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Junior Men

04.07.2026 CHI
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Americas Triathlon Championships Antofagasta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 04.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 69/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 35 früheren Rennen und 753 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 47.1 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 04.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 5 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 45.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 84.9 % · 35 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error16.8
Mean swim error27.9 s
Mean bike-speed error1.79 km/h
Correct bike groups23/50
No history3
Within the 80% range13.2 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Thomas Francisco Chica Perez
ECU
+29 s
+30 s
G2 / G1
 14:17
15:23
 45:08
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Francisco Chica Perez

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 11–12
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -1.2 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:17 (2:51 / km)
Historical basis: 2:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 1.72 %, Sicherheit 81 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Error: −1:06 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 45:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 14:17 (2:51 / km)
Total: 45:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 15.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 22 Jesus Daniel Hernández Bobadilla
MEX
+54 s
+31 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:40
16:11
 46:31
Show details
Prediction details: Jesus Daniel Hernández Bobadilla

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 12–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 22.6 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 66 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 46:31
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Total: 46:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
3 / 18 Alessandro Diego Cortez Delgado
MEX
+8 s
+26 s
G1 / G2
 15:55
15:28
 46:38
Show details
Prediction details: Alessandro Diego Cortez Delgado

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 12–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -18.4 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.6 s
Gap behind: 10.4 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 46:38
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:36 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Total: 46:38
4 / 1 Robi Racine
CAN
+37 s
+13 s
G2 / G1
 15:50
15:18
 46:41
Show details
Prediction details: Robi Racine

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 12–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 23.9 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:50 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 46:41
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 15:50 (3:10 / km)
Total: 46:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 24 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 9 Matteo Somma
USA
+48 s
+25 s
G2 / G1
 16:13
15:56
 47:04
Show details
Prediction details: Matteo Somma

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 14–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 22.9 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 79 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 73 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:04
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km)
Total: 47:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 35.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 26 Gerald Rojas Carvajal
CRC
+35 s
+48 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:14
16:10
 47:05
Show details
Prediction details: Gerald Rojas Carvajal

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 12–27
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -13.5 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 47:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Total: 47:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 22 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 5 Pablo Joel Calderon Garcia
MEX
+20 s
+16 s
G2 / G1
 16:24
15:41
 47:15
Show details
Prediction details: Pablo Joel Calderon Garcia

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 15–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 4.1 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:43 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 47:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km)
Total: 47:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 7.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 24 Jhon Matias Tuesta Castro
ECU
+38 s
+63 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:28
16:10
 47:19
Show details
Prediction details: Jhon Matias Tuesta Castro

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 16–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +63 s
Fehler: -25.3 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 2.49 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 47:19
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Total: 47:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 25.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 25 Olivier Houle
CAN
+44 s
+51 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:28
16:18
 47:19
Show details
Prediction details: Olivier Houle

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 16–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -7.2 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 47:19
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Total: 47:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 27.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 12 Sebastian Zurob
CHI
+26 s
+24 s
G2 / G1
 16:32
16:15
 47:23
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastian Zurob

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 14–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 1.5 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Total: 47:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 12.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 29 Enrique Pau
CHI
+38 s
+41 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:33
16:33
 47:24
Show details
Prediction details: Enrique Pau

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 16–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -2.7 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 47:24
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Total: 47:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 25.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 41 Diego Alessandro Sanchez Felix
PER
+32 s
+51 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:41
18:01
 47:32
Show details
Prediction details: Diego Alessandro Sanchez Felix

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 18–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -29

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -19.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Error: −1:20 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 47:32
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Total: 47:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 19.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 2 Nicolas Alejandro Calvopiña Castellano
ECU
+46 s
+25 s
G2 / G1
 16:45
15:13
 47:36
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolas Alejandro Calvopiña Castellano

