Prediction comparison

Elite Women

27.03.2026 Jones Park USA

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Americas Triathlon Cup Gulfport

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 27.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 90/100 hoch

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 69 früheren Rennen und 564 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 31.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 80.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 91.2 % · 69 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error12.1

Mean swim error16.1 s

Mean bike-speed error1.82 km/h

Correct bike groups24/66

No history2

Within the 80% range39.7 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 4	Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto COL	+21 s +38 s	G1 / G2	16:43 18:47	48:06	Show details Prediction details: Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 5–11 Top-10 probability: 88 % Result: 4 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +21 s Time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +38 s Fehler: -17.5 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 56 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 53 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 1.7 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 40.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.67 km/h Running and total Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km) Historical basis: 3:25 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 53 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:47 (3:45 / km) Error: −2:04 / −0:25 / km Overall prediction: 48:06 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km) Total: 48:06
2 / 2	Gwen Jorgensen USA	+13 s +25 s	G1 / G2	16:51 18:16	48:14	Show details Prediction details: Gwen Jorgensen Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 5–10 Top-10 probability: 93 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: -11.8 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 90 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 79 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 39.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.49 km/h Running and total Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 79 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:16 (3:39 / km) Error: −1:25 / −0:17 / km Overall prediction: 48:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km) Total: 48:14
3 / 1	Kelly Wetteland USA	+9 s +13 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:59 18:59	48:22	Show details Prediction details: Kelly Wetteland Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 5–12 Top-10 probability: 84 % Result: 1 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +9 s Time: 9:44 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: -4.1 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 77 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 93 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 2.9 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 40.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.05 km/h Running and total Run: 16:59 (3:24 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.89 %, Sicherheit 67 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:59 (3:48 / km) Error: −2:00 / −0:24 / km Overall prediction: 48:22 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 16:59 (3:24 / km) Total: 48:22
4 / 7	Rachel Werking USA	+17 s +18 s	G1 / G2	17:12 19:20	48:35	Show details Prediction details: Rachel Werking Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 6–13 Top-10 probability: 75 % Result: 7 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 9:52 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: -0.7 s H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 69 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.22 km/h Running and total Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:20 (3:52 / km) Error: −2:08 / −0:26 / km Overall prediction: 48:35 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km) Total: 48:35
5 / 5	Erica Hawley BER	+26 s +33 s	G1 / G2	17:13 19:16	48:36	Show details Prediction details: Erica Hawley Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 7–11 Top-10 probability: 78 % Result: 5 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +33 s Fehler: -7.1 s H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 31 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 3.0 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 40.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.64 km/h Running and total Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:16 (3:51 / km) Error: −2:03 / −0:25 / km Overall prediction: 48:36 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km) Total: 48:36
6 / 12	Josephine Seerig GER	+20 s +15 s	G1 / G1 correct	17:41 20:39	49:04	Show details Prediction details: Josephine Seerig Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 10–14 Top-10 probability: 30 % Result: 12 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 9:55 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 5.0 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 69 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.17 km/h Running and total Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 2:27 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:39 (4:08 / km) Error: −2:58 / −0:36 / km Overall prediction: 49:04 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km) Total: 49:04
7 / 3	Margareta Vrablova SVK	+36 s +14 s	G2 / G1	17:29 19:10	49:10	Show details Prediction details: Margareta Vrablova Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 9–24 Top-10 probability: 19 % Result: 3 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 10:11 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: 22.0 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.96 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 26 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 40.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.99 km/h Running and total Run: 17:29 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 40 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:10 (3:50 / km) Error: −1:41 / −0:20 / km Overall prediction: 49:10 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 17:29 (3:30 / km) Total: 49:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 9.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 14	Ellison Wolfe USA	+36 s +58 s	G2 / G3	17:34 19:28	49:15	Show details Prediction details: Ellison Wolfe Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 10–19 Top-10 probability: 23 % Result: 14 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 10:11 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: -22.1 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 1.8 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.54 km/h Running and total Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:28 (3:54 / km) Error: −1:54 / −0:23 / km Overall prediction: 49:15 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km) Total: 49:15 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 9.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 25	Molly Lakustiak CAN	+39 s +61 s	G2 / G3	17:52 20:38	49:33	Show details Prediction details: Molly Lakustiak Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 13–23 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 25 Deviation: -16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 10:14 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +61 s Fehler: -21.9 s H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 40.