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Elite Women

04.07.2026 CHI
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Americas Triathlon Championships Antofagasta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 04.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 72/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 13 früheren Rennen und 165 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 48.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 04.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 84.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 13 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.9
Mean swim error24.6 s
Mean bike-speed error0.99 km/h
Correct bike groups14/38
No history0
Within the 80% range36.8 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 20 Giovanna Lacerda
BRA
+43 s
+102 s
G2 / G4
 29:13
36:28
 1:36:20
Show details
Prediction details: Giovanna Lacerda

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 20:12
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +102 s
Fehler: -59.4 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 216 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 4 (15 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:13 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 204 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:28 (3:39 / km)
Error: −7:15 / −0:43 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:12 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 29:13 (2:55 / km)
Total: 1:36:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 33.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2 Djenyfer Arnold
BRA
+18 s
+25 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:05
34:35
 1:42:12
Show details
Prediction details: Djenyfer Arnold

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 19:47
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -6.9 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:05 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur 1.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:35 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:47 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 35:05 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:42:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 9.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 1 Danielle Orie
USA
+29 s
+25 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:40
33:54
 1:42:47
Show details
Prediction details: Danielle Orie

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 19:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 4.3 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:40 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:54 (3:23 / km)
Error: +1:46 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 35:40 (3:34 / km)
Total: 1:42:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 20.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 7 Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal
MEX
+23 s
+24 s
G2 / G2
correct 		36:33
36:40
 1:43:40
Show details
Prediction details: Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 19:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -0.7 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 145 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 6.0 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:33 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 99 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:40 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:43:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 36:33 (3:39 / km)
Total: 1:43:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 14.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5 Vittoria Lopes
BRA
+3 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		39:04
37:36
 1:44:55
Show details
Prediction details: Vittoria Lopes

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 6–14
Top-10 probability: 59 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 14.0 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:04 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:36 (3:46 / km)
Error: +1:28 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:44:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:32 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:48 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 39:04 (3:54 / km)
Total: 1:44:55
6 / 27 Maria De Los Angeles Bonilla Garcia
ECU
+49 s
+119 s
G2 / G4
 37:50
37:52
 1:44:57
Show details
Prediction details: Maria De Los Angeles Bonilla Garcia

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–20
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 20:18
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +119 s
Fehler: -69.6 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur 0.75 %, Sicherheit 73 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (15 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:50 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 1.92 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:52 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:44:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:18 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 37:50 (3:47 / km)
Total: 1:44:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 40.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 4 Sidney Clement
CAN
+21 s
+22 s
G2 / G2
correct 		37:57
35:29
 1:45:04
Show details
Prediction details: Sidney Clement

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 19:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -0.8 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:57 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur 1.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:29 (3:33 / km)
Error: +2:28 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 37:57 (3:48 / km)
Total: 1:45:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
8 / 13 Cecilia Perez
MEX
+41 s
+65 s
G2 / G3
 37:59
37:13
 1:45:06
Show details
Prediction details: Cecilia Perez

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–12
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 20:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -24.1 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 97 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:59 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 127 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 73 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:13 (3:43 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 37:59 (3:48 / km)
Total: 1:45:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
9 / 10 Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto
COL
+34 s
+65 s
G2 / G3
 38:02
36:15
 1:45:09
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 20:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -31.3 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 175 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:02 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 174 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:15 (3:38 / km)
Error: +1:47 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 38:02 (3:48 / km)
Total: 1:45:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
10 / 11 Alexandra Campbell
CAN
+17 s
+22 s
G2 / G2
correct 		38:06
37:50
 1:45:13
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandra Campbell

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 19:46
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -5.0 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 68 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.0 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:06 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.97 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:50 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:46 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 38:06 (3:49 / km)
Total: 1:45:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 8.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 8 Eleanor Beveridge
USA
+59 s
+67 s
G3 / G3
correct 		36:39
35:40
 1:45:22
Show details
Prediction details: Eleanor Beveridge

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 4–18
Top-10 probability: 71 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 20:28
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +67 s
Fehler: -8.2 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 87 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:39 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 90 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:40 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:59 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:28 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:41 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 36:39 (3:40 / km)
Total: 1:45:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
12 / 29 Ellison Wolfe
USA
+61 s
+107 s
G3 / G4
 37:11
37:43
 1:45:54
Show details
Prediction details: Ellison Wolfe

