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Elite Men

28.03.2026 PARADOR SANTA FE ARG
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Americas Triathlon Cup and South American Games Test Event Santa Fe

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 28.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 90/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 73 früheren Rennen und 1464 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 43.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 79.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 88.2 % · 73 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.9
Mean swim error44.3 s
Mean bike-speed error2.32 km/h
Correct bike groups7/33
No history1
Within the 80% range50.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Osvaldo Darell Zuñiga Fierro
MEX
+49 s
+22 s
G1 / G2
 15:14
14:51
 44:00
Show details
Prediction details: Osvaldo Darell Zuñiga Fierro

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 27.4 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.93 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 44:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Total: 44:00
2 / 10 Sebastian Zurob
CHI
+52 s
+12 s
G1 / G2
 15:21
16:36
 44:07
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastian Zurob

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 40.4 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:36 (3:19 / km)
Error: −1:15 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 44:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Total: 44:07
3 / 8 Antonio Bravo Neto
BRA
+55 s
+4 s
G1 / G2
 15:27
15:54
 44:13
Show details
Prediction details: Antonio Bravo Neto

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–13
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 51.1 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 44:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Total: 44:13
4 / 4 Daniel Ubilla Sabada
CHI
+55 s
+5 s
G1 / G2
 15:29
15:12
 44:15
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Ubilla Sabada

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 50.3 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:12 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 44:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Total: 44:15
5 / 3 Mateo Mendoza Burgos
CHI
+60 s
+3 s
G1 / G2
 15:52
15:06
 44:38
Show details
Prediction details: Mateo Mendoza Burgos

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 7–19
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 57.0 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 127 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 44:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Total: 44:38
6 / 7 Ivan Anzaldo
ARG
+50 s
+13 s
G1 / G2
 16:03
15:46
 44:49
Show details
Prediction details: Ivan Anzaldo

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–22
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 36.9 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 1.36 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:03 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 44:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:53 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 16:03 (3:13 / km)
Total: 44:49
7 / 17 Thomas Castañeda Maldonado
ARG
+64 s
+25 s
G1 / G3
 16:15
16:40
 45:01
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Castañeda Maldonado

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 9–22
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 38.6 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 128 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 127 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 45:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Total: 45:01
8 / 1 Vinicius Avi Santana
BRA
+65 s
+19 s
G1 / G2
 16:16
14:42
 45:02
Show details
Prediction details: Vinicius Avi Santana

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 10–20
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 45.8 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:42 (2:56 / km)
Error: +1:34 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 45:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Total: 45:02
9 / 9 João Teixeira Alvares
BRA
+54 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:17
16:43
 45:03
Show details
Prediction details: João Teixeira Alvares

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–23
Top-10 probability: 41 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 47.2 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:17 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:43 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 45:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 16:17 (3:15 / km)
Total: 45:03
10 / 15 Luigi Antonio Loddi Vanzella
BRA
+43 s
+1 s
G1 / G2
 16:30
17:16
 45:16
Show details
Prediction details: Luigi Antonio Loddi Vanzella

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–20
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 42.0 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.0 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:30 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:46 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 45:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:46 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 16:30 (3:18 / km)
Total: 45:16
11 / 22 Julio Monteiro Martins
BRA
+50 s
+12 s
G1 / G4
 16:30
17:24
 45:16
Show details
Prediction details: Julio Monteiro Martins

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 4–24
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 38.4 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:30 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:54 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 45:16
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:53 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 16:30 (3:18 / km)
Total: 45:16
12 / 19 Santiago Boxler
ARG
+68 s
+94 s
G1 / G5
 16:30
16:27
 45:16
Show details
Prediction details: Santiago Boxler

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 14–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +94 s
Fehler: -26.3 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.95 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 8.1 s
Result: Group 5 (8 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:30 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.61 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:27 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 45:16
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 16:30 (3:18 / km)
Total: 45:16
13 / 5 Ignacio Flores Arana
CHI
+76 s
+16 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:29
15:31
 45:27
Show details
Prediction details: Ignacio Flores Arana

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 7–23
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 60.1 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 45:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:36 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Total: 45:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 6.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 26 Bruno Festorazzi
URU
+31 s
+87 s
G1 / G5
 16:41
17:50
 45:27
Show details
Prediction details: Bruno Festorazzi

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–17
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 8:34
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +87 s
Fehler: -56.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 12.0 s
Result: Group 5 (8 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 2.21 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Error: −1:09 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 45:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:34 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Total: 45:27
15 / 13 Yago Alves
BRA
+48 s
+8 s
G1 / G2
 16:43
16:56
 45:29
Show details
Prediction details: Yago Alves

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 12–18
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 8:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 39.6 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 45:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km)
Total: 45:29
16 / 16 Tiago Muñoz
ARG
+80 s
+23 s
G2 / G3
 15:42
16:25
 45:40
Show details
Prediction details: Tiago Muñoz

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 8–26
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +80 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 56.7 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:42 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:25 (3:17 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 45:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:36 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 15:42 (3:08 / km)
Total: 45:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 10.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 12 Matheus Oliveira Martinhaki
BRA
+66 s
+5 s
G1 / G2
 17:15
16:55
 46:01
Show details
Prediction details: Matheus Oliveira Martinhaki