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.60 km/h Running and total Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:38 (4:08 / km) Error: −2:46 / −0:33 / km Overall prediction: 49:33 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km) Total: 49:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 12.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 9	Joy Gill USA	+52 s +62 s	G3 / G3 correct	16:34 19:24	49:43	Show details Prediction details: Joy Gill Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 6–21 Top-10 probability: 54 % Result: 9 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +52 s Time: 10:27 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +62 s Fehler: -9.7 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 1.9 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 40.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.99 km/h Running and total Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:24 (3:53 / km) Error: −2:50 / −0:34 / km Overall prediction: 49:43 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.1 km/h) Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km) Total: 49:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 25.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 10	Maïra Carreau CAN	+32 s +35 s	G2 / G2 correct	18:03 20:00	49:44	Show details Prediction details: Maïra Carreau Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 6–37 Top-10 probability: 29 % Result: 10 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 10:07 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: -2.8 s H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 33 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 40.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.63 km/h Running and total Run: 18:03 (3:37 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 98 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:00 (4:00 / km) Error: −1:57 / −0:23 / km Overall prediction: 49:44 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 18:03 (3:37 / km) Total: 49:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 5.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 58	Sonja De Koning NED	+16 s +65 s	G1 / G4	18:21 22:51	49:44	Show details Prediction details: Sonja De Koning Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 13–22 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 58 Deviation: -46 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 9:51 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +65 s Fehler: -49.0 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.88 %, Sicherheit 21 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 70 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 2.2 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 4 (8 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.60 km/h Running and total Run: 18:21 (3:40 / km) Historical basis: 3:39 / km Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:51 (4:34 / km) Error: −4:30 / −0:54 / km Overall prediction: 49:44 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 18:21 (3:40 / km) Total: 49:44
13 / 8	Cecilia Perez MEX	+39 s +27 s	G2 / G2 correct	18:14 19:28	49:55	Show details Prediction details: Cecilia Perez Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 13–29 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 8 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 10:14 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 12.4 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 84 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 2.3 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 39.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.47 km/h Running and total Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 73 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:28 (3:54 / km) Error: −1:14 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 49:55 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km) Total: 49:55 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 12.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 11	Gwen Watson AUS	+23 s +35 s	G1 / G2	18:36 19:53	49:59	Show details Prediction details: Gwen Watson Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 17–25 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 9:58 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: -12.1 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 53 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 49 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 3.0 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 39.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.42 km/h Running and total Run: 18:36 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 1.36 %, Sicherheit 49 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:53 (3:59 / km) Error: −1:17 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 49:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 18:36 (3:43 / km) Total: 49:59
15 / 21	Julia Visgueiro BRA	+42 s +46 s	G2 / G3	18:20 20:09	50:01	Show details Prediction details: Julia Visgueiro Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 16–37 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 21 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 10:17 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: -4.3 s H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -1.27 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 18 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 2.3 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.23 km/h Running and total Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km) Historical basis: 3:41 / km Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:09 (4:02 / km) Error: −1:49 / −0:22 / km Overall prediction: 50:01 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km) Total: 50:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 14.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 33	Jimena Renata De La Peña Schott USA	+29 s +28 s	G2 / G2 correct	18:21 21:47	50:02	Show details Prediction details: Jimena Renata De La Peña Schott Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 14–25 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 33 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 10:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: 0.5 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 34 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 39.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.56 km/h Running and total Run: 18:21 (3:40 / km) Historical basis: 3:41 / km Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 10 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:47 (4:21 / km) Error: −3:26 / −0:41 / km Overall prediction: 50:02 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 18:21 (3:40 / km) Total: 50:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 1.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 19	Alexandra Campbell CAN	+19 s +26 s	G1 / G2	18:41 20:34	50:04	Show details Prediction details: Alexandra Campbell Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 16–28 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 19 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: 9:54 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: -6.8 s H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 61 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 39.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.44 km/h Running and total Run: 18:41 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:34 (4:07 / km) Error: −1:53 / −0:23 / km Overall prediction: 50:04 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 18:41 (3:44 / km) Total: 50:04