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 12–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 21.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 68 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Error: +1:32 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 47:36
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Total: 47:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 33.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 7 Luis Miguel Chávez Sanchez
MEX
+38 s
+2 s
G2 / G1
 16:49
15:54
 47:40
Show details
Prediction details: Luis Miguel Chávez Sanchez

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 16–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 36.0 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:55 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 47:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Total: 47:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 25.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 14 Raziel Geovanni Muñoz Tun
MEX
+39 s
+30 s
G2 / G1
 17:05
16:40
 47:56
Show details
Prediction details: Raziel Geovanni Muñoz Tun

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 15–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 9.4 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 97 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:05 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 79 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 47:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 17:05 (3:25 / km)
Total: 47:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
16 / 17 Raimundo Vicente San Martín Naranjo
CHI
+38 s
+25 s
G2 / G1
 17:08
17:31
 47:59
Show details
Prediction details: Raimundo Vicente San Martín Naranjo

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 21–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 12.5 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 93 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:08 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 2.48 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 47:59
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 17:08 (3:26 / km)
Total: 47:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 25.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 38 Antonio Alejandro Soria Mesa
ECU
+22 s
+58 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:29
17:38
 48:20
Show details
Prediction details: Antonio Alejandro Soria Mesa

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 22–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: -35.9 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 1.64 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:29 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:38 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:20
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 17:29 (3:30 / km)
Total: 48:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 1.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 20 Alejandro Pérez Monterd
MEX
+37 s
+59 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:51
15:55
 48:42
Show details
Prediction details: Alejandro Pérez Monterd

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 26–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: -22.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Error: +1:56 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 48:42
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Total: 48:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 24.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 4 Graham Hummel
USA
+41 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 17:51
15:21
 48:42
Show details
Prediction details: Graham Hummel

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 19–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 40.9 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 89 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 84 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Error: +2:30 / +0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 48:42
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Total: 48:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 28 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 47 Christiaan Jansen
ARU
+62 s
+75 s
G2 / G3
 18:07
17:21
 48:58
Show details
Prediction details: Christiaan Jansen

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 26–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +75 s
Fehler: -13.1 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 90 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 48:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Total: 48:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 47 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 43 Gaspar Reyes
CHI
+53 s
+42 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:13
18:37
 49:04
Show details
Prediction details: Gaspar Reyes

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 28–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 10.5 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:37 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 49:04
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Total: 49:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 39.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 23 Wills Gillis
USA
+55 s
+49 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:14
16:08
 49:05
Show details
Prediction details: Wills Gillis

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 28–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: 6.1 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Error: +2:06 / +0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 49:05
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Total: 49:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 42.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 11 Athur Pereira Morer
BRA
+30 s
+31 s
G2 / G1
 18:19
16:07
 49:10
Show details
Prediction details: Athur Pereira Morer

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 28–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -1.1 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -1.16 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:07 (3:13 / km)
Error: +2:12 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 49:10
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Total: 49:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 17.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 36 Oliver Hayward
BER
+38 s
+22 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:24
17:48
 49:15
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Hayward

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 29–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 15.7 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.90 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:24 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.00 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:36 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 49:15
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 18:24 (3:41 / km)
Total: 49:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 25.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 8 Luke McIntyre
BAR
+42 s
+26 s
G2 / G1
 18:30
15:52
 49:21
Show details
Prediction details: Luke McIntyre

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 30–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 16.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:30 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Error: +2:38 / +0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 49:21
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 18:30 (3:42 / km)
Total: 49:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 29.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 50 Dylan Giel
ARU
+59 s
+77 s
G2 / G3
 18:52
18:36
 49:43
Show details
Prediction details: Dylan Giel

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 32–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: -17.6 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:36 (3:43 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 49:43
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Total: 49:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 46.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 30 Walter Steffen
USA
+48 s
+69 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:56
16:33
 49:47
Show details
Prediction details: Walter Steffen