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 11–28
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 60.5 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 159 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 158 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:55 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 46:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Total: 46:01
18 / 14 Gerónimo Dherete
ARG
+50 s
+5 s
G1 / G2
 17:17
17:11
 46:03
Show details
Prediction details: Gerónimo Dherete

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 15–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 45.1 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:17 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:53 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 17:17 (3:27 / km)
Total: 46:03
19 / 20 Fabrizio Valentin Pavoni
ARG
+78 s
+21 s
G2 / G3
 16:15
17:49
 46:13
Show details
Prediction details: Fabrizio Valentin Pavoni

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 8–27
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +78 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 57.2 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:49 (3:34 / km)
Error: −1:34 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 46:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:36 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Total: 46:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 8.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 31 Santiago Sierra
URU
+57 s
+24 s
G1 / G4
 18:19
18:40
 47:05
Show details
Prediction details: Santiago Sierra

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 22–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 33.4 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:40 (3:44 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 47:05
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Total: 47:05
21 / 29 Arturo Salinas
PER
+76 s
+24 s
G2 / G4
 17:10
18:33
 47:08
Show details
Prediction details: Arturo Salinas

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 21–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 51.8 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Error: −1:23 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 47:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:36 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Total: 47:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 6.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 23 Joao Victor Pereira
BRA
+76 s
+20 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:31
19:18
 47:29
Show details
Prediction details: Joao Victor Pereira

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 19–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 55.9 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:18 (3:52 / km)
Error: −1:47 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 47:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:36 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Total: 47:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 6.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 18 Gabriel Lecheta
BRA
+104 s
+92 s
G4 / G5
 14:55
16:04
 47:35
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriel Lecheta

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 8–28
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +104 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +92 s
Fehler: 12.0 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 128 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.9 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 5 (8 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:55 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur 1.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Error: −1:09 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 47:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:55 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 14:55 (2:59 / km)
Total: 47:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 34.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 11 Bautista Arbizu
ARG
+81 s
+18 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:50
16:44
 47:48
Show details
Prediction details: Bautista Arbizu

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 22–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 63.3 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Error: +1:06 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 47:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:36 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Total: 47:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 11.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 24 Mateo Silva González
CHI
+105 s
+88 s
G4 / G5
 16:37
17:20
 49:17
Show details
Prediction details: Mateo Silva González

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 27–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +105 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: 16.9 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 4.8 s
Result: Group 5 (8 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 1.29 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 49:17
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:55 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Total: 49:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 35.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 32 Nicholas Andres Miller Herrera
CHI
+98 s
+25 s
G4 / G4
correct 		16:44
18:53
 49:24
Show details
Prediction details: Nicholas Andres Miller Herrera

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 15–31
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +98 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 73.1 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.5 s
Gap behind: 5.9 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Error: −2:09 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 49:24
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:55 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Total: 49:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 28.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 27 Ignacio Ernesto Braga Giménez
ARG
+110 s
+27 s
G5 / G4
 16:55
18:25
 50:16
Show details
Prediction details: Ignacio Ernesto Braga Giménez

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 24–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +110 s
Time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 82.7 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -2.06 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.8 s
Gap behind: 9.8 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:55 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 93 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Error: −1:30 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 50:16
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:22 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 16:55 (3:23 / km)
Total: 50:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 40.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 30 Athur Pereira Morer
BRA
+85 s
+16 s
G3 / G4
 18:36
18:32
 50:24
Show details
Prediction details: Athur Pereira Morer

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 27–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +85 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 69.4 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 6.2 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:36 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -2.24 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 50:24
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:23 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 18:36 (3:43 / km)
Total: 50:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 15.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 34 Luca Valentino Castella
ARG
+92 s
+88 s
G4 / G5
 19:10
20:21
 51:50
Show details
Prediction details: Luca Valentino Castella

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 30–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +92 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: 3.6 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.2 s
Gap behind: 6.5 s
Result: Group 5 (8 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.18 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:21 (4:04 / km)
Error: −1:11 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 51:50
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:55 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Total: 51:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 22.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 33 Rey Vélez
PUR
+125 s
+88 s
G6 / G5
 18:25
19:53
 52:15
Show details
Prediction details: Rey Vélez

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 30–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +125 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: 37.2 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (8 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:53 (3:59 / km)
Error: −1:28 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 52:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:45 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Total: 52:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 55.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Tadeo Baruffato
ARG
+51 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct
16:11
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Prediction details: Tadeo Baruffato

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 40.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 21 Javier Figueroa
PUR
+51 s
+30 s
G1 / G4
17:17
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Prediction details: Javier Figueroa

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 21.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:17 (3:27 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:38 (43.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 25 Ezequiel Alan Ibáñez
ARG
+120 s
+95 s
G5 / G5
correct
17:35
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Prediction details: Ezequiel Alan Ibáñez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +120 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +95 s
Fehler: 24.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.8 s
Gap behind: 5.7 s
Result: Group 5 (8 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:22 (38.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 50 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 28 Federico Ruiz Patat
ARG
+0 s
+92 s
G0 / G5
17:59
Show details
Prediction details: Federico Ruiz Patat

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 34–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 8:03
Pace: 1:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +92 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (8 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 8:03 (1:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.