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U23 Women

04.07.2026 CHI
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Americas Triathlon Championships Antofagasta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 04.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 77/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 13 früheren Rennen und 165 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 48.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 04.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 94.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 13 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.3
Mean swim error27.3 s
Mean bike-speed error1.35 km/h
Correct bike groups2/18
No history0
Within the 80% range22.2 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Sidney Clement
CAN
+4 s
+22 s
G1 / G2
 38:07
35:29
 1:45:40
Show details
Prediction details: Sidney Clement

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 20:04
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -18.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 97 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:07 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 1.80 %, Sicherheit 90 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:29 (3:33 / km)
Error: +2:38 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:04 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:58 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 38:07 (3:49 / km)
Total: 1:45:40
2 / 4 Alexandra Campbell
CAN
+8 s
+22 s
G1 / G2
 38:09
37:50
 1:45:42
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandra Campbell

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 20:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -14.3 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 13.3 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:09 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:50 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:58 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 38:09 (3:49 / km)
Total: 1:45:42
3 / 13 Ellison Wolfe
USA
+51 s
+107 s
G2 / G4
 37:14
37:43
 1:45:57
Show details
Prediction details: Ellison Wolfe

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 20:51
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +107 s
Fehler: -55.9 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.2 s
Gap behind: 18.6 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:14 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:43 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:51 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:24 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 37:14 (3:43 / km)
Total: 1:45:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:39
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 12.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 12 Maria De Los Angeles Bonilla Garcia
ECU
+40 s
+119 s
G2 / G4
 37:53
37:52
 1:46:36
Show details
Prediction details: Maria De Los Angeles Bonilla Garcia

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–9
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 20:40
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +119 s
Fehler: -78.6 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.8 s
Gap behind: 5.3 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:53 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 2.07 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:52 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:46:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:40 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:24 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 37:53 (3:47 / km)
Total: 1:46:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:39
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 1.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 3 Marcela Alvarez Solis
MEX
+30 s
+22 s
G1 / G2
 39:38
37:20
 1:47:11
Show details
Prediction details: Marcela Alvarez Solis

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 20:30
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 8.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 70 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:38 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:20 (3:44 / km)
Error: +2:18 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:47:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:30 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:58 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 39:38 (3:58 / km)
Total: 1:47:11
6 / 17 María Emilia Vargas
ARG
+46 s
+103 s
G2 / G4
 38:56
40:04
 1:47:39
Show details
Prediction details: María Emilia Vargas

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–13
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 20:46
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +103 s
Fehler: -57.1 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 5.2 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:56 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:04 (4:00 / km)
Error: −1:08 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:47:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:46 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:24 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 38:56 (3:54 / km)
Total: 1:47:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:39
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 16 Zoe Adam
PUR
+29 s
+20 s
G1 / G2
 40:11
43:42
 1:47:44
Show details
Prediction details: Zoe Adam

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 20:29
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 9.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:11 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:36 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 1.05 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:42 (4:22 / km)
Error: −3:31 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 1:47:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:29 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:58 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 40:11 (4:01 / km)
Total: 1:47:44
8 / 15 Molly Lakustiak
CAN
+79 s
+71 s
G2 / G4
 39:52
38:28
 1:48:35
Show details
Prediction details: Molly Lakustiak

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–14
Top-10 probability: 58 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +79 s
Time: 21:19
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: 8.4 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 21.1 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:52 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 71 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:28 (3:51 / km)
Error: +1:24 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:48:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:19 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:24 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 39:52 (3:59 / km)
Total: 1:48:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:39
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 40.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 7 Gianella Debra Coaguila Pita
PER
+21 s
+26 s
G1 / G2
 41:30
39:08
 1:49:03
Show details
Prediction details: Gianella Debra Coaguila Pita

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–12
Top-10 probability: 71 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 20:21
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -5.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.95 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.3 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:30 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.12 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:08 (3:55 / km)
Error: +2:22 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:49:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:21 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:58 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 41:30 (4:09 / km)
Total: 1:49:03
10 / 11 Sofia De Rosas
ARG
+36 s
+45 s
G1 / G3
 41:45
40:13
 1:49:18
Show details
Prediction details: Sofia De Rosas