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 34–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +69 s
Fehler: -21.2 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:56 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Error: +2:23 / +0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 49:47
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 18:56 (3:47 / km)
Total: 49:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 31.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 27 Sergio Campos Hernandez
CRC
+57 s
+53 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:04
16:09
 49:55
Show details
Prediction details: Sergio Campos Hernandez

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 35–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: 3.7 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 79 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:04 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -1.86 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Error: +2:55 / +0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 49:55
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 19:04 (3:49 / km)
Total: 49:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 44.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 19 Caden Hubers
CAN
+50 s
+43 s
G2 / G1
 19:07
17:43
 49:58
Show details
Prediction details: Caden Hubers

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 26–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 7.3 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:07 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Error: +1:24 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 49:58
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 19:07 (3:49 / km)
Total: 49:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 37.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 48 Santino Calderón Lucoratolo
ARG
+104 s
+81 s
G3 / G3
correct 		15:59
18:09
 50:11
Show details
Prediction details: Santino Calderón Lucoratolo

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 33–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +104 s
Time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +81 s
Fehler: 23.2 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.4 s
Gap behind: 20.1 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 1.67 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Error: −2:10 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 50:11
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:00 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:28 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Total: 50:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 91.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 35 Maximiliano Bobadilla
CHI
+67 s
+67 s
G3 / G2
 16:06
17:40
 50:18
Show details
Prediction details: Maximiliano Bobadilla

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 19–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +67 s
Fehler: -0.5 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Error: −1:34 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 50:18
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:28 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Total: 50:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 54 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 16 Jesus David Salazar Severino
COL
+39 s
+21 s
G2 / G1
 19:30
17:15
 50:21
Show details
Prediction details: Jesus David Salazar Severino

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 36–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 17.6 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.22 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -2.04 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Error: +2:15 / +0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 50:21
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km)
Total: 50:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 26.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 15 Nathanael Hamilton
USA
+33 s
+26 s
G2 / G1
 19:50
16:55
 50:41
Show details
Prediction details: Nathanael Hamilton

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 38–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 7.1 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:50 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.68 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:55 (3:23 / km)
Error: +2:55 / +0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 50:41
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 19:50 (3:58 / km)
Total: 50:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 20.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 6 Brice Allen
USA
+39 s
+25 s
G2 / G1
 19:56
15:44
 50:47
Show details
Prediction details: Brice Allen

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 39–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 28

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 13.8 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:56 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:44 (3:09 / km)
Error: +4:12 / +0:50 / km
Overall prediction: 50:47
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 19:56 (3:59 / km)
Total: 50:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 26.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 21 Eduardo Staniaski Gonçalves
BRA
+51 s
+71 s
G2 / G2
correct 		20:20
15:56
 51:11
Show details
Prediction details: Eduardo Staniaski Gonçalves

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 42–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: -20.1 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:20 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Error: +4:24 / +0:53 / km
Overall prediction: 51:11
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 20:20 (4:04 / km)
Total: 51:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 38.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 42 Elliot Hamilton
USA
+43 s
+72 s
G2 / G2
correct 		20:24
18:30
 51:15
Show details
Prediction details: Elliot Hamilton

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 41–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: -29.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:24 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:30 (3:42 / km)
Error: +1:54 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 51:15
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 20:24 (4:05 / km)
Total: 51:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 30.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 28 Ignacio Ernesto Braga Giménez
ARG
+84 s
+29 s
G3 / G2
 18:13
16:37
 52:25
Show details
Prediction details: Ignacio Ernesto Braga Giménez

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 36–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +84 s
Time: 10:40
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 54.8 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -1.56 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.8 s
Gap behind: 20.4 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.08 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Error: +1:36 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 52:25
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:28 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Total: 52:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 71.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 49 Angel Julian Vilema Cobos
ECU
+69 s
+66 s
G3 / G3
correct 		18:37
18:05
 52:49
Show details
Prediction details: Angel Julian Vilema Cobos