18 / 41	Micah Gay CAN	+43 s +66 s	G2 / G4	18:35 20:13	50:16	Show details Prediction details: Micah Gay Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 14–41 Top-10 probability: 8 % Result: 41 Deviation: -23 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 10:18 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +66 s Fehler: -23.4 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 4 (8 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.58 km/h Running and total Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:44 / km Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:13 (4:03 / km) Error: −1:38 / −0:20 / km Overall prediction: 50:16 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km) Total: 50:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 15.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 17	Kjara Reckmann GER	+12 s +26 s	G1 / G2	18:55 20:20	50:18	Show details Prediction details: Kjara Reckmann Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 15–31 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 17 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +12 s Time: 9:47 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: -14.2 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 90 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 2.9 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 39.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.51 km/h Running and total Run: 18:55 (3:47 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:20 (4:04 / km) Error: −1:25 / −0:17 / km Overall prediction: 50:18 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 18:55 (3:47 / km) Total: 50:18
20 / 18	Dana Prikrylova CZE	+22 s +28 s	G1 / G2	18:55 20:23	50:18	Show details Prediction details: Dana Prikrylova Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 13–35 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 18 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 9:57 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: -5.8 s H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.95 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 55 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 1.7 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 39.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.53 km/h Running and total Run: 18:55 (3:47 / km) Historical basis: 3:48 / km Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:23 (4:05 / km) Error: −1:28 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: 50:18 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 18:55 (3:47 / km) Total: 50:18
21 / 13	Ruth Pardy USA	+43 s +21 s	G2 / G1	18:43 20:40	50:24	Show details Prediction details: Ruth Pardy Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 18–42 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 13 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 10:18 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 22.0 s H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 40.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.22 km/h Running and total Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:47 / km Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:40 (4:08 / km) Error: −1:57 / −0:23 / km Overall prediction: 50:24 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km) Total: 50:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 16.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 26	Mia Wentzy USA	+30 s +61 s	G2 / G3	18:45 20:40	50:26	Show details Prediction details: Mia Wentzy Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 18–33 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 26 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 10:05 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +61 s Fehler: -30.9 s H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 35 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.49 km/h Running and total Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:40 (4:08 / km) Error: −1:55 / −0:23 / km Overall prediction: 50:26 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km) Total: 50:26 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 3.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 15	Chelsea Webber USA	+37 s +18 s	G2 / G1	18:45 20:47	50:26	Show details Prediction details: Chelsea Webber Placement Prediction: 23 80% range: 13–42 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 15 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 10:12 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: 19.2 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 20 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 40.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.22 km/h Running and total Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:47 (4:09 / km) Error: −2:02 / −0:24 / km Overall prediction: 50:26 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km) Total: 50:26 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 10.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 6	Zoe Adam PUR	+12 s +18 s	G1 / G1 correct	19:20 20:00	50:43	Show details Prediction details: Zoe Adam Placement Prediction: 24 80% range: 15–41 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 6 Deviation: 18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +12 s Time: 9:47 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: -6.0 s H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 86 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.12 km/h Running and total Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 2:30 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:00 (4:00 / km) Error: −0:40 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 50:43 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km) Total: 50:43
25 / 16	Liberty Ricca USA	+14 s +20 s	G1 / G2	19:22 20:17	50:45	Show details Prediction details: Liberty Ricca Placement Prediction: 25 80% range: 22–34 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: 9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:49 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: -6.2 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 80 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 74 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 2.2 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 39.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.33 km/h Running and total Run: 19:22 (3:52 / km) Historical basis: 3:57 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 67 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:17 (4:03 / km) Error: −0:55 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 50:45 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 19:22 (3:52 / km) Total: 50:45
