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Elite Women

20.06.2026 Calle Principal de Caicara VEN
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Americas Triathlon Cup and Central American and Caribbean Championships Anzoátegui

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 20.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 90/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 48 früheren Rennen und 780 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 45.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 20.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 80.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 88.0 % · 48 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.7
Mean swim error23.7 s
Mean bike-speed error1.51 km/h
Correct bike groups8/25
No history0
Within the 80% range48.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Rosa Elena Martinez Melchior
VEN
+19 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:06
15:55
 49:22
Show details
Prediction details: Rosa Elena Martinez Melchior

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 19.0 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 85 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 4.4 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:06 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Error: +1:11 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 49:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:47 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 17:06 (3:25 / km)
Total: 49:22
2 / 9 Dominga Elena Jacome Espinoza
CHI
+18 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:34
18:06
 49:50
Show details
Prediction details: Dominga Elena Jacome Espinoza

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 11.7 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.2 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:06 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 49:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:28 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:47 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Total: 49:50
3 / 2 Genesis Carolina Ruiz Volcan
VEN
+23 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:51
16:29
 50:07
Show details
Prediction details: Genesis Carolina Ruiz Volcan

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 7–12
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 22.4 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.4 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Error: +1:22 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 50:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:47 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Total: 50:07
4 / 14 Paula Vega
ECU
+25 s
+32 s
G1 / G3
 18:09
17:59
 50:25
Show details
Prediction details: Paula Vega

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 7–16
Top-10 probability: 38 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -7.4 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 50:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:35 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:47 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Total: 50:25
5 / 6 Anahi Alvarez Corral
MEX
+60 s
+30 s
G2 / G3
 17:01
15:39
 50:58
Show details
Prediction details: Anahi Alvarez Corral

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 7–15
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 11:10
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 30.4 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 10.7 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 91 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Error: +1:22 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 50:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:10 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:57 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Total: 50:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 26 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 7 Leslie Amat Alvarez
CUB
+5 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:54
17:48
 51:10
Show details
Prediction details: Leslie Amat Alvarez

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 8–15
Top-10 probability: 38 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Error: +1:06 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 51:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:47 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Total: 51:10
7 / 10 Catalina Torres Espinoza
CRC
+29 s
+10 s
G1 / G3
 19:03
17:12
 51:19
Show details
Prediction details: Catalina Torres Espinoza

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 9–18
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 10:39
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 18.5 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 8.1 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Error: +1:51 / +0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 51:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:39 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:47 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Total: 51:19
8 / 3 Jimena Renata De La Peña Schott
USA
+18 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:08
16:28
 51:24
Show details
Prediction details: Jimena Renata De La Peña Schott

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–18
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 9.3 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Error: +2:40 / +0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 51:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:28 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:47 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Total: 51:24
9 / 4 Zoe Adam
PUR
+10 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:11
16:36
 51:27
Show details
Prediction details: Zoe Adam

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–17
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 10:20
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 9.5 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 8.2 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:11 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:30 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:36 (3:19 / km)
Error: +2:35 / +0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 51:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:20 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:47 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 19:11 (3:50 / km)
Total: 51:27
10 / 12 Raquel Solis
CRC
+26 s
+12 s
G1 / G3
 19:13
17:13
 51:29
Show details
Prediction details: Raquel Solis

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–20
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 14.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:13 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Error: +2:00 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 51:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:47 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 19:13 (3:51 / km)
Total: 51:29
11 / 8 Camila Victoria Alcala Rosales
HON
+42 s
+10 s
G3 / G2
 17:54
16:41
 51:52
Show details
Prediction details: Camila Victoria Alcala Rosales

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 7–16
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 10:52
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 31.5 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Error: +1:13 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 51:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:52 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:08 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Total: 51:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:45
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 7.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 11 Maria De Los Angeles Bonilla Garcia
ECU
+41 s
+11 s
G3 / G3
correct 		18:00
17:15
 51:58
Show details
Prediction details: Maria De Los Angeles Bonilla Garcia

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 7–17
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:51
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 30.0 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 1.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 79 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 51:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:51 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:08 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Total: 51:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 6.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 13 Yaniuska Mared Jimenez Arriechi
VEN
+57 s
+8 s
G2 / G3
 18:10
17:18
 52:07
Show details
Prediction details: Yaniuska Mared Jimenez Arriechi