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 38–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 49
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 1.30 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:37 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 52:49
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:28 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 18:37 (3:43 / km)
Total: 52:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 56.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 51 Leandro Alfonso Martinez
URU
+71 s
+78 s
G3 / G3
correct 		20:28
19:19
 54:40
Show details
Prediction details: Leandro Alfonso Martinez

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 47–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 51
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +71 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +78 s
Fehler: -7.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 12.8 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:28 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.86 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:19 (3:52 / km)
Error: +1:09 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 54:40
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:28 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 20:28 (4:06 / km)
Total: 54:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 58.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 39 Juan Marcos Aristizabal Ortiz
CHI
+214 s
+54 s
G5 / G2
 17:30
17:38
 1:01:54
Show details
Prediction details: Juan Marcos Aristizabal Ortiz

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 50–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +214 s
Time: 12:50
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: 160.4 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.4 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -10.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:38 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:54
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 12:50 (1:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:49 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:01:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 201.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 10 Emiliano Magno Vargas Carrasco
MEX
+0 s
+26 s
G0 / G1
16:06
Show details
Prediction details: Emiliano Magno Vargas Carrasco

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 51–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Henrique Domingues
BRA
+150 s
+26 s
G4 / G1
16:40
Show details
Prediction details: Henrique Domingues

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +150 s
Time: 11:46
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 124.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 25.7 s
Gap behind: 34.0 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 11:46 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:54 (37.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 133.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 31 Garrett Gehringer
USA
+18 s
+45 s
G2 / G2
correct
16:49
Show details
Prediction details: Garrett Gehringer

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -31

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -27.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.4 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 5.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 32 Matthew Leatherbee
CHI
+210 s
+78 s
G5 / G2
17:20
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Leatherbee

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–10
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -32

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +210 s
Time: 12:46
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +78 s
Fehler: 132.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 26.0 s
Gap behind: 4.4 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -10.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 12:46 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:49 (31.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 197.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 33 Joaquín Valverde
ARG
+53 s
+73 s
G2 / G2
correct
17:32
Show details
Prediction details: Joaquín Valverde

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -33

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +73 s
Fehler: -19.7 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 2.13 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 40.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 34 Gael Gonzalez Vasquez
CHI
+184 s
+55 s
G4 / G2
17:32
Show details
Prediction details: Gael Gonzalez Vasquez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -34

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +184 s
Time: 12:20
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: 129.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 34.0 s
Gap behind: 26.0 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 12:20 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:54 (37.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 171.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 37 Sebastian Damian
CAN
+0 s
+31 s
G0 / G2
17:41
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastian Damian

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 52–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 40 Jérôme Côté
CAN
+34 s
+35 s
G2 / G2
correct
17:54
Show details
Prediction details: Jérôme Côté

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -40

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -1.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 21.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 44 Ángel David Ernesto Aguilar Bolaños
GUA
+42 s
+47 s
G2 / G2
correct
18:32
Show details
Prediction details: Ángel David Ernesto Aguilar Bolaños

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 44
Deviation: -44

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -5.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 29 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 45 Florian Muñoz
ARG
+124 s
+31 s
G4 / G2
18:59
Show details
Prediction details: Florian Muñoz

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 45
Deviation: -45

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +124 s
Time: 11:20
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 93.3 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.1 s
Gap behind: 25.7 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:59 (3:48 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:20 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:54 (37.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 111.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 46 Santiago Fernandez
PUR
+26 s
+33 s
G2 / G2
correct
19:08
Show details
Prediction details: Santiago Fernandez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 46
Deviation: -46

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -7.3 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:49 (43.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 13.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 52 Jonathan Calderón
ECU
+0 s
+69 s
G1 / G4
18:54
Show details
Prediction details: Jonathan Calderón

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 52
Deviation: -52

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +69 s
Fehler: -69.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 7.6 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:36 (42.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 53 Fabricio Samuel Mamani Gomez
BOL
+0 s
+49 s
G0 / G5
18:26
Show details
Prediction details: Fabricio Samuel Mamani Gomez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 53–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 53
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.