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 6–14
Top-10 probability: 64 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 20:30
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +107 s
Fehler: -46.3 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 4 (15 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:11 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.93 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:43 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:30 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:41 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 37:11 (3:43 / km)
Total: 1:45:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 51.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 35 María Emilia Vargas
ARG
+55 s
+103 s
G2 / G4
 38:51
40:04
 1:45:58
Show details
Prediction details: María Emilia Vargas

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 10–23
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 20:24
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +103 s
Fehler: -47.8 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 4 (15 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:51 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:04 (4:00 / km)
Error: −1:13 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:24 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 38:51 (3:53 / km)
Total: 1:45:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 46.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 18 Luisa Daniela Baca Vargas
MEX
+46 s
+70 s
G2 / G4
 39:29
35:36
 1:46:36
Show details
Prediction details: Luisa Daniela Baca Vargas

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 12–24
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 20:15
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +70 s
Fehler: -24.0 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 4 (15 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:29 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:36 (3:34 / km)
Error: +3:53 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 1:46:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:15 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 39:29 (3:57 / km)
Total: 1:46:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 37.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 9 Marcela Alvarez Solis
MEX
+40 s
+22 s
G2 / G2
correct 		39:34
37:20
 1:46:41
Show details
Prediction details: Marcela Alvarez Solis

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–17
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 20:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 17.6 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 165 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:34 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 162 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:20 (3:44 / km)
Error: +2:14 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:46:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 39:34 (3:57 / km)
Total: 1:46:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 30.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 15 Daniela Moya Chamorro
CHI
+43 s
+58 s
G2 / G3
 39:59
37:31
 1:47:06
Show details
Prediction details: Daniela Moya Chamorro

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 13–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 20:12
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: -14.9 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 214 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:59 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 206 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:31 (3:45 / km)
Error: +2:28 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:47:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:12 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 39:59 (4:00 / km)
Total: 1:47:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 34.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 16 Leslie Amat Alvarez
CUB
+41 s
+21 s
G2 / G2
correct 		40:49
39:11
 1:47:56
Show details
Prediction details: Leslie Amat Alvarez

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 16–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 20:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 19.5 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:49 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:11 (3:55 / km)
Error: +1:38 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:47:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 40:49 (4:05 / km)
Total: 1:47:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 31.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 22 Sofia Rodriguez Moreno
MEX
+50 s
+120 s
G2 / G4
 41:01
37:04
 1:48:08
Show details
Prediction details: Sofia Rodriguez Moreno

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 18–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 20:19
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +120 s
Fehler: -70.4 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 174 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 5.4 s
Result: Group 4 (15 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:01 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 167 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:04 (3:42 / km)
Error: +3:57 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 1:48:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:19 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 41:01 (4:06 / km)
Total: 1:48:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 40.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 6 Elizabeth Bravo
ECU
+59 s
+68 s
G3 / G3
correct 		39:33
34:56
 1:48:16
Show details
Prediction details: Elizabeth Bravo

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 12–26
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 20:28
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: -9.4 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 155 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:33 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 148 Duelle, Korrektur -0.86 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:56 (3:30 / km)
Error: +4:37 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 1:48:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:28 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:41 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 39:33 (3:57 / km)
Total: 1:48:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 50.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 17 Gianella Debra Coaguila Pita
PER
+29 s
+26 s
G2 / G2
correct 		41:15
39:08
 1:48:22
Show details
Prediction details: Gianella Debra Coaguila Pita

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 14–27
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 19:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 3.4 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:15 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:08 (3:55 / km)
Error: +2:07 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:48:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 41:15 (4:08 / km)
Total: 1:48:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
21 / 26 Sofia De Rosas
ARG
+45 s
+45 s
G2 / G3
 41:34
40:13
 1:48:41
Show details
Prediction details: Sofia De Rosas