26 / 43	Anna Maria Besenyei ROU	+38 s +41 s	G2 / G3	19:11 22:07	50:52	Show details Prediction details: Anna Maria Besenyei Placement Prediction: 26 80% range: 26–42 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 43 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +41 s Fehler: -2.7 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.12 km/h Running and total Run: 19:11 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:07 (4:25 / km) Error: −2:56 / −0:35 / km Overall prediction: 50:52 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 19:11 (3:50 / km) Total: 50:52 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 11.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 22	Maite Küstner GER	+44 s +53 s	G2 / G3	19:17 20:19	50:58	Show details Prediction details: Maite Küstner Placement Prediction: 27 80% range: 25–44 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 22 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 10:19 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: -9.5 s H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 92 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.42 km/h Running and total Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:58 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.98 %, Sicherheit 81 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:19 (4:04 / km) Error: −1:02 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 50:58 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km) Total: 50:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 16.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 35	Emma Jean Neal CAN	+43 s +33 s	G2 / G2 correct	19:23 22:05	51:04	Show details Prediction details: Emma Jean Neal Placement Prediction: 28 80% range: 29–40 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 35 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 10:18 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +33 s Fehler: 10.1 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 40.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.58 km/h Running and total Run: 19:23 (3:53 / km) Historical basis: 3:52 / km Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:05 (4:25 / km) Error: −2:42 / −0:32 / km Overall prediction: 51:04 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 19:23 (3:53 / km) Total: 51:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 16.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 20	Gabrielle Lemes BRA	+68 s +51 s	G4 / G3	17:58 20:12	51:12	Show details Prediction details: Gabrielle Lemes Placement Prediction: 29 80% range: 19–48 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: 9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +68 s Time: 10:43 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +51 s Fehler: 17.4 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.1 s Gap behind: 1.6 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.59 km/h Running and total Run: 17:58 (3:36 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:12 (4:02 / km) Error: −2:14 / −0:27 / km Overall prediction: 51:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:43 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:57 (37.3 km/h) Run: 17:58 (3:36 / km) Total: 51:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 41.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 23	Cara Macdonald CAN	+18 s +21 s	G1 / G1 correct	19:52 21:27	51:15	Show details Prediction details: Cara Macdonald Placement Prediction: 30 80% range: 28–38 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 23 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 9:53 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: -3.2 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 69 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 40.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.26 km/h Running and total Run: 19:52 (3:58 / km) Historical basis: 3:59 / km Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:27 (4:17 / km) Error: −1:35 / −0:19 / km Overall prediction: 51:15 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 19:52 (3:58 / km) Total: 51:15
31 / 42	Rylan Lonergan USA	+23 s +43 s	G1 / G3	20:00 22:00	51:23	Show details Prediction details: Rylan Lonergan Placement Prediction: 31 80% range: 31–40 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 42 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 9:58 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: -20.2 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 40 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 46 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.07 km/h Running and total Run: 20:00 (4:00 / km) Historical basis: 4:00 / km Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 45 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:00 (4:24 / km) Error: −2:00 / −0:24 / km Overall prediction: 51:23 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 20:00 (4:00 / km) Total: 51:23
32 / 62	Alessandra Maso ITA	+44 s +78 s	G2 / G5	19:43 23:03	51:24	Show details Prediction details: Alessandra Maso Placement Prediction: 32 80% range: 32–43 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 62 Deviation: -30 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 10:19 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +78 s Fehler: -34.5 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 4.1 s Result: Group 5 (13 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.13 km/h Running and total Run: 19:43 (3:57 / km) Historical basis: 3:56 / km Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:03 (4:37 / km) Error: −3:20 / −0:40 / km Overall prediction: 51:24 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 19:43 (3:57 / km) Total: 51:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 16.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 29	Faith Duncan USA	+62 s +71 s	G3 / G4	18:19 19:06	51:28	Show details Prediction details: Faith Duncan Placement Prediction: 33 80% range: 21–48 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 29 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +62 s Time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +71 s Fehler: -8.7 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 30 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 4 (8 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.86 km/h Running and total Run: 18:19 (3:40 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 28 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:06 (3:49 / km) Error: −0:47 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 51:28 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.1 km/h) Run: 18:19 (3:40 / km) Total: 51:28 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 35.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 24	Faith Dasso USA	+34 s +24 s	G2 / G1	20:11 21:46	51:52	Show details Prediction details: Faith Dasso Placement Prediction: 34 80% range: 28–49 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 24 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 10:09 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +24 s Fehler: 10.1 s H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 1.8 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 40.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.31 km/h Running and total Run: 20:11 (4:02 / km) Historical basis: 4:03 / km Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:46 (4:21 / km) Error: −1:35 / −0:19 / km Overall prediction: 51:52 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 20:11 (4:02 / km) Total: 51:52 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 7.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 59	Laura Mathews USA	+63 s +69 s	G3 / G5	18:59 22:10	52:08	Show details Prediction details: Laura Mathews Placement Prediction: 35 80% range: 29–48 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 59 Deviation: -24 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +63 s Time: 10:38 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +69 s Fehler: -6.4 s H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 5 (13 people) Speed: 37.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.03 km/h Running and total Run: 18:59 (3:48 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:10 (4:26 / km) Error: −3:11 / −0:38 / km Overall prediction: 52:08 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:38 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.1 km/h) Run: 18:59 (3:48 / km) Total: 52:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 35.