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U23 Men

04.07.2026 CHI
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Americas Triathlon Championships Antofagasta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 04.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 74/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 13 früheren Rennen und 341 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 43.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 06.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 89.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 13 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.7
Mean swim error40.1 s
Mean bike-speed error2.25 km/h
Correct bike groups13/27
No history0
Within the 80% range57.1 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 6 Braxton Legg
USA
+29 s
+43 s
G1 / G1
correct 		31:06
31:49
 1:31:14
Show details
Prediction details: Braxton Legg

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 18:12
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -14.4 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 127 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 7.0 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 45.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:06 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 127 Duelle, Korrektur 1.55 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:49 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:12 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:39 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 31:06 (3:07 / km)
Total: 1:31:14
2 / 3 Mathis Beaulieu
CAN
+23 s
+37 s
G1 / G1
correct 		31:18
30:16
 1:31:26
Show details
Prediction details: Mathis Beaulieu

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 18:06
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -13.7 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.3 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:18 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:16 (3:02 / km)
Error: +1:02 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:06 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:39 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 31:18 (3:08 / km)
Total: 1:31:26
3 / 5 Blake Bullard
USA
+4 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		31:46
31:28
 1:31:54
Show details
Prediction details: Blake Bullard

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 17:47
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 4.2 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 7.8 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:46 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur 0.96 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:28 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:47 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:39 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 31:46 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:31:54
4 / 12 Vinicius Avi Santana
BRA
+68 s
+112 s
G2 / G2
correct 		31:48
31:08
 1:33:08
Show details
Prediction details: Vinicius Avi Santana

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–13
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 18:51
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +112 s
Fehler: -44.2 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 140 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 9.8 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:48 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 138 Duelle, Korrektur 1.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:08 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:51 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:12 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 31:48 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:33:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 35.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 11 Ignacio Flores Arana
CHI
+60 s
+114 s
G2 / G2
correct 		32:05
31:06
 1:33:25
Show details
Prediction details: Ignacio Flores Arana

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 18:43
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +114 s
Fehler: -53.9 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:05 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.94 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:06 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:59 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:43 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:12 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 32:05 (3:13 / km)
Total: 1:33:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:15
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 27.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 4 Andree Buc
CHI
+45 s
+39 s
G3 / G1
 32:11
30:43
 1:33:34
Show details
Prediction details: Andree Buc

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–9
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 18:28
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 5.7 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 4.4 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:11 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur 0.95 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:43 (3:04 / km)
Error: +1:28 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:28 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:38 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 32:11 (3:13 / km)
Total: 1:33:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 12.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 1 Reese Vannerson
USA
+40 s
+42 s
G3 / G1
 32:22
30:00
 1:33:45
Show details
Prediction details: Reese Vannerson

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 1–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 18:23
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -2.1 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:22 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:00 (3:00 / km)
Error: +2:22 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:23 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:38 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 32:22 (3:14 / km)
Total: 1:33:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 7.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 16 Tiago Muñoz
ARG
+59 s
+107 s
G2 / G2
correct 		32:42
32:10
 1:34:02
Show details
Prediction details: Tiago Muñoz

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 4–13
Top-10 probability: 71 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +107 s
Fehler: -48.3 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 166 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:42 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 162 Duelle, Korrektur 1.17 %, Sicherheit 96 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:10 (3:13 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:42 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:12 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 32:42 (3:16 / km)
Total: 1:34:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 26.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 21 Nicolas Gomez
COL
+44 s
+116 s
G3 / G2
 33:41
33:49
 1:35:04
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolas Gomez

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 3–21
Top-10 probability: 54 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 18:27
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +116 s
Fehler: -71.7 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 1.29 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:41 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 1.18 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:49 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:27 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:38 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 33:41 (3:22 / km)
Total: 1:35:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:15
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 11.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 9 Cole Jamieson 
USA
+28 s
+35 s
G1 / G1
correct 		35:01
32:50
 1:35:09
Show details
Prediction details: Cole Jamieson 

