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30-34 Open AG

05.07.2026 CHI
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Americas Triathlon Championships Antofagasta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 29/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 12 früheren Rennen und 194 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 2.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 05.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 12 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.0
Mean swim error267.0 s
Mean bike-speed error7.43 km/h
Correct bike groups1/1
No history4
Within the 80% range20.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 4 Ricardo Javier Bruna Cortes
CHI
+590 s
+323 s
G1 / G1
correct 		48:24
44:02
 2:17:26
Show details
Prediction details: Ricardo Javier Bruna Cortes

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +590 s
Time: 38:53
Pace: 2:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +323 s
Fehler: 267.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -7.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 48:24 (4:50 / km)
Historical basis: 4:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:02 (4:24 / km)
Error: +4:22 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 2:17:26
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 38:53 (2:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:19:12 (32.8 km/h)
Run: 48:24 (4:50 / km)
Total: 2:17:26
0 / 1 Jorge Gonzalez Espinoza
CHI
+0 s
+0 s
G0 / G2
39:01
Show details
Prediction details: Jorge Gonzalez Espinoza

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 29:03
Pace: 1:56 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:01 (3:54 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 29:03 (1:56 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Patricio Flores
CHI
+0 s
+197 s
G0 / G2
39:57
Show details
Prediction details: Patricio Flores

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 29:03
Pace: 1:56 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +197 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:57 (4:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 29:03 (1:56 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Ariel Colque Sanchez
BOL
+0 s
+188 s
G0 / G2
40:41
Show details
Prediction details: Ariel Colque Sanchez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 29:03
Pace: 1:56 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +188 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:41 (4:04 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 29:03 (1:56 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Josue Lagos
CHI
+0 s
+786 s
G0 / G3
54:22
Show details
Prediction details: Josue Lagos

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 29:03
Pace: 1:56 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +786 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 54:22 (5:26 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 29:03 (1:56 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.