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 27	Amanda Moro BRA	+58 s +43 s	G3 / G3 correct	19:08 20:31	52:17	Show details Prediction details: Amanda Moro Placement Prediction: 36 80% range: 28–54 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 27 Deviation: 9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +58 s Time: 10:33 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: 15.3 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.68 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.54 km/h Running and total Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:49 / km Best comparable pace: 2:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:31 (4:06 / km) Error: −1:23 / −0:17 / km Overall prediction: 52:17 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.1 km/h) Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km) Total: 52:17 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 31.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 39	Regina Michel Camacho MEX	+70 s +73 s	G4 / G4 correct	19:05 20:15	52:19	Show details Prediction details: Regina Michel Camacho Placement Prediction: 37 80% range: 20–55 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 39 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +70 s Time: 10:45 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +73 s Fehler: -2.8 s H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -1.26 %, Sicherheit 83 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 4 (8 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.64 km/h Running and total Run: 19:05 (3:49 / km) Historical basis: 3:54 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 76 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:15 (4:03 / km) Error: −1:10 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: 52:19 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:45 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:57 (37.3 km/h) Run: 19:05 (3:49 / km) Total: 52:19 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 43.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 47	Lucrezia Gowdy USA	+22 s +40 s	G1 / G3	21:02 23:08	52:25	Show details Prediction details: Lucrezia Gowdy Placement Prediction: 38 80% range: 42–48 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 47 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 9:57 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: -17.8 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 49 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 54 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.09 km/h Running and total Run: 21:02 (4:12 / km) Historical basis: 4:11 / km Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:08 (4:38 / km) Error: −2:06 / −0:25 / km Overall prediction: 52:25 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 21:02 (4:12 / km) Total: 52:25
39 / 56	Shelby Lajeunesse CAN	+34 s +74 s	G2 / G4	20:47 22:32	52:28	Show details Prediction details: Shelby Lajeunesse Placement Prediction: 39 80% range: 31–54 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 56 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 10:09 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +74 s Fehler: -40.3 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 34 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 4 (8 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.46 km/h Running and total Run: 20:47 (4:09 / km) Historical basis: 4:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:32 (4:30 / km) Error: −1:45 / −0:21 / km Overall prediction: 52:28 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 20:47 (4:09 / km) Total: 52:28 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 6.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 36	Isabella Fernandez PUR	+65 s +57 s	G3 / G3 correct	19:26 21:50	52:35	Show details Prediction details: Isabella Fernandez Placement Prediction: 40 80% range: 24–56 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 36 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +65 s Time: 10:40 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +57 s Fehler: 8.3 s H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 3.1 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.72 km/h Running and total Run: 19:26 (3:53 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 1.58 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:50 (4:22 / km) Error: −2:24 / −0:29 / km Overall prediction: 52:35 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.1 km/h) Run: 19:26 (3:53 / km) Total: 52:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 38.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 30	Emma Ryšávková CZE	+52 s +46 s	G3 / G3 correct	19:27 20:52	52:36	Show details Prediction details: Emma Ryšávková Placement Prediction: 41 80% range: 24–50 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 30 Deviation: 11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +52 s Time: 10:27 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: 6.2 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -1.41 %, Sicherheit 34 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 4.6 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.46 km/h Running and total Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km) Historical basis: 3:57 / km Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 33 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:52 (4:10 / km) Error: −1:25 / −0:17 / km Overall prediction: 52:36 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.1 km/h) Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km) Total: 52:36 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 25.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 54	Stefania Salazar TRI	+64 s +72 s	G3 / G4	19:30 22:11	52:39	Show details Prediction details: Stefania Salazar Placement Prediction: 42 80% range: 27–54 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 54 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +64 s Time: 10:39 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +72 s Fehler: -8.2 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 26 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 4 (8 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.88 km/h Running and total Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km) Historical basis: 3:56 / km Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 26 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:11 (4:26 / km) Error: −2:41 / −0:32 / km Overall prediction: 52:39 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:39 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.1 km/h) Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km) Total: 52:39 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 37 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 61	Hope Frost USA	+57 s +76 s	G3 / G5	19:51 22:49	53:00	Show details Prediction details: Hope Frost Placement Prediction: 43 80% range: 39–49 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 61 Deviation: -18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +57 s Time: 10:32 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +76 s Fehler: -19.4 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 67 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 2.4 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 5 (13 people) Speed: 37.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.09 km/h Running and total Run: 19:51 (3:58 / km) Historical basis: 3:58 / km Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 67 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:49 (4:34 / km) Error: −2:58 / −0:36 / km Overall prediction: 53:00 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.1 km/h) Run: 19:51 (3:58 / km) Total: 53:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 29.