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–17
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 18:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -7.0 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:01 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 1.95 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:50 (3:17 / km)
Error: +2:11 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:09
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:39 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 35:01 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:35:09
11 / 10 Osvaldo Darell Zuñiga Fierro
MEX
+38 s
+106 s
G3 / G2
 34:23
30:56
 1:35:46
Show details
Prediction details: Osvaldo Darell Zuñiga Fierro

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 8–12
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 18:21
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +106 s
Fehler: -68.1 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 127 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:23 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:56 (3:06 / km)
Error: +3:27 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:21 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:38 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 34:23 (3:26 / km)
Total: 1:35:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 5.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 13 Porter Middaugh
USA
+78 s
+112 s
G4 / G2
 33:22
31:06
 1:36:02
Show details
Prediction details: Porter Middaugh

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 5–19
Top-10 probability: 38 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +78 s
Time: 19:01
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +112 s
Fehler: -34.4 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.8 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:22 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:06 (3:07 / km)
Error: +2:16 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:01 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 33:22 (3:20 / km)
Total: 1:36:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 45.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 23 Marcos Alejandro Fernández González
CUB
+41 s
+92 s
G3 / G2
 35:17
35:19
 1:36:40
Show details
Prediction details: Marcos Alejandro Fernández González

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 7–20
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 18:24
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +92 s
Fehler: -51.4 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:17 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:19 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:24 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:38 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 35:17 (3:32 / km)
Total: 1:36:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 8.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 19 Hayden Woodrow
CAN
+26 s
+37 s
G1 / G1
correct 		36:50
35:14
 1:36:58
Show details
Prediction details: Hayden Woodrow

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 13–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 18:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -11.5 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:50 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:14 (3:31 / km)
Error: +1:36 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:39 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 36:50 (3:41 / km)
Total: 1:36:58
15 / 15 Alfredo Miguel Rodríguez Figueroa
MEX
+36 s
+116 s
G3 / G2
 35:39
32:02
 1:37:02
Show details
Prediction details: Alfredo Miguel Rodríguez Figueroa

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 10–15
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 18:19
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +116 s
Fehler: -80.4 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.0 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:39 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:02 (3:12 / km)
Error: +3:37 / +0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:19 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:38 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 35:39 (3:34 / km)
Total: 1:37:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 3.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 22 Alejandro Villota
COL
+61 s
+111 s
G2 / G2
correct 		36:18
34:01
 1:37:38
Show details
Prediction details: Alejandro Villota

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 12–22
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 18:44
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +111 s
Fehler: -49.6 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:18 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:01 (3:24 / km)
Error: +2:17 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:44 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:12 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 36:18 (3:38 / km)
Total: 1:37:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:15
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 28.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 7 Nicolas Probert Vargas
MEX
+12 s
+40 s
G1 / G1
correct 		38:00
31:58
 1:38:08
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolas Probert Vargas

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 15–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 17:55
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -28.0 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.8 s
Gap behind: 11.3 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:00 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur -1.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:58 (3:12 / km)
Error: +6:02 / +0:36 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:55 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:39 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 38:00 (3:48 / km)
Total: 1:38:08
18 / 17 David Vega Campoverde
ECU
+49 s
+110 s
G2 / G2
correct 		37:03
32:16
 1:38:23
Show details
Prediction details: David Vega Campoverde

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 14–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 18:32
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +110 s
Fehler: -60.9 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.4 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:03 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:16 (3:14 / km)
Error: +4:47 / +0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:32 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:12 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 37:03 (3:42 / km)
Total: 1:38:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:15
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 16.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 20 Thomas Castañeda Maldonado
ARG
+64 s
+115 s
G2 / G2
correct 		38:09
33:15
 1:39:29
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Castañeda Maldonado

