Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

Elite Women

21.03.2026 NAM
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Africa Triathlon Premium Cup Swakopmund

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 96/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 69 früheren Rennen und 564 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 31.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 92.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 92.3 % · 69 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.9
Mean swim error15.6 s
Mean bike-speed error2.97 km/h
Correct bike groups1/13
No history0
Within the 80% range84.6 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Zuzana Michalickova
SVK
+8 s
+23 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:06
17:17
 48:56
Show details
Prediction details: Zuzana Michalickova

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: -15.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 7.5 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:06 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:17 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:42 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 17:06 (3:25 / km)
Total: 48:56
2 / 6 Myral Greco
TRI
+25 s
+39 s
G3 / G2
 17:24
18:43
 50:54
Show details
Prediction details: Myral Greco

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -14.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.89 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Error: −1:19 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 50:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:02 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Total: 50:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 11 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3 Eleanor Beveridge
USA
+44 s
+31 s
G4 / G2
 17:00
16:39
 51:09
Show details
Prediction details: Eleanor Beveridge

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 12.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 51:09
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:20 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Total: 51:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 29.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 2 Britney Brown
TRI
+16 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 18:35
17:29
 51:19
Show details
Prediction details: Britney Brown

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 15.5 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 7.5 s
Gap behind: 8.0 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:29 (3:30 / km)
Error: +1:06 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 51:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:28 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Total: 51:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 1.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 4 Shanae Williams
RSA
+28 s
+40 s
G3 / G2
 18:14
17:18
 51:44
Show details
Prediction details: Shanae Williams

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 1–9
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -11.6 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 7.5 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:56 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 51:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:02 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Total: 51:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 14.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5 Jule Behrens
GER
+24 s
+51 s
G3 / G2
 18:45
17:32
 52:15
Show details
Prediction details: Jule Behrens

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -27.5 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 8.0 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -1.38 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Error: +1:13 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 52:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:02 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Total: 52:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 9.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7 Kira Gupta-Baltazar
CAN
+27 s
+27 s
G3 / G1
 18:51
19:38
 52:21
Show details
Prediction details: Kira Gupta-Baltazar

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -0.5 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.68 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 1.24 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:38 (3:56 / km)
Error: −0:47 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 52:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:02 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Total: 52:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 12.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 8 Himeka Sato
JPN
+36 s
+60 s
G4 / G3
 19:12
18:03
 53:21
Show details
Prediction details: Himeka Sato

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–10
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -24.1 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 7.5 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:12 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Error: +1:09 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 53:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:20 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 19:12 (3:50 / km)
Total: 53:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 22 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 11 Caroline Theil
USA
+40 s
+10 s
G4 / G3
 20:46
20:01
 54:55
Show details
Prediction details: Caroline Theil

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–11
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 30.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 30.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:46 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:01 (4:00 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 54:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:20 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 20:46 (4:09 / km)
Total: 54:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 26.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 10 Iva Pavlovic
SRB
+49 s
+71 s
G4 / G2
 20:58
21:33
 55:07
Show details
Prediction details: Iva Pavlovic

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 9–13
Top-10 probability: 54 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: -21.7 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 7.7 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:58 (4:12 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:33 (4:19 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 55:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:20 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 20:58 (4:12 / km)
Total: 55:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 35.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 9 Henrika Parviainen
FIN
+47 s
+46 s
G4 / G2
 21:40
20:52
 55:49
Show details
Prediction details: Henrika Parviainen

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 9–13
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 1.1 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:40 (4:20 / km)
Historical basis: 4:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:52 (4:10 / km)
Error: +0:48 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 55:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:20 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 21:40 (4:20 / km)
Total: 55:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 33.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 12 Danica Van Jaarsveld
RSA
+57 s
+71 s
G5 / G4
 20:09
19:41
 58:25
Show details
Prediction details: Danica Van Jaarsveld

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–12
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:24
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: -14.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 7.7 s
Gap behind: 19.1 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:09 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:41 (3:56 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 58:25
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:19 (32.1 km/h)
Run: 20:09 (4:02 / km)
Total: 58:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 43.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 13 Andie Kuipers
ZIM
+76 s
+61 s
G6 / G4
 20:52
21:00
 59:45
Show details
Prediction details: Andie Kuipers

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 10–13
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 10:43
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: 15.1 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 19.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 30.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:52 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:00 (4:12 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 59:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:43 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:36 (31.8 km/h)
Run: 20:52 (4:10 / km)
Total: 59:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 62.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.