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 11–30
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 20:14
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -0.4 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:34 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:13 (4:01 / km)
Error: +1:21 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:48:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:14 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 41:34 (4:09 / km)
Total: 1:48:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 35.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 34 Zoe Adam
PUR
+61 s
+20 s
G3 / G2
 39:59
43:42
 1:48:42
Show details
Prediction details: Zoe Adam

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 14–28
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 20:30
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 41.0 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:59 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:36 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 85 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:42 (4:22 / km)
Error: −3:43 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 1:48:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:30 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:41 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 39:59 (4:00 / km)
Total: 1:48:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
23 / 3 Naomi Ruff
USA
+34 s
+26 s
G2 / G2
correct 		42:20
35:19
 1:49:27
Show details
Prediction details: Naomi Ruff

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 20–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 20:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 7.5 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:20 (4:14 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 131 Duelle, Korrektur -1.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:19 (3:32 / km)
Error: +7:01 / +0:42 / km
Overall prediction: 1:49:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 42:20 (4:14 / km)
Total: 1:49:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
24 / 25 Raquel Solis
CRC
+35 s
+69 s
G2 / G4
 42:21
37:39
 1:49:28
Show details
Prediction details: Raquel Solis

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 21–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 20:04
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +69 s
Fehler: -34.1 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 189 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 4.7 s
Result: Group 4 (15 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:21 (4:14 / km)
Historical basis: 4:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 187 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:39 (3:46 / km)
Error: +4:42 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 1:49:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:04 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 42:21 (4:14 / km)
Total: 1:49:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
25 / 31 Dominga Elena Jacome Espinoza
CHI
+40 s
+68 s
G2 / G3
 42:25
40:19
 1:49:32
Show details
Prediction details: Dominga Elena Jacome Espinoza

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 21–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 20:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: -28.2 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 157 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:25 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 151 Duelle, Korrektur -0.99 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:19 (4:02 / km)
Error: +2:06 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:49:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 42:25 (4:15 / km)
Total: 1:49:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 30.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 36 Ava Snyder
CAN
+43 s
+70 s
G2 / G4
 42:52
40:41
 1:49:59
Show details
Prediction details: Ava Snyder

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 12–34
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 20:12
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +70 s
Fehler: -26.9 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 4 (15 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:52 (4:17 / km)
Historical basis: 4:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 1.28 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:41 (4:04 / km)
Error: +2:11 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:49:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:12 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 42:52 (4:17 / km)
Total: 1:49:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 34.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 37 Macarena Salazar
CHI
+60 s
+87 s
G3 / G4
 41:30
41:18
 1:50:13
Show details
Prediction details: Macarena Salazar

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 17–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 20:29
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +87 s
Fehler: -26.9 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 4 (15 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:30 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:18 (4:08 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:50:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:29 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:41 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 41:30 (4:09 / km)
Total: 1:50:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
28 / 28 Gabrielle Lemes
BRA
+93 s
+104 s
G4 / G4
correct 		39:18
37:53
 1:50:22
Show details
Prediction details: Gabrielle Lemes

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 23–33
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +93 s
Time: 21:02
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +104 s
Fehler: -11.1 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 165 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 16.6 s
Result: Group 4 (15 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:18 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 163 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:53 (3:47 / km)
Error: +1:25 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:50:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:02 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:09:31 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 39:18 (3:56 / km)
Total: 1:50:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
29 / 33 Molly Lakustiak
CAN
+89 s
+71 s
G4 / G4
correct 		39:49
38:28
 1:50:53
Show details
Prediction details: Molly Lakustiak

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 16–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +89 s
Time: 20:58
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: 17.7 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 4 (15 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:49 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:28 (3:51 / km)
Error: +1:21 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:50:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:58 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:09:31 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 39:49 (3:59 / km)
Total: 1:50:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 79.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 12 Rafaela Capó
CHI
+35 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 44:00
40:16
 1:51:07
Show details
Prediction details: Rafaela Capó

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 26–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 20:04
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 34.6 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:00 (4:24 / km)
Historical basis: 4:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:16 (4:02 / km)
Error: +3:44 / +0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 1:51:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:04 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 44:00 (4:24 / km)
Total: 1:51:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
31 / 23 Julia Visgueiro
BRA
+55 s
+83 s
G2 / G4
 44:38
37:11
 1:51:45
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Visgueiro

