Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

U23 Women

14.06.2026 MRI
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Africa Triathlon Sprint Championships Blue Bay

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 67/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 45 früheren Rennen und 793 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 43.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 33.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 45 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.0
Mean swim error43.9 s
Mean bike-speed error3.90 km/h
Correct bike groups2/3
No history0
Within the 80% range33.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Kelsey Mitchell
AUS
+29 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:08
17:48
 52:45
Show details
Prediction details: Kelsey Mitchell

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 11:12
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 29.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 21.3 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 52:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:12 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:08 (35.2 km/h)
Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Total: 52:45
2 / 3 Nora Nouri
MAR
+50 s
+85 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:14
19:51
 1:00:01
Show details
Prediction details: Nora Nouri

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +85 s
Fehler: -34.7 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 21.3 s
Gap behind: 73.8 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:14 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:51 (3:58 / km)
Error: −0:37 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:01
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:33 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:43 (30.2 km/h)
Run: 19:14 (3:51 / km)
Total: 1:00:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:18
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 15.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Aimee Roux
RSA
+124 s
+56 s
G2 / G1
19:14
Show details
Prediction details: Aimee Roux

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +124 s
Time: 12:47
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 68.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 73.8 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:14 (3:51 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:47 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:43 (30.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:18
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 89.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.