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 31	Marley Andelman USA	+54 s +56 s	G3 / G3 correct	19:59 21:17	53:08	Show details Prediction details: Marley Andelman Placement Prediction: 44 80% range: 27–55 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 31 Deviation: 13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +54 s Time: 10:29 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +56 s Fehler: -1.8 s H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 1.9 s Gap behind: 2.4 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.79 km/h Running and total Run: 19:59 (4:00 / km) Historical basis: 4:01 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:17 (4:15 / km) Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km Overall prediction: 53:08 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.1 km/h) Run: 19:59 (4:00 / km) Total: 53:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 27.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 32	Anabelle Saindon CAN	+60 s +65 s	G3 / G3 correct	20:04 21:14	53:13	Show details Prediction details: Anabelle Saindon Placement Prediction: 45 80% range: 43–51 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 32 Deviation: 13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +60 s Time: 10:35 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +65 s Fehler: -5.4 s H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.83 km/h Running and total Run: 20:04 (4:01 / km) Historical basis: 4:04 / km Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:14 (4:15 / km) Error: −1:10 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: 53:13 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:35 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.1 km/h) Run: 20:04 (4:01 / km) Total: 53:13 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 32.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 50	Astrid Bergman CAN	+14 s +28 s	G1 / G2	22:08 23:59	53:31	Show details Prediction details: Astrid Bergman Placement Prediction: 46 80% range: 43–57 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 50 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:49 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: -14.5 s H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 86 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (14 people) Speed: 39.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.49 km/h Running and total Run: 22:08 (4:26 / km) Historical basis: 4:27 / km Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:59 (4:48 / km) Error: −1:51 / −0:22 / km Overall prediction: 53:31 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 22:08 (4:26 / km) Total: 53:31
47 / 37	Sara Melitta Gimena Schümmelfeder ESP	+61 s +45 s	G3 / G3 correct	20:33 21:45	53:42	Show details Prediction details: Sara Melitta Gimena Schümmelfeder Placement Prediction: 47 80% range: 42–56 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 37 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: 10:36 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +45 s Fehler: 15.7 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -1.33 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.54 km/h Running and total Run: 20:33 (4:07 / km) Historical basis: 4:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:45 (4:21 / km) Error: −1:12 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: 53:42 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.1 km/h) Run: 20:33 (4:07 / km) Total: 53:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 33.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 40	Andie Psilopoulos USA	+28 s +14 s	G2 / G1	22:08 23:09	53:49	Show details Prediction details: Andie Psilopoulos Placement Prediction: 48 80% range: 42–57 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 40 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 10:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: 14.0 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 77 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 25 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 40.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.06 km/h Running and total Run: 22:08 (4:26 / km) Historical basis: 4:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 46 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:09 (4:38 / km) Error: −1:01 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 53:49 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: 22:08 (4:26 / km) Total: 53:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 1.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 64	Franziska Neck GER	+48 s +45 s	G3 / G5	20:42 23:25	53:51	Show details Prediction details: Franziska Neck Placement Prediction: 49 80% range: 34–56 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 64 Deviation: -15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 10:23 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +45 s Fehler: 2.6 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 90 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 4.1 s Gap behind: 4.6 s Result: Group 5 (13 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.39 km/h Running and total Run: 20:42 (4:08 / km) Historical basis: 4:10 / km Best comparable pace: 2:43 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 82 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:25 (4:41 / km) Error: −2:43 / −0:33 / km Overall prediction: 53:51 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.1 km/h) Run: 20:42 (4:08 / km) Total: 53:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 20.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 51	Selene Martinez Avila MEX	+98 s +106 s	G5 / G5 correct	18:14 21:02	53:58	Show details Prediction details: Selene Martinez Avila Placement Prediction: 50 80% range: 40–58 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 51 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +98 s Time: 11:13 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +106 s Fehler: -7.9 s H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.6 s Gap behind: 1.9 s Result: Group 5 (13 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.95 km/h Running and total Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:02 (4:12 / km) Error: −2:48 / −0:34 / km Overall prediction: 53:58 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:13 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:03 (34.9 km/h) Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km) Total: 53:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 71.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 65	Mia Remorca USA	+62 s +101 s	G3 / G5	20:50 23:42	53:59	Show details Prediction details: Mia Remorca Placement Prediction: 51 80% range: 48–57 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 65 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +62 s Time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +101 s Fehler: -38.9 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 5 (13 people) Speed: 37.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.62 km/h Running and total Run: 20:50 (4:10 / km) Historical basis: 4:09 / km Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:42 (4:44 / km) Error: −2:52 / −0:34 / km Overall prediction: 53:59 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.1 km/h) Run: 20:50 (4:10 / km) Total: 53:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 35.