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25-29 Open AG

05.07.2026 CHI
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Americas Triathlon Championships Antofagasta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 29/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 12 früheren Rennen und 194 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 2.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 05.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 12 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.0
Mean swim error445.0 s
Mean bike-speed error2.21 km/h
Correct bike groups0/1
No history4
Within the 80% range20.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 4 Christian Mondaca Vergara
CHI
+445 s
+0 s
G1 / G3
 56:34
50:10
 2:21:15
Show details
Prediction details: Christian Mondaca Vergara

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +445 s
Time: 31:47
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 445.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 56:34 (5:39 / km)
Historical basis: 5:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 50:10 (5:01 / km)
Error: +6:24 / +0:38 / km
Overall prediction: 2:21:15
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 31:47 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:17:16 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 56:34 (5:39 / km)
Total: 2:21:15
0 / 1 Roberto Yanez
CHI
+0 s
+249 s
G0 / G1
42:34
Show details
Prediction details: Roberto Yanez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 24:22
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +249 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:34 (4:15 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 24:22 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Felipe López
CHI
+0 s
+205 s
G0 / G2
44:08
Show details
Prediction details: Felipe López

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 24:22
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +205 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:08 (4:25 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 24:22 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Boris Ignacio
CHI
+0 s
+449 s
G0 / G4
41:53
Show details
Prediction details: Boris Ignacio

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 24:22
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +449 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:53 (4:11 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 24:22 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Marcial Olivares
CHI
+0 s
+724 s
G0 / G5
1:00:17
Show details
Prediction details: Marcial Olivares

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 24:22
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +724 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:00:17 (6:02 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 24:22 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.