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 29–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 20:24
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +83 s
Fehler: -28.0 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 125 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (15 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:38 (4:28 / km)
Historical basis: 4:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur -1.75 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:11 (3:43 / km)
Error: +7:27 / +0:45 / km
Overall prediction: 1:51:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:24 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 44:38 (4:28 / km)
Total: 1:51:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 46.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 38 Amanda Moro
BRA
+86 s
+122 s
G4 / G5
 40:57
48:42
 1:52:01
Show details
Prediction details: Amanda Moro

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 22–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +86 s
Time: 20:55
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +122 s
Fehler: -35.7 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 73 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.6 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:57 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 48:42 (4:52 / km)
Error: −7:45 / −0:46 / km
Overall prediction: 1:52:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:55 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:09:31 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 40:57 (4:06 / km)
Total: 1:52:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
33 / 30 Julia Maria Alcala Rosales
HON
+62 s
+103 s
G3 / G4
 44:44
38:02
 1:53:27
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Maria Alcala Rosales

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 30–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 20:31
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +103 s
Fehler: -40.9 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 16.6 s
Result: Group 4 (15 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:44 (4:28 / km)
Historical basis: 4:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 130 Duelle, Korrektur -1.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:02 (3:48 / km)
Error: +6:42 / +0:40 / km
Overall prediction: 1:53:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:31 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:41 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 44:44 (4:28 / km)
Total: 1:53:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
34 / 32 Catalina Torres Espinoza
CRC
+59 s
+69 s
G3 / G4
 44:47
38:22
 1:53:30
Show details
Prediction details: Catalina Torres Espinoza

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 29–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 20:28
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +69 s
Fehler: -10.4 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 154 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (15 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:47 (4:29 / km)
Historical basis: 4:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 144 Duelle, Korrektur -1.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:22 (3:50 / km)
Error: +6:25 / +0:39 / km
Overall prediction: 1:53:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:28 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:41 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 44:47 (4:29 / km)
Total: 1:53:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
35 / 21 Barbara Riveros
CHI
+49 s
+67 s
G2 / G3
 48:57
39:15
 1:56:04
Show details
Prediction details: Barbara Riveros

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 35–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 20:18
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +67 s
Fehler: -17.9 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 48:57 (4:54 / km)
Historical basis: 5:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:15 (3:56 / km)
Error: +9:42 / +0:58 / km
Overall prediction: 1:56:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:18 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:12 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 48:57 (4:54 / km)
Total: 1:56:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 40.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 14 Camila Victoria Alcala Rosales
HON
+79 s
+64 s
G4 / G3
 45:04
37:14
 1:56:08
Show details
Prediction details: Camila Victoria Alcala Rosales

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 33–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +79 s
Time: 20:48
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: 14.7 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 149 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.6 s
Gap behind: 7.6 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 45:04 (4:30 / km)
Historical basis: 4:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 143 Duelle, Korrektur -1.73 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:14 (3:43 / km)
Error: +7:50 / +0:47 / km
Overall prediction: 1:56:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:48 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:09:31 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 45:04 (4:30 / km)
Total: 1:56:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 69.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 24 Gabriela Machado Penteado
BRA
+120 s
+69 s
G6 / G3
 41:36
40:08
 1:58:44
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriela Machado Penteado

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 33–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +120 s
Time: 21:29
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +69 s
Fehler: 51.1 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -1.16 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:36 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 1.05 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:08 (4:01 / km)
Error: +1:28 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:58:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:29 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:15:08 (34.5 km/h)
Run: 41:36 (4:10 / km)
Total: 1:58:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 111.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 19 Sofia Gelati
BRA
+110 s
+67 s
G5 / G3
 44:04
38:19
 1:59:37
Show details
Prediction details: Sofia Gelati

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 35–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +110 s
Time: 21:19
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +67 s
Fehler: 42.5 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.6 s
Gap behind: 10.6 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:04 (4:24 / km)
Historical basis: 4:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:19 (3:50 / km)
Error: +5:45 / +0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 1:59:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:19 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:13:44 (35.2 km/h)
Run: 44:04 (4:24 / km)
Total: 1:59:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 100.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.