Prediction comparison

45-49 Open AG

05.07.2026 CHI

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Americas Triathlon Championships Antofagasta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 29/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 12 früheren Rennen und 194 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 2.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 05.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 12 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.0

Mean swim error283.5 s

Mean bike-speed error2.42 km/h

Correct bike groups2/2

No history6

Within the 80% range50.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Rodrigo Pineda CHI	+540 s +322 s	G2 / G2 correct	40:30 40:13	1:58:59	Show details Prediction details: Rodrigo Pineda Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +540 s Time: 34:28 Pace: 2:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +322 s Fehler: 218.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Gap ahead: 191.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.44 km/h Running and total Run: 40:30 (4:03 / km) Historical basis: 4:03 / km Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 40:13 (4:01 / km) Error: +0:17 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 1:58:59 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 34:28 (2:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:09:29 (37.4 km/h) Run: 40:30 (4:03 / km) Total: 1:58:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 31:21 Pace: 2:05 / 100 m About 187.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +352.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2	Leonardo Bobadilla CHI	+0 s +59 s	G0 / G1	42:09		Show details Prediction details: Leonardo Bobadilla Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 25:28 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +59 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 37.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 42:09 (4:13 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 25:28 (1:42 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Jorge Fatigatti CHI	+0 s +407 s	G0 / G1	44:50		Show details Prediction details: Jorge Fatigatti Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 25:28 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +407 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 41.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 44:50 (4:29 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 25:28 (1:42 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Cristian Aspillaga Hurtado CHI	+349 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	47:02		Show details Prediction details: Cristian Aspillaga Hurtado Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +349 s Time: 31:17 Pace: 2:05 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 349.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 40.3 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 191.0 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.39 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 47:02 (4:42 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 31:17 (2:05 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:28 (40.3 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 5	Oscar Benavides CHI	+0 s +164 s	G0 / G3	46:48		Show details Prediction details: Oscar Benavides Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 25:28 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +164 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 34.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 46:48 (4:41 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 25:28 (1:42 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Enrique León CHI	+0 s +405 s	G0 / G4	47:00		Show details Prediction details: Enrique León Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 25:28 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +405 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 36.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 47:00 (4:42 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 25:28 (1:42 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Carlos Escobar CHI	+0 s +775 s	G0 / G5	1:11:39		Show details Prediction details: Carlos Escobar Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 25:28 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +775 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 38.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 1:11:39 (7:10 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 25:28 (1:42 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Dennys Marcel Sanches Martins BRA	+0 s +868 s	G0 / G6	1:11:25		Show details Prediction details: Dennys Marcel Sanches Martins Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 25:28 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +868 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 33.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 1:11:25 (7:09 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 25:28 (1:42 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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