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 48	Rebecca Nolan RSA	+58 s +64 s	G3 / G4	21:02 21:19	54:11	Show details Prediction details: Rebecca Nolan Placement Prediction: 52 80% range: 48–55 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 48 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +58 s Time: 10:33 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +64 s Fehler: -5.9 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 4 (8 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.76 km/h Running and total Run: 21:02 (4:12 / km) Historical basis: 4:12 / km Best comparable pace: 4:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Ergebnis Lauf: 21:19 (4:16 / km) Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 54:11 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.1 km/h) Run: 21:02 (4:12 / km) Total: 54:11 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 31.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 / 34	Luna Sraka SLO	+59 s +58 s	G3 / G3 correct	21:49 21:34	54:58	Show details Prediction details: Luna Sraka Placement Prediction: 53 80% range: 52–61 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 34 Deviation: 19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +59 s Time: 10:34 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: 0.6 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.70 km/h Running and total Run: 21:49 (4:22 / km) Historical basis: 4:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:34 (4:19 / km) Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 54:58 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.1 km/h) Run: 21:49 (4:22 / km) Total: 54:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 31.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 / 55	Emily Knopfle USA	+101 s +113 s	G5 / G5 correct	20:19 21:51	56:03	Show details Prediction details: Emily Knopfle Placement Prediction: 54 80% range: 52–60 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 55 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +101 s Time: 11:16 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +113 s Fehler: -12.3 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 45 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 18.4 s Result: Group 5 (13 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.17 km/h Running and total Run: 20:19 (4:04 / km) Historical basis: 4:04 / km Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 43 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:51 (4:22 / km) Error: −1:32 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: 56:03 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 11:16 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:03 (34.9 km/h) Run: 20:19 (4:04 / km) Total: 56:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 73.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
55 / 57	Valentina Sofia Negron PUR	+91 s +110 s	G5 / G5 correct	20:31 21:50	56:15	Show details Prediction details: Valentina Sofia Negron Placement Prediction: 55 80% range: 51–61 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 57 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +91 s Time: 11:06 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +110 s Fehler: -19.2 s H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 13.6 s Gap behind: 2.7 s Result: Group 5 (13 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.93 km/h Running and total Run: 20:31 (4:06 / km) Historical basis: 4:07 / km Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:50 (4:22 / km) Error: −1:19 / −0:16 / km Overall prediction: 56:15 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:06 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:03 (34.9 km/h) Run: 20:31 (4:06 / km) Total: 56:15 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 64 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
56 / 46	Ella Spitz USA	+94 s +60 s	G5 / G3	20:51 22:51	56:35	Show details Prediction details: Ella Spitz Placement Prediction: 56 80% range: 57–61 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 46 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +94 s Time: 11:09 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +60 s Fehler: 33.5 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -1.42 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 4.6 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.98 km/h Running and total Run: 20:51 (4:10 / km) Historical basis: 4:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 94 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:51 (4:34 / km) Error: −2:00 / −0:24 / km Overall prediction: 56:35 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 11:09 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:03 (34.9 km/h) Run: 20:51 (4:10 / km) Total: 56:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 66.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
57 / 67	Mikele Katerina Jopson PHI	+119 s +111 s	G6 / G6 correct	20:24 21:59	56:52	Show details Prediction details: Mikele Katerina Jopson Placement Prediction: 57 80% range: 58–61 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 67 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +119 s Time: 11:34 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +111 s Fehler: 8.1 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 18.4 s Gap behind: 22.1 s Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 31.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.78 km/h Running and total Run: 20:24 (4:05 / km) Historical basis: 4:03 / km Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:59 (4:24 / km) Error: −1:35 / −0:19 / km Overall prediction: 56:52 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 11:34 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:29 (34.5 km/h) Run: 20:24 (4:05 / km) Total: 56:52 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 92.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
58 / 44	Morgan O'Keefe USA	+199 s +97 s	G8 / G5	18:39 19:51	58:46	Show details Prediction details: Morgan O'Keefe Placement Prediction: 58 80% range: 62–63 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 44 Deviation: 14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +199 s Time: 12:54 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +97 s Fehler: 101.6 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -1.58 %, Sicherheit 53 % Cycling Prediction: Group 8 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 22.6 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (13 people) Speed: 37.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.63 km/h Running and total Run: 18:39 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:44 / km Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 49 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:51 (3:58 / km) Error: −1:12 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: 58:46 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 12:54 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:48 (32.0 km/h) Run: 18:39 (3:44 / km) Total: 58:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 171.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
59 / 63	Lucy Eggleston USA	+141 s +109 s	G7 / G5	20:34 23:20	59:12	Show details Prediction details: Lucy Eggleston Placement Prediction: 59 80% range: 62–64 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 63 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +141 s Time: 11:56 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +109 s Fehler: 32.2 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 22.1 s Gap behind: 34.8 s Result: Group 5 (13 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.17 km/h Running and total Run: 20:34 (4:07 / km) Historical basis: 4:09 / km Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:20 (4:40 / km) Error: −2:46 / −0:33 / km Overall prediction: 59:12 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 11:56 (1:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:17 (32.7 km/h) Run: 20:34 (4:07 / km) Total: 59:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 114.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
60 / 53	Katja Krenn AUT	+94 s +115 s	G5 / G5 correct	25:29 21:16	1:01:13	Show details Prediction details: Katja Krenn Placement Prediction: 60 80% range: 64–65 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 53 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +94 s Time: 11:09 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +115 s Fehler: -21.5 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.79 %, Sicherheit 0 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.7 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 5 (13 people) Speed: 38.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.13 km/h Running and total Run: 25:29 (5:06 / km) Historical basis: 5:14 / km Best comparable pace: 4:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 0 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:16 (4:15 / km) Error: +4:13 / +0:51 / km Overall prediction: 1:01:13 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:09 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:03 (34.9 km/h) Run: 25:29 (5:06 / km) Total: 1:01:13 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 66.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
61 / 68	Mariana Quiroga Giraldo COL	+176 s +161 s	G8 / G6	21:45 23:39	1:01:52	Show details Prediction details: Mariana Quiroga Giraldo Placement Prediction: 61 80% range: 64–65 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 68 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +176 s Time: 12:31 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +161 s Fehler: 15.0 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -1.50 %, Sicherheit 31 % Cycling Prediction: Group 8 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 34.8 s Gap behind: 22.6 s Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 32.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.27 km/h Running and total Run: 21:45 (4:21 / km) Historical basis: 4:27 / km Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:39 (4:44 / km) Error: −1:54 / −0:23 / km Overall prediction: 1:01:52 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:31 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:48 (32.0 km/h) Run: 21:45 (4:21 / km) Total: 1:01:52 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 149.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
62 / 45	Zoila Sicilia Martin ESP	+77 s +110 s	G4 / G5	35:49 20:30	1:09:03	Show details Prediction details: Zoila Sicilia Martin Placement Prediction: 62 80% range: 66–66 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 45 Deviation: 17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +77 s Time: 10:52 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +110 s Fehler: -32.8 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.2 s Gap behind: 13.6 s Result: Group 5 (13 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.64 km/h Running and total Run: 35:49 (7:10 / km) Historical basis: 7:21 / km Best comparable pace: 7:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:30 (4:06 / km) Error: +15:19 / +3:04 / km Overall prediction: 1:09:03 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:52 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:57 (37.3 km/h) Run: 35:49 (7:10 / km) Total: 1:09:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 50.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 28	Taylor Walker USA	+0 s +56 s	G0 / G3	20:42		Show details Prediction details: Taylor Walker Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 67–67 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 28 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +56 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 40.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:42 (4:08 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 38	Mackenzie McConagha USA	+0 s +0 s	G0 / G1	23:01		Show details Prediction details: Mackenzie McConagha Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 68–68 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 38 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 40.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:01 (4:36 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 49	Kennedy Calcagno USA	+70 s +43 s	G4 / G3	23:12		Show details Prediction details: Kennedy Calcagno Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 49 Deviation: -49 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +70 s Time: 10:45 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: 27.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.6 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.37 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:12 (4:38 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 10:45 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:57 (37.3 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 43.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 52	Manuella Lima USA	+29 s +54 s	G2 / G3	23:30		Show details Prediction details: Manuella Lima Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 52 Deviation: -52 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 10:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +54 s Fehler: -25.1 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 35 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (19 people) Gruppe 1: 25 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 3 (22 people) Speed: 39.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.31 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:30 (4:42 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:57 (38.4 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 2.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 60	Aida Barnard MEX	+100 s +76 s	G5 / G5 correct	22:37		Show details Prediction details: Aida Barnard Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 60 Deviation: -60 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +100 s Time: 11:15 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +76 s Fehler: 24.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.9 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 5 (13 people) Speed: 37.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.53 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:37 (4:31 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:15 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:03 (34.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 73.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 66	Geraldine Alejandra Vázquez Pérez MEX	+71 s +47 s	G4 / G4 correct	24:28		Show details Prediction details: Geraldine Alejandra Vázquez Pérez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 66 Deviation: -66 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +71 s Time: 10:46 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: 24.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 6.2 s Result: Group 4 (8 people) Speed: 37.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.34 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:28 (4:54 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:57 (37.3 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 44.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling