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55-59 Open AG

05.07.2026 CHI
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Americas Triathlon Championships Antofagasta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 39/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 12 früheren Rennen und 194 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 2.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 05.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 20.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 12 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.0
Mean swim error722.1 s
Mean bike-speed error13.63 km/h
Correct bike groups1/2
No history3
Within the 80% range40.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Vicencio Antezana Pardo
CHI
+595 s
+67 s
G1 / G2
 54:36
46:57
 2:41:40
Show details
Prediction details: Vicencio Antezana Pardo

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +595 s
Time: 39:55
Pace: 2:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +67 s
Fehler: 528.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 26.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 320.9 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -13.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 54:36 (5:28 / km)
Historical basis: 5:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 46:57 (4:42 / km)
Error: +7:39 / +0:46 / km
Overall prediction: 2:41:40
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 39:55 (2:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:31:48 (26.9 km/h)
Run: 54:36 (5:28 / km)
Total: 2:41:40
2 / 3 Felipe Rojas Andrade
CHI
+916 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		1:03:36
47:32
 2:50:40
Show details
Prediction details: Felipe Rojas Andrade

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +916 s
Time: 45:16
Pace: 3:01 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 916.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 26.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 320.9 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -13.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:03:36 (6:22 / km)
Historical basis: 6:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 47:32 (4:45 / km)
Error: +16:04 / +1:36 / km
Overall prediction: 2:50:40
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 45:16 (3:01 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:31:48 (26.9 km/h)
Run: 1:03:36 (6:22 / km)
Total: 2:50:40
0 / 1 Pedro Santibañez Fritis
CHI
+0 s
+113 s
G0 / G3
41:37
Show details
Prediction details: Pedro Santibañez Fritis

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 30:00
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +113 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:37 (4:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 30:00 (2:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Andres Silva
CHI
+0 s
+11 s
G0 / G4
56:46
Show details
Prediction details: Andres Silva

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 30:00
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 56:46 (5:41 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 30:00 (2:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Marcelo Román
CHI
+0 s
+328 s
G0 / G5
1:02:31
Show details
Prediction details: Marcelo Román

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 30:00
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +328 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:02:31 (6:15 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 30:00 (2:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.