Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

Elite Men

14.06.2026 MRI
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Africa Triathlon Sprint Championships Blue Bay

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 90/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 34 früheren Rennen und 1057 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 52.4 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 89.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 34 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.5
Mean swim error23.9 s
Mean bike-speed error4.39 km/h
Correct bike groups5/19
No history0
Within the 80% range57.9 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Jawad Abdelmoula
MAR
+17 s
+3 s
G2 / G1
 14:51
13:27
 45:02
Show details
Prediction details: Jawad Abdelmoula

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 13.9 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:27 (2:41 / km)
Error: +1:24 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 45:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Total: 45:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 6.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2 Julian Birkel
RSA
+22 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 15:00
13:46
 45:11
Show details
Prediction details: Julian Birkel

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 14.9 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.98 %, Sicherheit 92 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 22.6 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:00 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:46 (2:45 / km)
Error: +1:14 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 45:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 15:00 (3:00 / km)
Total: 45:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 11.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 7 Zakaria Chtioui
TUN
+21 s
+35 s
G2 / G3
 16:14
15:52
 46:25
Show details
Prediction details: Zakaria Chtioui

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -13.8 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 1.44 %, Sicherheit 84 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 46:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Total: 46:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 10.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 3 Badr Siwane
MAR
+14 s
+0 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:36
14:53
 46:47
Show details
Prediction details: Badr Siwane

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 14.4 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 6.9 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:36 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 68 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Error: +1:43 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 46:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 16:36 (3:19 / km)
Total: 46:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 9 Mohamed Aziz Hamdi
TUN
+15 s
+35 s
G2 / G3
 16:45
16:00
 46:56
Show details
Prediction details: Mohamed Aziz Hamdi

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–10
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -20.0 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 46:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Total: 46:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 4.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5 Naim Mokhfi
ALG
+8 s
+12 s
G1 / G3
 18:01
15:43
 47:09
Show details
Prediction details: Naim Mokhfi

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 8:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: -4.5 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 6.9 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:43 (3:09 / km)
Error: +2:18 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 47:09
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:00 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Total: 47:09
7 / 14 Aiden Petersen
RSA
+19 s
+9 s
G2 / G3
 17:25
17:23
 47:36
Show details
Prediction details: Aiden Petersen

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 10.2 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 47:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Total: 47:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 8.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 10 Matthew Van Coller
RSA
+45 s
+48 s
G3 / G4
 16:30
15:50
 48:15
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Van Coller

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–10
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -3.5 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 22.6 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:30 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:50 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 48:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:00 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 16:30 (3:18 / km)
Total: 48:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 34.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 6 Jean Gael Laurent L`entete
MRI
+45 s
+42 s
G3 / G3
correct 		16:47
15:46
 48:32
Show details
Prediction details: Jean Gael Laurent L`entete

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–12
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 3.3 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 16.4 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 48:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:00 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Total: 48:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 34.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 13 Seifeddine Selmi
TUN
+45 s
+45 s
G3 / G3
correct 		16:54
16:56
 48:39
Show details
Prediction details: Seifeddine Selmi

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–12
Top-10 probability: 70 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: 0.1 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 90 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 84 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 48:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:00 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Total: 48:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 34.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 19 Nicholas Horne
RSA
+74 s
+89 s
G5 / G5
correct 		15:50
16:04
 49:50
Show details
Prediction details: Nicholas Horne

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 7–13
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +89 s
Fehler: -15.4 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:50 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 49:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:30 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 15:50 (3:10 / km)
Total: 49:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 63.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 4 Jack Spence
RSA
+108 s
+43 s
G6 / G3
 15:45
15:24
 49:57
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Spence

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 11–17
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +108 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 65.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.24 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.9 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:24 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:22 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Total: 49:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 98 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 12 Maximilian Betts
NAM
+62 s
+5 s
G4 / G1
 17:30
16:37
 50:23
Show details
Prediction details: Maximilian Betts

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 11–15
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 56.7 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.36 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 16.4 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Error: +0:53 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 50:23
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Total: 50:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 51.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 18 Oussama Berrouane
ALG
+65 s
+52 s
G4 / G3
 17:46
17:20
 50:39
Show details
Prediction details: Oussama Berrouane

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 12–16
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 12.6 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 50:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Total: 50:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 54.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 8 Eloi Adjavon
TOG
+110 s
+50 s
G6 / G3
 16:58
15:58
 51:10
Show details
Prediction details: Eloi Adjavon

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 12–18
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +110 s
Time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: 59.6 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Error: +1:00 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 51:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:22 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Total: 51:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 99.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 17 Joshua Steytler
RSA
+90 s
+55 s
G5 / G5
correct 		17:20
16:25
 51:20
Show details
Prediction details: Joshua Steytler

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 15–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +90 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: 34.9 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.7 s
Gap behind: 12.6 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.83 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:25 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:55 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 51:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:30 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Total: 51:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 79.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 16 Michael Hesse
RSA
+76 s
+49 s
G5 / G3
 17:21
17:28
 51:21
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Hesse

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 12–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: 26.7 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:28 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 51:21
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:30 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Total: 51:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 65.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 11 Remy Gerard
MRI
+78 s
+51 s
G5 / G2
 17:55
16:11
 51:55
Show details
Prediction details: Remy Gerard

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 15–18
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +78 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 27.2 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 11.7 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Error: +1:44 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 51:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:30 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Total: 51:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 67.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 15 Chad Uys
RSA
+103 s
+46 s
G6 / G3
 18:23
17:33
 52:35
Show details
Prediction details: Chad Uys

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 18–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +103 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 56.5 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -2.35 %, Sicherheit 77 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.6 s
Gap behind: 5.9 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 71 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:50 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 52:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:22 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Total: 52:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 92.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.