Elite Women
Race information and calculation basis
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 28.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Show model parameters and data quality
Kalibriert mit 69 früheren Rennen und 564 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 31.6 %.
Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.
Datenabdeckung 85.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 92.9 % · 69 Kalibrierungsrennen
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
| Place Prediction / result |
Athlete | Swimming Prediction / result |
Bike group Prediction / result |
Run Prediction / result |
Overall prediction | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 / 3 |
MEX
|
+28 s
+11 s
|
G1 / G2
|
17:53
17:25
|
50:42 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 1
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 17.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen,
42 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.31 %,
Sicherheit 80 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Gap ahead:
2.0 s
Gap behind:
14.9 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.78 km/h
Running and totalRun: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen,
39 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.02 %,
Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 50:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:16
(1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:21
(37.1 km/h)
Run:
17:53
(3:35 / km)
Total:
50:42
|
| 2 / 2 |
CHI
|
+26 s
+18 s
|
G1 / G2
|
17:55
16:58
|
50:44 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 2
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 8.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen,
59 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.82 %,
Sicherheit 76 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Gap ahead:
4.4 s
Gap behind:
2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.64 km/h
Running and totalRun: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen,
56 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.05 %,
Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Error: +0:57 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 50:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:14
(1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:21
(37.1 km/h)
Run:
17:55
(3:35 / km)
Total:
50:44
|
| 3 / 1 |
BRA
|
+43 s
+10 s
|
G2 / G1
|
17:58
16:46
|
51:25 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 3
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 32.9 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen,
59 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.10 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Gap ahead:
14.9 s
Gap behind:
0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.47 km/h
Running and totalRun: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen,
55 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.06 %,
Sicherheit 73 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Error: +1:12 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 51:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:31
(1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:35
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
17:58
(3:36 / km)
Total:
51:25
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 4 / 6 |
COL
|
+43 s
+27 s
|
G2 / G1
|
18:02
18:28
|
51:29 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 4
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 16.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen,
33 Duelle,
Korrektur 1.30 %,
Sicherheit 90 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.1 s
Gap behind:
3.5 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.01 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen,
33 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.30 %,
Sicherheit 73 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:28 (3:42 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 51:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:31
(1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:35
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
18:02
(3:36 / km)
Total:
51:29
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 9.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 5 / 7 |
ARG
|
+17 s
+15 s
|
G1 / G2
|
18:50
18:50
|
51:39 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 5
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 1.7 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen,
34 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.25 %,
Sicherheit 53 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
4.9 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.64 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:50 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:33 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen,
30 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.17 %,
Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:50 (3:46 / km)
Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 51:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:05
(1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:21
(37.1 km/h)
Run:
18:50
(3:46 / km)
Total:
51:39
|
| 6 / 5 |
VEN
|
+51 s
+16 s
|
G2 / G1
|
18:22
18:04
|
51:49 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 6
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:39
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 35.1 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen,
40 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.35 %,
Sicherheit 81 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Gap ahead:
4.6 s
Gap behind:
6.7 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.38 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen,
40 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.07 %,
Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 51:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:39
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:35
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
18:22
(3:40 / km)
Total:
51:49
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 17.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 7 / 8 |
ARG
|
+22 s
+16 s
|
G1 / G2
|
20:28
18:48
|
53:17 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 7
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 5.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen,
5 Duelle,
Korrektur 1.66 %,
Sicherheit 17 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Gap ahead:
4.9 s
Gap behind:
4.4 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.73 km/h
Running and totalRun: 20:28 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen,
5 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.12 %,
Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Error: +1:40 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 53:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:10
(1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:21
(37.1 km/h)
Run:
20:28
(4:06 / km)
Total:
53:17
|
| 8 / 4 |
ARG
|
+62 s
+25 s
|
G3 / G2
|
18:30
17:46
|
53:45 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 8
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 4
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 10:50
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 37.4 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen,
24 Duelle,
Korrektur -1.19 %,
Sicherheit 62 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
4.6 s
Gap behind:
20.2 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.32 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:30 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen,
24 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.07 %,
Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:44 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 53:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:50
(1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
33:53
(35.3 km/h)
Run:
18:30
(3:42 / km)
Total:
53:45
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 28.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 9 / 10 |
BRA
|
+83 s
+30 s
|
G3 / G3
correct
|
19:22
18:47
|
54:37 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 9
80% range: 9–11
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +83 s
Time: 11:11
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 52.6 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen,
27 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.24 %,
Sicherheit 77 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
20.2 s
Gap behind:
11.3 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.33 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:22 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen,
27 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.13 %,
Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:47 (3:45 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 54:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
11:11
(1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
33:53
(35.3 km/h)
Run:
19:22
(3:52 / km)
Total:
54:37
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 48.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 10 / 9 |
BRA
|
+47 s
+22 s
|
G2 / G2
correct
|
21:36
19:51
|
55:03 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 10
80% range: 8–12
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 24.5 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen,
22 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.57 %,
Sicherheit 74 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Gap ahead:
3.5 s
Gap behind:
4.6 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.31 km/h
Running and totalRun: 21:36 (4:19 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen,
22 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.69 %,
Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:51 (3:58 / km)
Error: +1:45 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 55:03
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:35
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:35
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
21:36
(4:19 / km)
Total:
55:03
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 12.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 11 / 11 |
BRA
|
+58 s
+30 s
|
G3 / G3
correct
|
19:54
19:21
|
55:09 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 11
80% range: 7–11
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 10:46
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 27.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen,
25 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.78 %,
Sicherheit 79 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
6.7 s
Gap behind:
4.6 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.32 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:54 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen,
25 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.02 %,
Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:21 (3:52 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 55:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:46
(1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
33:53
(35.3 km/h)
Run:
19:54
(3:59 / km)
Total:
55:09
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 23.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 12 / 13 |
CHI
|
+102 s
+103 s
|
G4 / G4
correct
|
20:21
20:03
|
59:22 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 12
80% range: 12–13
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +102 s
Time: 11:30
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +103 s
Fehler: -1.1 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen,
19 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.10 %,
Sicherheit 47 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
8.0 s
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.06 km/h
Running and totalRun: 20:21 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen,
19 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.03 %,
Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:03 (4:01 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 59:22
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
11:30
(1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
37:19
(32.1 km/h)
Run:
20:21
(4:04 / km)
Total:
59:22
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 68 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 13 / 14 |
ARG
|
+94 s
+99 s
|
G4 / G4
correct
|
20:28
21:01
|
59:29 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 13
80% range: 11–13
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +94 s
Time: 11:22
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +99 s
Fehler: -5.1 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen,
1 Duelle,
Korrektur -2.47 %,
Sicherheit 2 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
11.3 s
Gap behind:
8.0 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.06 km/h
Running and totalRun: 20:28 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen,
1 Duelle,
Korrektur -1.60 %,
Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:01 (4:12 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 59:29
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
11:22
(1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
37:19
(32.1 km/h)
Run:
20:28
(4:06 / km)
Total:
59:29
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 60 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 0 / 12 |
ARG
|
+0 s
+0 s
|
G0 / G3
|
20:37
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:37 (4:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
9:48
(1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|