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 71 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 20:36
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -9.4 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.1 s
Gap behind: 4.8 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:45 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.94 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:13 (4:01 / km)
Error: +1:32 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:49:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:36 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:58 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 41:45 (4:10 / km)
Total: 1:49:18
11 / 18 Amanda Moro
BRA
+77 s
+122 s
G2 / G5
 40:57
48:42
 1:49:40
Show details
Prediction details: Amanda Moro

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 9–15
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 21:17
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +122 s
Fehler: -45.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.3 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:57 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 48:42 (4:52 / km)
Error: −7:45 / −0:47 / km
Overall prediction: 1:49:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:17 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:24 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 40:57 (4:06 / km)
Total: 1:49:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:39
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 38.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 1 Naomi Ruff
USA
+24 s
+26 s
G1 / G2
 42:23
35:19
 1:49:56
Show details
Prediction details: Naomi Ruff

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–12
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 20:24
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -2.1 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 84 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:23 (4:14 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -1.26 %, Sicherheit 73 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:19 (3:32 / km)
Error: +7:04 / +0:42 / km
Overall prediction: 1:49:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:24 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:58 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 42:23 (4:14 / km)
Total: 1:49:56
13 / 14 Dominga Elena Jacome Espinoza
CHI
+31 s
+68 s
G1 / G3
 42:28
40:19
 1:50:01
Show details
Prediction details: Dominga Elena Jacome Espinoza

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 8–12
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 20:31
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: -37.5 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 5.1 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:28 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.89 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:19 (4:02 / km)
Error: +2:09 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:50:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:31 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:58 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 42:28 (4:15 / km)
Total: 1:50:01
14 / 5 Rafaela Capó
CHI
+25 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		44:02
40:16
 1:51:35
Show details
Prediction details: Rafaela Capó

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 12–15
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 20:25
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 25.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:02 (4:24 / km)
Historical basis: 4:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:16 (4:02 / km)
Error: +3:46 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 1:51:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:25 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:58 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 44:02 (4:24 / km)
Total: 1:51:35
15 / 9 Julia Visgueiro
BRA
+46 s
+83 s
G2 / G4
 44:48
37:11
 1:53:31
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Visgueiro

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 13–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 20:46
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +83 s
Fehler: -37.3 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 95 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:48 (4:29 / km)
Historical basis: 4:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -1.39 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:11 (3:43 / km)
Error: +7:37 / +0:46 / km
Overall prediction: 1:53:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:46 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:24 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 44:48 (4:29 / km)
Total: 1:53:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:39
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 6.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 6 Camila Victoria Alcala Rosales
HON
+70 s
+64 s
G2 / G3
 45:17
37:14
 1:54:00
Show details
Prediction details: Camila Victoria Alcala Rosales

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 15–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 21:10
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: 5.7 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 78 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 18.6 s
Gap behind: 7.3 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 45:17 (4:32 / km)
Historical basis: 4:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur -1.27 %, Sicherheit 71 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:14 (3:43 / km)
Error: +8:03 / +0:48 / km
Overall prediction: 1:54:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:10 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:24 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 45:17 (4:32 / km)
Total: 1:54:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:39
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 30.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 10 Gabriela Machado Penteado
BRA
+110 s
+69 s
G4 / G3
 41:44
40:08
 1:58:42
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriela Machado Penteado

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 15–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +110 s
Time: 21:50
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +69 s
Fehler: 41.2 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -1.29 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:44 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 1.35 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:08 (4:01 / km)
Error: +1:36 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:58:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:50 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:15:08 (34.5 km/h)
Run: 41:44 (4:10 / km)
Total: 1:58:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:39
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 71.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 8 Sofia Gelati
BRA
+101 s
+67 s
G3 / G3
correct 		44:11
38:19
 1:59:35
Show details
Prediction details: Sofia Gelati

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 16–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +101 s
Time: 21:41
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +67 s
Fehler: 33.5 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 21.1 s
Gap behind: 9.7 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:11 (4:25 / km)
Historical basis: 4:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:19 (3:50 / km)
Error: +5:52 / +0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 1:59:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:41 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:13:44 (35.2 km/h)
Run: 44:11 (4:25 / km)
Total: 1:59:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:39
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 61.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.