69.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 12 Danica Van Jaarsveld
RSA
+96 s
+129 s
G4 / G6
 42:02
42:56
 1:49:12
Show details
Prediction details: Danica Van Jaarsveld

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 9–12
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +96 s
Time: 20:56
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +129 s
Fehler: -33.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.3 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:02 (4:12 / km)
Historical basis: 4:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:56 (4:18 / km)
Error: −0:54 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:49:12
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:56 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:25 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 42:02 (4:12 / km)
Total: 1:49:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:55
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 60.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 13 Kirsten Engelbrecht
RSA
+100 s
+74 s
G4 / G7
 42:29
44:23
 1:49:39
Show details
Prediction details: Kirsten Engelbrecht

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 10–12
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +100 s
Time: 21:00
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: 25.5 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 5.3 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 29.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:29 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:23 (4:26 / km)
Error: −1:54 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:49:39
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:00 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:25 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 42:29 (4:15 / km)
Total: 1:49:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:56
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 64.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 11 Thana Groenewald
RSA
+210 s
+320 s
G5 / G5
correct 		43:53
42:24
 1:51:18
Show details
Prediction details: Thana Groenewald

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +210 s
Time: 22:50
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +320 s
Fehler: -109.7 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 105.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 43:53 (4:23 / km)
Historical basis: 4:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.96 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:24 (4:14 / km)
Error: +1:29 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:51:18
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 22:50 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:55 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 43:53 (4:23 / km)
Total: 1:51:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:55
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 175 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.