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 18–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 18:47
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +115 s
Fehler: -51.0 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 152 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:09 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 150 Duelle, Korrektur -0.89 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:15 (3:20 / km)
Error: +4:54 / +0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:47 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:12 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 38:09 (3:49 / km)
Total: 1:39:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 31.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 8 Sullivan Middaugh
USA
+100 s
+111 s
G5 / G2
 34:10
30:19
 1:40:46
Show details
Prediction details: Sullivan Middaugh

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 12–21
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +100 s
Time: 19:23
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +111 s
Fehler: -10.6 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 144 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:10 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 144 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:19 (3:02 / km)
Error: +3:51 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:23 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:56 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 34:10 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:40:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:15
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 67.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 24 Jacobo Sánchez Cano
COL
+38 s
+110 s
G3 / G2
 39:29
35:12
 1:40:52
Show details
Prediction details: Jacobo Sánchez Cano

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 13–25
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 18:21
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +110 s
Fehler: -72.5 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:29 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:12 (3:31 / km)
Error: +4:17 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:52
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:21 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:38 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 39:29 (3:57 / km)
Total: 1:40:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 26 João Vitor Mazorca
BRA
+82 s
+113 s
G4 / G2
 38:34
37:38
 1:41:14
Show details
Prediction details: João Vitor Mazorca

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 20–26
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 19:05
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +113 s
Fehler: -31.4 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -1.09 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 5.7 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:34 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:38 (3:46 / km)
Error: +0:56 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:05 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 38:34 (3:51 / km)
Total: 1:41:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 49.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 28 Jorge Raul Cabinal Gramajo
GUA
+59 s
+174 s
G2 / G3
 40:00
40:07
 1:41:20
Show details
Prediction details: Jorge Raul Cabinal Gramajo

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 21–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +174 s
Fehler: -114.6 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 90 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:00 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 73 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:07 (4:01 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:42 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:12 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 40:00 (4:00 / km)
Total: 1:41:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:15
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 26.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 27 Bautista Arbizu
ARG
+87 s
+185 s
G5 / G3
 35:48
38:42
 1:42:24
Show details
Prediction details: Bautista Arbizu

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 14–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +87 s
Time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +185 s
Fehler: -97.7 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur -1.32 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.7 s
Gap behind: 13.1 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:48 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.92 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:42 (3:52 / km)
Error: −2:54 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:10 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:56 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 35:48 (3:35 / km)
Total: 1:42:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:15
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 54.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 25 Nicholas Pilgrim
BER
+57 s
+61 s
G2 / G2
correct 		41:12
36:27
 1:42:32
Show details
Prediction details: Nicholas Pilgrim

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 23–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 18:40
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -4.3 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:12 (4:07 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -1.07 %, Sicherheit 93 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:27 (3:39 / km)
Error: +4:45 / +0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:40 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:12 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 41:12 (4:07 / km)
Total: 1:42:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 24.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 2 Keller Norland
USA
+53 s
+42 s
G2 / G1
 41:19
30:08
 1:42:39
Show details
Prediction details: Keller Norland

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 22–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 18:36
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 11.0 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 144 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:19 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 144 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:08 (3:01 / km)
Error: +11:11 / +1:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:36 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:12 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 41:19 (4:08 / km)
Total: 1:42:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
27 / 18 Daniel Epp
CAN
+79 s
+118 s
G4 / G2
 47:52
32:38
 1:50:32
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Epp

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 27–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +79 s
Time: 19:02
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +118 s
Fehler: -39.3 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 47:52 (4:47 / km)
Historical basis: 4:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:38 (3:16 / km)
Error: +15:14 / +1:31 / km
Overall prediction: 1:50:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:02 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 47:52 (4:47 / km)
Total: 1:50:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 46.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 14 Arturo Salinas
PER
+80 s
 Bike DNF 35:49
1:50:10
Show details
Prediction details: Arturo Salinas

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 28–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +80 s
Time: 19:03
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 35:49 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:50:10 (11:01 / km)
Error: −74:21 / −7:26 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:03 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 35:49 (3:35 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.