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 10–19
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 11:07
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 49.3 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.7 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 92 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:52 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 52:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:07 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:57 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Total: 52:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 22.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 5 Julia Maria Alcala Rosales
HON
+37 s
+10 s
G3 / G1
 18:28
17:03
 52:26
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Maria Alcala Rosales

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 7–19
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 10:47
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 26.6 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 8.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:28 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Error: +1:25 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 52:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:47 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:08 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 18:28 (3:42 / km)
Total: 52:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:45
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 2.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 15 Miriam López Arenazas
MEX
+45 s
+24 s
G3 / G4
 19:28
19:02
 53:26
Show details
Prediction details: Miriam López Arenazas

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 13–22
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:55
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 21.3 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 1.42 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:02 (3:48 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 53:26
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:55 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:08 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Total: 53:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 10.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 18 Rebecca Nolan
RSA
+50 s
+35 s
G3 / G5
 20:28
18:09
 54:26
Show details
Prediction details: Rebecca Nolan

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 19–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 14.6 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 74 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 7.7 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:28 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.85 %, Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Error: +2:19 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 54:26
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:00 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:08 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 20:28 (4:06 / km)
Total: 54:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:45
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 15.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 17 Lizeth Lopez Ortega
MEX
+71 s
+58 s
G4 / G5
 19:52
18:04
 54:31
Show details
Prediction details: Lizeth Lopez Ortega

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 16–22
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +71 s
Time: 11:21
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 13.1 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.7 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:52 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Error: +1:48 / +0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 54:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:21 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:18 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 19:52 (3:58 / km)
Total: 54:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 36.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 19 Leah Amezcua Herrera
MEX
+74 s
+33 s
G4 / G5
 20:16
19:11
 54:55
Show details
Prediction details: Leah Amezcua Herrera

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 20–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 11:24
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 41.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.99 %, Sicherheit 76 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 6.9 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:16 (4:03 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 66 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:11 (3:50 / km)
Error: +1:05 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 54:55
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:24 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:18 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 20:16 (4:03 / km)
Total: 54:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
19 / 24 Damelys Adiley Castillo Rodriguez
VEN
+58 s
+59 s
G2 / G6
 24:32
21:56
 58:29
Show details
Prediction details: Damelys Adiley Castillo Rodriguez

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 23–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 11:08
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:32 (4:54 / km)
Historical basis: 4:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -1.06 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:56 (4:23 / km)
Error: +2:36 / +0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 58:29
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:08 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:57 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 24:32 (4:54 / km)
Total: 58:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 23.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 23 Ana Victoria Portillo Prono
PAR
+109 s
+37 s
G5 / G6
 22:39
19:17
 1:00:32
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Victoria Portillo Prono

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 23–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +109 s
Time: 11:59
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 72.3 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -2.15 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 28.3 s
Gap behind: 42.1 s
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:39 (4:32 / km)
Historical basis: 4:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Error: +3:22 / +0:40 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:32
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:59 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:04 (33.3 km/h)
Run: 22:39 (4:32 / km)
Total: 1:00:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 74.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 25 Liska Arteaga
PAN
+151 s
+114 s
G6 / G7
 22:32
22:11
 1:01:51
Show details
Prediction details: Liska Arteaga

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 24–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +151 s
Time: 12:41
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +114 s
Fehler: 37.4 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.21 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 42.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:32 (4:30 / km)
Historical basis: 4:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.88 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:11 (4:26 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:51
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:41 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:48 (32.6 km/h)
Run: 22:32 (4:30 / km)
Total: 1:01:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 117 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 16 Creixell Ailyn Osuna Uzcategui
VEN
+81 s
+16 s
G4 / G5
17:42
Show details
Prediction details: Creixell Ailyn Osuna Uzcategui

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 11:31
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 65.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.9 s
Gap behind: 28.3 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:31 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:18 (35.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 46.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 20 Melany Pesantez Cumbicus
ECU
+37 s
+37 s
G3 / G3
correct
21:31
Show details
Prediction details: Melany Pesantez Cumbicus

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 10:47
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:31 (4:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:47 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:08 (36.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 2.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 21 María Lourdes Peralta Perozo
VEN
+46 s
+57 s
G3 / G6
18:55
Show details
Prediction details: María Lourdes Peralta Perozo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:56
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -11.4 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:55 (3:47 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:56 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:08 (36.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:45
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 11.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 22 Zara Inés López Gurrola
MEX
+28 s
+61 s
G1 / G6
19:12
Show details
Prediction details: Zara Inés López Gurrola

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -33.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:12 (3:50 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:38 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:47 (37.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable