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Elite Men

21.03.2026 NAM
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Africa Triathlon Premium Cup Swakopmund

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 94/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 73 früheren Rennen und 1464 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 43.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 88.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 96.3 % · 73 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.7
Mean swim error16.8 s
Mean bike-speed error4.81 km/h
Correct bike groups8/27
No history0
Within the 80% range48.1 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 6 Lasse Nygaard Priester
GER
+28 s
+62 s
G1 / G2
 14:14
14:26
 42:44
Show details
Prediction details: Lasse Nygaard Priester

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: -33.9 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 57 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:14 (2:51 / km)
Historical basis: 2:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:26 (2:53 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 42:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 14:14 (2:51 / km)
Total: 42:44
2 / 5 Valentin Wernz
GER
+22 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:00
15:14
 43:30
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Wernz

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 10.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 74 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:00 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 15:00 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:30
3 / 1 Benedikt Bettin
GER
+23 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:07
14:44
 43:37
Show details
Prediction details: Benedikt Bettin

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 18.7 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:44 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Total: 43:37
4 / 14 Julian Birkel
RSA
+22 s
+24 s
G1 / G3
 15:15
15:14
 43:45
Show details
Prediction details: Julian Birkel

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -2.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 77 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:15 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 65 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 43:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 15:15 (3:03 / km)
Total: 43:45
5 / 3 Panagiotis Bitados
GRE
+19 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:17
14:49
 43:47
Show details
Prediction details: Panagiotis Bitados

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 15.1 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:17 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:49 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 15:17 (3:03 / km)
Total: 43:47
6 / 11 Justus Töpper
GER
+24 s
+24 s
G1 / G2
 15:36
15:10
 44:06
Show details
Prediction details: Justus Töpper

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -0.1 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 44:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Total: 44:06
7 / 17 Tristen Jones
CAN
+35 s
+28 s
G1 / G3
 15:47
15:43
 44:17
Show details
Prediction details: Tristen Jones

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–19
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 6.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 73 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 6.1 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:43 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:17
8 / 20 Luke McCarron
IRL
+31 s
+30 s
G1 / G5
 15:53
15:00
 44:23
Show details
Prediction details: Luke McCarron

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–18
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 1.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:53 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:00 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:53 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 44:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 15:53 (3:11 / km)
Total: 44:23
9 / 18 William Pearson Inman
RSA
+28 s
+39 s
G1 / G3
 16:04
15:58
 44:34
Show details
Prediction details: William Pearson Inman

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–15
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -11.5 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.93 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:34
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Total: 44:34
10 / 4 Matthew Wright
BAR
+29 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:09
14:59
 44:39
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Wright

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–19
Top-10 probability: 38 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 22.7 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 50 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:59 (3:00 / km)
Error: +1:10 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 44:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Total: 44:39
11 / 13 Ayan Beisenbayev
KAZ
+34 s
+33 s
G1 / G3
 16:13
14:58
 44:43
Show details
Prediction details: Ayan Beisenbayev

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 10–19
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 0.9 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 64 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Error: +1:15 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 44:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km)
Total: 44:43
12 / 2 Lasse Lührs
GER
+12 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:20
14:48
 44:50
Show details
Prediction details: Lasse Lührs

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 10–15
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 11.7 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.7 s
Gap behind: 4.4 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:48 (2:58 / km)
Error: +1:32 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 44:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km)
Total: 44:50
13 / 9 Gültigin Er
TUR
+20 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:20
15:47
 44:50
Show details
Prediction details: Gültigin Er

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 8–19
Top-10 probability: 29 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 16.0 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 44:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km)
Total: 44:50
14 / 12 Luke Holmes
GBR
+16 s
+17 s
G1 / G2
 16:21
15:30
 44:51
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Holmes

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 4–21
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -0.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.4 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:51 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 44:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Total: 44:51
15 / 16 Itamar Eshed
ISR
+47 s
+32 s
G2 / G3
 15:31
15:41
 44:58
Show details
Prediction details: Itamar Eshed

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 7–16
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 15.3 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 10.6 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 44:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:40 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Total: 44:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 9.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 15 Enes Kizilcik
TUR
+24 s
+11 s
G1 / G2
 16:48
16:12
 45:18
Show details
Prediction details: Enes Kizilcik

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 13–20
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 13.3 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:48 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:12 (3:14 / km)
Error: +0:36 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 45:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 16:48 (3:22 / km)
Total: 45:18
17 / 7 Martin Demuth
CZE
+3 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:55
15:35
 45:25
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Demuth

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 14–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 8:45
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: -4.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 8.7 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:55 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Error: +1:20 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 45:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:45 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 16:55 (3:23 / km)
Total: 45:25
18 / 8 Zach Leachman
USA
+81 s
+25 s
G4 / G3
 14:38
14:08
 45:31
Show details
Prediction details: Zach Leachman

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 13–20
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 55.9 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.4 s
Gap behind: 22.3 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:40 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:08 (2:50 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 45:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:32 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Total: 45:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 42.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 10 Tyler Smith
BER
+59 s
+56 s
G3 / G2
 15:57
15:08
 45:42
Show details
Prediction details: Tyler Smith

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 14–21
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 2.9 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -1.41 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 5.6 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:57 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:49 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 45:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:47 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 15:57 (3:11 / km)
Total: 45:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 20.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 19 Matthew Van Coller
RSA
+44 s
+40 s
G2 / G3
 17:03
16:01
 46:30
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Van Coller

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 17–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 3.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Error: +1:02 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 46:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:40 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Total: 46:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 5.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 22 Daniel Gossow
USA
+58 s
+51 s
G3 / G4
 16:47
16:38
 46:32
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Gossow

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 18–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 6.9 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.6 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 46:32
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:47 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Total: 46:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 19.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 23 Tymon Horsten
POL
+41 s
+52 s
G2 / G5
 17:43
17:03
 47:10
Show details
Prediction details: Tymon Horsten

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 21–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: -11.4 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.1 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 47:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:40 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Total: 47:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 2.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 27 Pieterjan Van Der Merwe
RSA
+71 s
+132 s
G4 / G7
 16:26
17:44
 47:19
Show details
Prediction details: Pieterjan Van Der Merwe

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 22–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +71 s
Time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +132 s
Fehler: -61.5 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.85 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.0 s
Gap behind: 10.4 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:44 (3:33 / km)
Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 47:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:32 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Total: 47:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 32.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 26 Conrad Visagie
RSA
+103 s
+72 s
G5 / G6
 16:08
15:59
 49:20
Show details
Prediction details: Conrad Visagie

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 25–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +103 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: 31.2 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 22.3 s
Gap behind: 27.1 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 49:20
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:29 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Total: 49:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 65.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 24 Michael Hesse
RSA
+65 s
+59 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:29
17:15
 49:22
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Hesse

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 25–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: 5.5 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.85 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.6 s
Gap behind: 6.0 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Error: +1:14 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 49:22
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:32 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Total: 49:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 26.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 21 Jack Spence
RSA
+130 s
+55 s
G6 / G4
 16:21
16:01
 50:48
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Spence

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 27–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +130 s
Time: 10:52
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: 75.3 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.07 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 27.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 50:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:52 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:17 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Total: 50:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 92.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 25 Maximilian Betts
NAM
+22 s
+38 s
G1 / G4
17:31
Show details
Prediction details: Maximilian Betts

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -16.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (42.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable