Prediction comparison

Elite Men

16.05.2026 MEX

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Americas Triathlon Cup Ixtapa

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 16.05.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 91/100 hoch

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 77 früheren Rennen und 1935 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 46.4 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.05.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 82.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 91.2 % · 77 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error15.7

Mean swim error20.7 s

Mean bike-speed error2.34 km/h

Correct bike groups12/67

No history1

Within the 80% range36.8 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 3	Osvaldo Darell Zuñiga Fierro MEX	+35 s +20 s	G2 / G1	14:50 14:58	43:02	Show details Prediction details: Osvaldo Darell Zuñiga Fierro Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 5–14 Top-10 probability: 81 % Result: 3 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 14.7 s H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 181 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 34 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.68 km/h Running and total Run: 14:50 (3:01 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 183 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:58 (3:02 / km) Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 43:02 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 14:50 (3:01 / km) Total: 43:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 3.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 1	Alejandro Rodriguez Diez CUB	+36 s +18 s	G2 / G1	15:04 14:39	43:16	Show details Prediction details: Alejandro Rodriguez Diez Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 5–25 Top-10 probability: 64 % Result: 1 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 9:26 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: 18.1 s H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 40 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.80 km/h Running and total Run: 15:04 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:04 / km Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 81 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:39 (2:58 / km) Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 43:16 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 15:04 (3:03 / km) Total: 43:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 5.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 10	Keller Norland USA	+27 s +11 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:24 15:32	43:32	Show details Prediction details: Keller Norland Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 5–27 Top-10 probability: 54 % Result: 10 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +11 s Fehler: 16.1 s H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 172 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 44 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.39 km/h Running and total Run: 15:24 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 171 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:32 (3:09 / km) Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 43:32 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h) Run: 15:24 (3:07 / km) Total: 43:32
4 / 12	Angel Yael Yépez Meza MEX	+48 s +37 s	G2 / G1	15:30 15:30	43:42	Show details Prediction details: Angel Yael Yépez Meza Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 10–25 Top-10 probability: 21 % Result: 12 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 9:38 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: 10.6 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 2.2 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.36 km/h Running and total Run: 15:30 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (3:09 / km) Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 43:42 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 15:30 (3:09 / km) Total: 43:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 16.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 9	Ivan Anzaldo ARG	+39 s +14 s	G2 / G1	15:33 15:25	43:45	Show details Prediction details: Ivan Anzaldo Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 9–20 Top-10 probability: 26 % Result: 9 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 9:29 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: 24.8 s H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 29 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.71 km/h Running and total Run: 15:33 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km Trend: −0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:25 (3:08 / km) Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 43:45 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 15:33 (3:09 / km) Total: 43:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 7.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 33	Miguel Angel Márquez Alemán MEX	+25 s +12 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:37 16:47	43:45	Show details Prediction details: Miguel Angel Márquez Alemán Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 9–16 Top-10 probability: 24 % Result: 33 Deviation: -27 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 13.2 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 48 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.51 km/h Running and total Run: 15:37 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:47 (3:24 / km) Error: −1:10 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: 43:45 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h) Run: 15:37 (3:10 / km) Total: 43:45
7 / 7	Vinicius Avi Santana BRA	+46 s +40 s	G2 / G1	15:35 15:08	43:47	Show details Prediction details: Vinicius Avi Santana Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 7–38 Top-10 probability: 31 % Result: 7 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 9:36 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: 6.2 s H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 128 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.95 km/h Running and total Run: 15:35 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:08 (3:04 / km) Error: +0:27 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 43:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 15:35 (3:10 / km) Total: 43:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 15.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 31	Sebastian Zurob CHI	+37 s +6 s	G2 / G1	15:36 16:41	43:48	Show details Prediction details: Sebastian Zurob Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 7–23 Top-10 probability: 30 % Result: 31 Deviation: -23 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:27 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 31.3 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 29 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.88 km/h Running and total Run: 15:36 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:41 (3:23 / km) Error: −1:05 / −0:13 / km Overall prediction: 43:48 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 15:36 (3:10 / km) Total: 43:48 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 6.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 13	Blake Harris CAN	+32 s +19 s	G2 / G1	15:38 15:38	43:50	Show details Prediction details: Blake Harris Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 7–22 Top-10 probability: 40 % Result: 13 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +19 s Fehler: 13.3 s H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 184 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 41 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.2 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.51 km/h Running and total Run: 15:38 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 180 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:38 (3:10 / km) Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 43:50 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 15:38 (3:10 / km) Total: 43:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 1.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 2	Porter Middaugh USA	+51 s +19 s	G2 / G1	15:39 14:34	43:51	Show details Prediction details: Porter Middaugh Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 11–41 Top-10 probability: 10 % Result: 2 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +51 s Time: 9:41 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +19 s Fehler: 32.3 s H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 9 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 3.7 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.76 km/h Running and total Run: 15:39 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:34 (2:57 / km) Error: +1:05 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 43:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 15:39 (3:10 / km) Total: 43:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 20.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 23	Alexander Bozhilov BUL	+25 s +5 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:44 16:26	43:52	Show details Prediction details: Alexander Bozhilov Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 7–19 Top-10 probability: 29 % Result: 23 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: 19.5 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 54 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.41 km/h Running and total Run: 15:44 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:26 (3:20 / km) Error: −0:42 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 43:52 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h) Run: 15:44 (3:11 / km) Total: 43:52
12 / 11	Tiago Muñoz ARG	+46 s +27 s	G2 / G1	15:45 15:31	43:57	Show details Prediction details: Tiago Muñoz Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 10–32 Top-10 probability: 14 % Result: 11 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 9:36 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 18.8 s H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 196 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.51 km/h Running and total Run: 15:45 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 194 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:31 (3:09 / km) Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 43:57 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 15:45 (3:12 / km) Total: 43:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 14.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 15	Alvaro Campos Solano CRC	+20 s +6 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:51 15:57	43:59	Show details Prediction details: Alvaro Campos Solano Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 11–20 Top-10 probability: 10 % Result: 15 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 9:10 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 14.4 s H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 185 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 51 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 3.3 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.54 km/h Running and total Run: 15:51 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 180 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:57 (3:14 / km) Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 43:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h) Run: 15:51 (3:13 / km) Total: 43:59
14 / 36	Erick Arturo Ortigoza Rodriguez MEX	+38 s +20 s	G2 / G1	15:49 17:02	44:01	Show details Prediction details: Erick Arturo Ortigoza Rodriguez Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 8–31 Top-10 probability: 16 % Result: 36 Deviation: -22 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 18.1 s H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 28 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.66 km/h Running and total Run: 15:49 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:02 (3:27 / km) Error: −1:13 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 44:01 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 15:49 (3:12 / km) Total: 44:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 7.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 53	David Hernandez Muñoz CRC	+36 s +21 s	G2 / G4	15:56 17:42	44:08	Show details Prediction details: David Hernandez Muñoz Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 13–22 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 53 Deviation: -38 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 9:26 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 14.5 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 23 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 38 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.65 km/h Running and total Run: 15:56 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.91 %, Sicherheit 23 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:42 (3:35 / km) Error: −1:46 / −0:21 / km Overall prediction: 44:08 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 15:56 (3:14 / km) Total: 44:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 4.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 19	Dylan Didier Campa Carranza MEX	+14 s +6 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:06 16:00	44:14	Show details Prediction details: Dylan Didier Campa Carranza Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 5–36 Top-10 probability: 40 % Result: 19 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:04 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 8.0 s H2H: 54 Gegner:innen, 185 Duelle, Korrektur 1.00 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 78 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 1.8 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.44 km/h Running and total Run: 16:06 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 54 Gegner:innen, 171 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:15 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 44:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h) Run: 16:06 (3:16 / km) Total: 44:14
17 / 8	Rodrigo Probert González MEX	+42 s +13 s	G2 / G1	16:12 15:31	44:24	Show details Prediction details: Rodrigo Probert González Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 8–50 Top-10 probability: 16 % Result: 8 Deviation: 9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 28.7 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.7 s Gap behind: 1.6 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.71 km/h Running and total Run: 16:12 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:31 (3:09 / km) Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 44:24 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 16:12 (3:17 / km) Total: 44:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 10.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 30	Thomas Castañeda Maldonado ARG	+48 s +12 s	G2 / G1	16:21 16:45	44:33	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Castañeda Maldonado Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 20–49 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 30 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 9:38 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 35.5 s H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 226 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.73 km/h Running and total Run: 16:21 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 226 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:45 (3:24 / km) Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 44:33 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 16:21 (3:19 / km) Total: 44:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 16.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 6	Eduardo Nuñez Gomez MEX	+16 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:25 15:04	44:33	Show details Prediction details: Eduardo Nuñez Gomez Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 9–32 Top-10 probability: 14 % Result: 6 Deviation: 13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 15.8 s H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 180 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 51 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.8 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 41.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.73 km/h Running and total Run: 16:25 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 172 Duelle, Korrektur -1.44 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:04 (3:03 / km) Error: +1:21 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 44:33 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h) Run: 16:25 (3:20 / km) Total: 44:33
20 / 28	Dante Jesus Orozco Espinoza MEX	+33 s +15 s	G2 / G1	16:22 16:31	44:34	Show details Prediction details: Dante Jesus Orozco Espinoza Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 8–39 Top-10 probability: 18 % Result: 28 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 18.2 s H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 41 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.78 km/h Running and total Run: 16:22 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:31 (3:21 / km) Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 44:34 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 16:22 (3:19 / km) Total: 44:34 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 2.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 49	Jake Derouin USA	+27 s +35 s	G1 / G4	16:52 16:18	45:00	Show details Prediction details: Jake Derouin Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 22–35 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 49 Deviation: -28 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: -7.6 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 43 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 39.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.02 km/h Running and total Run: 16:52 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 94 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:18 (3:18 / km) Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 45:00 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h) Run: 16:52 (3:25 / km) Total: 45:00
22 / 17	Arturo Mateos Aviles MEX	+40 s +32 s	G2 / G1	16:51 15:47	45:03	Show details Prediction details: Arturo Mateos Aviles Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 23–38 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 9:30 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +32 s Fehler: 8.0 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur 0.91 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 25 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 1.7 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.31 km/h Running and total Run: 16:51 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 88 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:47 (3:12 / km) Error: +1:04 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 45:03 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 16:51 (3:25 / km) Total: 45:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 16	Peyton Miller USA	+35 s +24 s	G2 / G1	16:57 15:47	45:09	Show details Prediction details: Peyton Miller Placement Prediction: 23 80% range: 24–34 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +24 s Fehler: 10.6 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 36 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.18 km/h Running and total Run: 16:57 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:47 (3:12 / km) Error: +1:10 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 45:09 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 16:57 (3:26 / km) Total: 45:09 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 3.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 46	Matheus Oliveira Martinhaki BRA	+44 s +9 s	G2 / G1	16:59 17:54	45:11	Show details Prediction details: Matheus Oliveira Martinhaki Placement Prediction: 24 80% range: 17–53 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 46 Deviation: -22 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 9:34 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +9 s Fehler: 35.1 s H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 133 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.63 km/h Running and total Run: 16:59 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:54 (3:38 / km) Error: −0:55 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 45:11 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 16:59 (3:27 / km) Total: 45:11 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 13.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 66	Nicholas Pilgrim BER	+28 s +20 s	G1 / G10	17:06 17:33	45:14	Show details Prediction details: Nicholas Pilgrim Placement Prediction: 25 80% range: 21–42 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 66 Deviation: -41 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:18 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 8.1 s H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 50 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 4.2 s Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 31.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 12.56 km/h Running and total Run: 17:06 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 (3:34 / km) Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 45:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h) Run: 17:06 (3:28 / km) Total: 45:14
26 / 52	Daniel Epp CAN	+60 s +46 s	G3 / G4	15:28 17:22	45:16	Show details Prediction details: Daniel Epp Placement Prediction: 26 80% range: 8–38 Top-10 probability: 13 % Result: 52 Deviation: -26 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +60 s Time: 9:50 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: 13.7 s H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 39.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.88 km/h Running and total Run: 15:28 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:22 (3:31 / km) Error: −1:54 / −0:23 / km Overall prediction: 45:16 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (41.8 km/h) Run: 15:28 (3:08 / km) Total: 45:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 28.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 29	Cole Jamieson USA	+18 s +15 s	G1 / G1 correct	17:17 16:32	45:25	Show details Prediction details: Cole Jamieson Placement Prediction: 27 80% range: 18–50 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 29 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 9:08 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 2.9 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 64 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.11 km/h Running and total Run: 17:17 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:32 (3:21 / km) Error: +0:45 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 45:25 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h) Run: 17:17 (3:30 / km) Total: 45:25
28 / 5	David Nuñez Gomez MEX	+55 s +33 s	G3 / G1	15:39 15:00	45:27	Show details Prediction details: David Nuñez Gomez Placement Prediction: 28 80% range: 13–35 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 5 Deviation: 23 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 9:45 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +33 s Fehler: 22.0 s H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 152 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.7 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h Running and total Run: 15:39 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 152 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:00 (3:03 / km) Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 45:27 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (41.8 km/h) Run: 15:39 (3:10 / km) Total: 45:27 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 24 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 38	Diego Ladera Querales PER	+50 s +23 s	G2 / G1	17:16 17:00	45:28	Show details Prediction details: Diego Ladera Querales Placement Prediction: 29 80% range: 26–51 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 38 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: 9:40 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 26.8 s H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.18 km/h Running and total Run: 17:16 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:00 (3:27 / km) Error: +0:16 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 45:28 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 17:16 (3:30 / km) Total: 45:28 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 18.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 18	Alfredo Miguel Rodríguez Figueroa MEX	+63 s +28 s	G3 / G1	15:45 15:53	45:33	Show details Prediction details: Alfredo Miguel Rodríguez Figueroa Placement Prediction: 30 80% range: 22–40 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 18 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +63 s Time: 9:53 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: 35.4 s H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 184 Duelle, Korrektur -0.91 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.78 km/h Running and total Run: 15:45 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 181 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:53 (3:13 / km) Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 45:33 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (41.8 km/h) Run: 15:45 (3:12 / km) Total: 45:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 32.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 58	Andrés Iván González Vargas MEX	+60 s +35 s	G3 / G7	15:47 18:23	45:35	Show details Prediction details: Andrés Iván González Vargas Placement Prediction: 31 80% range: 16–50 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 58 Deviation: -27 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +60 s Time: 9:50 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 24.5 s H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur -0.91 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 7 (4 people) Speed: 35.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.31 km/h Running and total Run: 15:47 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 (3:44 / km) Error: −2:36 / −0:32 / km Overall prediction: 45:35 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (41.8 km/h) Run: 15:47 (3:12 / km) Total: 45:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 28.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 54	Alejandro Pérez Monterd MEX	+37 s +34 s	G2 / G4	17:30 17:54	45:42	Show details Prediction details: Alejandro Pérez Monterd Placement Prediction: 32 80% range: 31–51 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 54 Deviation: -22 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:27 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 2.8 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 1.14 %, Sicherheit 59 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 36 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 39.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.37 km/h Running and total Run: 17:30 (3:33 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 56 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:54 (3:38 / km) Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 45:42 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 17:30 (3:33 / km) Total: 45:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 5.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 22	César Ortega Cabral MEX	+11 s +23 s	G1 / G1 correct	17:39 16:01	45:47	Show details Prediction details: César Ortega Cabral Placement Prediction: 33 80% range: 31–41 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 22 Deviation: 11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +11 s Time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: -11.6 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 70 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 55 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.4 s Gap behind: 2.5 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.16 km/h Running and total Run: 17:39 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -1.42 %, Sicherheit 18 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:15 / km) Error: +1:38 / +0:20 / km Overall prediction: 45:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h) Run: 17:39 (3:35 / km) Total: 45:47
34 / 14	Alessandro Diego Cortez Delgado MEX	+24 s +4 s	G1 / G2	17:39 15:39	45:47	Show details Prediction details: Alessandro Diego Cortez Delgado Placement Prediction: 34 80% range: 32–41 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 14 Deviation: 20 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +24 s Time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 19.7 s H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 84 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 53 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.3 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 2 (5 people) Speed: 41.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.68 km/h Running and total Run: 17:39 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 84 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:39 (3:10 / km) Error: +2:00 / +0:24 / km Overall prediction: 45:47 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h) Run: 17:39 (3:35 / km) Total: 45:47
35 / 26	Luis Miguel Chávez Sanchez MEX	+63 s +18 s	G3 / G1	16:09 16:38	45:57	Show details Prediction details: Luis Miguel Chávez Sanchez Placement Prediction: 35 80% range: 12–58 Top-10 probability: 9 % Result: 26 Deviation: 9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +63 s Time: 9:53 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: 44.9 s H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 145 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.58 km/h Running and total Run: 16:09 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 10 H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 145 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 (3:22 / km) Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 45:57 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (41.8 km/h) Run: 16:09 (3:17 / km) Total: 45:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 31.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 21	Blaise Uglow CAN	+62 s +22 s	G3 / G1	16:13 16:06	46:01	Show details Prediction details: Blaise Uglow Placement Prediction: 36 80% range: 16–57 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 21 Deviation: 15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +62 s Time: 9:52 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 39.8 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -1.00 %, Sicherheit 83 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.84 km/h Running and total Run: 16:13 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 71 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:06 (3:16 / km) Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 46:01 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (41.8 km/h) Run: 16:13 (3:17 / km) Total: 46:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 30.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 48	Obed Rivas Quiroz MEX	+37 s +35 s	G2 / G1	17:51 18:37	46:03	Show details Prediction details: Obed Rivas Quiroz Placement Prediction: 37 80% range: 36–45 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 48 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:27 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 1.6 s H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 1.24 %, Sicherheit 44 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 30 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.48 km/h Running and total Run: 17:51 (3:37 / km) Historical basis: 3:39 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 40 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:37 (3:47 / km) Error: −0:46 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 46:03 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 17:51 (3:37 / km) Total: 46:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 5.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 35	Jake Adler USA	+40 s +39 s	G2 / G1	17:56 17:03	46:08	Show details Prediction details: Jake Adler Placement Prediction: 38 80% range: 25–57 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 35 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 9:30 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 0.6 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 29 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.00 km/h Running and total Run: 17:56 (3:38 / km) Historical basis: 3:39 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:03 (3:28 / km) Error: +0:53 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: 46:08 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 17:56 (3:38 / km) Total: 46:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 8.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 47	Evan Mahrous USA	+26 s +25 s	G1 / G1 correct	18:09 18:22	46:17	Show details Prediction details: Evan Mahrous Placement Prediction: 39 80% range: 40–46 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 47 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 9:16 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: 1.4 s H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 51 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.94 km/h Running and total Run: 18:09 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:22 (3:44 / km) Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 46:17 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h) Run: 18:09 (3:41 / km) Total: 46:17
40 / 40	José Luis Zazueta Lizárraga MEX	+55 s +23 s	G3 / G1	16:35 17:06	46:23	Show details Prediction details: José Luis Zazueta Lizárraga Placement Prediction: 40 80% range: 12–53 Top-10 probability: 8 % Result: 40 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 9:45 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 32.0 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur -0.81 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.53 km/h Running and total Run: 16:35 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:06 (3:28 / km) Error: −0:31 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 46:23 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (41.8 km/h) Run: 16:35 (3:22 / km) Total: 46:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 24 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 44	Esteban Tibocha COL	+43 s +21 s	G2 / G1	18:12 17:33	46:24	Show details Prediction details: Esteban Tibocha Placement Prediction: 41 80% range: 37–59 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 44 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 9:33 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 22.3 s H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 29 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.6 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.31 km/h Running and total Run: 18:12 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 (3:34 / km) Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 46:24 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 18:12 (3:41 / km) Total: 46:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 12.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 25	Edgar Martinez Hidalgo MEX	+46 s +38 s	G2 / G1	18:21 16:18	46:33	Show details Prediction details: Edgar Martinez Hidalgo Placement Prediction: 42 80% range: 45–58 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 25 Deviation: 17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 9:36 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +38 s Fehler: 7.9 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.08 km/h Running and total Run: 18:21 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:44 / km Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 97 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:18 (3:18 / km) Error: +2:03 / +0:25 / km Overall prediction: 46:33 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 18:21 (3:43 / km) Total: 46:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 14.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 34	Raziel Geovanni Muñoz Tun MEX	+58 s +34 s	G3 / G2	16:51 16:49	46:39	Show details Prediction details: Raziel Geovanni Muñoz Tun Placement Prediction: 43 80% range: 17–58 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 34 Deviation: 9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +58 s Time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 23.7 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 2 (5 people) Speed: 42.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.91 km/h Running and total Run: 16:51 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:49 (3:25 / km) Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 46:39 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (41.8 km/h) Run: 16:51 (3:25 / km) Total: 46:39 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 26.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 63	Mauro Quesada Zúñiga CRC	+50 s +72 s	G2 / G8	18:27 18:35	46:39	Show details Prediction details: Mauro Quesada Zúñiga Placement Prediction: 44 80% range: 46–63 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 63 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: 9:40 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +72 s Fehler: -22.2 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.2 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 8 (2 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.22 km/h Running and total Run: 18:27 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.85 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:35 (3:46 / km) Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 46:39 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 18:27 (3:44 / km) Total: 46:39 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 18.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 24	Tzuriel David Gómez Ortíz MEX	+65 s +40 s	G3 / G2	17:00 16:16	46:48	Show details Prediction details: Tzuriel David Gómez Ortíz Placement Prediction: 45 80% range: 41–57 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 24 Deviation: 21 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +65 s Time: 9:55 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: 25.1 s H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 1.34 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 4.1 s Result: Group 2 (5 people) Speed: 42.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.84 km/h Running and total Run: 17:00 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:16 (3:18 / km) Error: +0:44 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 46:48 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (41.8 km/h) Run: 17:00 (3:27 / km) Total: 46:48 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 34.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 60	Raul Emiliano Diaz Rodriguez MEX	+59 s +43 s	G3 / G8	17:14 18:07	47:02	Show details Prediction details: Raul Emiliano Diaz Rodriguez Placement Prediction: 46 80% range: 29–60 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 60 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +59 s Time: 9:49 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: 15.9 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 8 (2 people) Speed: 34.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.86 km/h Running and total Run: 17:14 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 114 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:07 (3:40 / km) Error: −0:53 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 47:02 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (41.8 km/h) Run: 17:14 (3:30 / km) Total: 47:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 27.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 32	Brian Omar Orozco MEX	+27 s +12 s	G1 / G1 correct	18:54 16:54	47:02	Show details Prediction details: Brian Omar Orozco Placement Prediction: 47 80% range: 46–57 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 32 Deviation: 15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 14.9 s H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 128 Duelle, Korrektur 0.88 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 43 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.29 km/h Running and total Run: 18:54 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:54 (3:26 / km) Error: +2:00 / +0:24 / km Overall prediction: 47:02 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h) Run: 18:54 (3:50 / km) Total: 47:02
48 / 45	Petar Bozhilov BUL	+14 s +13 s	G1 / G5	18:58 14:47	47:06	Show details Prediction details: Petar Bozhilov Placement Prediction: 48 80% range: 48–56 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 45 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:04 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 0.9 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 54 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.5 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 38.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.89 km/h Running and total Run: 18:58 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:52 / km Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 98 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:47 (3:00 / km) Error: +4:11 / +0:51 / km Overall prediction: 47:06 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h) Run: 18:58 (3:51 / km) Total: 47:06
49 / 39	David Sanchez Cabral MEX	+46 s +20 s	G2 / G1	18:55 17:16	47:07	Show details Prediction details: David Sanchez Cabral Placement Prediction: 49 80% range: 49–63 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 39 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 9:36 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 25.5 s H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.38 km/h Running and total Run: 18:55 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:16 (3:30 / km) Error: +1:39 / +0:20 / km Overall prediction: 47:07 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 18:55 (3:50 / km) Total: 47:07 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 14.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 42	Alberto Reyes Morales MEX	+58 s +36 s	G3 / G1	17:20 17:26	47:08	Show details Prediction details: Alberto Reyes Morales Placement Prediction: 50 80% range: 40–54 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 42 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +58 s Time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +36 s Fehler: 21.7 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.6 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.06 km/h Running and total Run: 17:20 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 (3:32 / km) Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 47:08 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (41.8 km/h) Run: 17:20 (3:31 / km) Total: 47:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 26.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 65	Juan Santiago Zuleta Ceja MEX	+63 s +40 s	G3 / G6	17:22 20:39	47:10	Show details Prediction details: Juan Santiago Zuleta Ceja Placement Prediction: 51 80% range: 41–57 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 65 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +63 s Time: 9:53 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: 22.5 s H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.39 km/h Running and total Run: 17:22 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:39 (4:11 / km) Error: −3:17 / −0:40 / km Overall prediction: 47:10 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (41.8 km/h) Run: 17:22 (3:31 / km) Total: 47:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 31.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 68	Jael Juárez Moron MEX	+59 s +37 s	G3 / G11	17:59 17:39	47:47	Show details Prediction details: Jael Juárez Moron Placement Prediction: 52 80% range: 40–62 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 68 Deviation: -16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +59 s Time: 9:49 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: 21.9 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 11 (1 people) Speed: 26.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 15.13 km/h Running and total Run: 17:59 (3:39 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:39 (3:35 / km) Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 47:47 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (41.8 km/h) Run: 17:59 (3:39 / km) Total: 47:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 27.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 / 27	Diego Humberto Suarez Arias MEX	+63 s +42 s	G3 / G1	18:14 16:24	48:02	Show details Prediction details: Diego Humberto Suarez Arias Placement Prediction: 53 80% range: 49–64 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 27 Deviation: 26 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +63 s Time: 9:53 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: 21.0 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.96 km/h Running and total Run: 18:14 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:24 (3:20 / km) Error: +1:50 / +0:22 / km Overall prediction: 48:02 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (41.8 km/h) Run: 18:14 (3:42 / km) Total: 48:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 32 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 / 56	Josiah Wilkinson CAN	+65 s +24 s	G3 / G1	18:14 20:05	48:02	Show details Prediction details: Josiah Wilkinson Placement Prediction: 54 80% range: 51–63 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 56 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +65 s Time: 9:55 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +24 s Fehler: 40.9 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.99 km/h Running and total Run: 18:14 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 20:05 (4:04 / km) Error: −1:51 / −0:22 / km Overall prediction: 48:02 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (41.8 km/h) Run: 18:14 (3:42 / km) Total: 48:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 33.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
55 / 64	Nathan F. Cohen USA	+69 s +44 s	G4 / G4 correct	17:20 23:20	48:12	Show details Prediction details: Nathan F. Cohen Placement Prediction: 55 80% range: 43–62 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 64 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +69 s Time: 9:59 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +44 s Fehler: 25.2 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.1 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 40.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.48 km/h Running and total Run: 17:20 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 10 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:20 (4:44 / km) Error: −6:00 / −1:13 / km Overall prediction: 48:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:39 (40.5 km/h) Run: 17:20 (3:31 / km) Total: 48:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 38.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
56 / 51	Emiliano Saldaña Mercado MEX	+71 s +22 s	G4 / G3	17:22 18:22	48:14	Show details Prediction details: Emiliano Saldaña Mercado Placement Prediction: 56 80% range: 30–65 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 51 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +71 s Time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 49.3 s H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 1.6 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 40.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h Running and total Run: 17:22 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:22 (3:44 / km) Error: −1:00 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 48:14 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:39 (40.5 km/h) Run: 17:22 (3:31 / km) Total: 48:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 40.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
57 / 41	João Vitor Mazorca BRA	+56 s +20 s	G3 / G1	18:51 17:19	48:39	Show details Prediction details: João Vitor Mazorca Placement Prediction: 57 80% range: 53–65 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 41 Deviation: 16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +56 s Time: 9:46 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 36.1 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 1.6 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.99 km/h Running and total Run: 18:51 (3:49 / km) Historical basis: 3:49 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 82 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:19 (3:31 / km) Error: +1:32 / +0:19 / km Overall prediction: 48:39 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (41.8 km/h) Run: 18:51 (3:49 / km) Total: 48:39 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 25.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
58 / 37	José Antonio Ruelas Cantú MEX	+73 s +21 s	G4 / G1	17:58 16:51	48:50	Show details Prediction details: José Antonio Ruelas Cantú Placement Prediction: 58 80% range: 50–65 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 37 Deviation: 21 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +73 s Time: 10:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 51.9 s H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -1.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.6 s Gap behind: 6.2 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.80 km/h Running and total Run: 17:58 (3:39 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:51 (3:25 / km) Error: +1:07 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 48:50 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:39 (40.5 km/h) Run: 17:58 (3:39 / km) Total: 48:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 41.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
59 / 20	Jack Screen CAN	+79 s +36 s	G5 / G1	16:45 15:55	48:58	Show details Prediction details: Jack Screen Placement Prediction: 59 80% range: 39–64 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: 39 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +79 s Time: 10:09 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +36 s Fehler: 43.1 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.2 s Gap behind: 9.9 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.90 km/h Running and total Run: 16:45 (3:24 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur 0.97 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:55 (3:14 / km) Error: +0:50 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 48:58 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:54 (38.8 km/h) Run: 16:45 (3:24 / km) Total: 48:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 48.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
60 / 4	Gabriel Lecheta BRA	+90 s +44 s	G6 / G1	15:40 15:07	49:10	Show details Prediction details: Gabriel Lecheta Placement Prediction: 60 80% range: 28–61 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 4 Deviation: 56 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +90 s Time: 10:20 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +44 s Fehler: 46.3 s H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 2.5 s Result: Group 1 (45 people) Speed: 42.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.18 km/h Running and total Run: 15:40 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:07 (3:04 / km) Error: +0:33 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 49:10 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:20 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:08 (38.8 km/h) Run: 15:40 (3:11 / km) Total: 49:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 59.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
61 / 55	Griff Morgan USA	+38 s +18 s	G2 / G2 correct	21:04 20:08	49:16	Show details Prediction details: Griff Morgan Placement Prediction: 61 80% range: 62–65 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 55 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: 19.6 s H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 33 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 2 (5 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.56 km/h Running and total Run: 21:04 (4:16 / km) Historical basis: 4:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -1.37 %, Sicherheit 82 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:08 (4:05 / km) Error: +0:56 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: 49:16 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:21 (43.9 km/h) Run: 21:04 (4:16 / km) Total: 49:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 6.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
62 / 59	Emmanuel Borges Vargas MEX	+93 s +69 s	G6 / G7	18:31 18:36	52:01	Show details Prediction details: Emmanuel Borges Vargas Placement Prediction: 62 80% range: 64–66 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 59 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +93 s Time: 10:23 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +69 s Fehler: 23.8 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.24 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.5 s Gap behind: 48.7 s Result: Group 7 (4 people) Speed: 36.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.56 km/h Running and total Run: 18:31 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:36 (3:46 / km) Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 52:01 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:08 (38.8 km/h) Run: 18:31 (3:45 / km) Total: 52:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 61.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
63 / 61	Cheng-Hsi Tai TPE	+142 s +139 s	G6 / G7	21:15 18:52	54:45	Show details Prediction details: Cheng-Hsi Tai Placement Prediction: 63 80% range: 67–67 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 61 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +142 s Time: 11:12 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +139 s Fehler: 2.5 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -1.19 %, Sicherheit 94 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 48.7 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (4 people) Speed: 37.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.10 km/h Running and total Run: 21:15 (4:19 / km) Historical basis: 4:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 94 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:52 (3:50 / km) Error: +2:23 / +0:29 / km Overall prediction: 54:45 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:12 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:08 (38.8 km/h) Run: 21:15 (4:19 / km) Total: 54:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 110.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 43	Nicolás Mariona González MEX	+1 s +22 s	G1 / G2	17:23		Show details Prediction details: Nicolás Mariona González Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 43 Deviation: -43 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +1 s Time: 8:51 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: -21.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 89 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 10.4 s Result: Group 2 (5 people) Speed: 42.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.01 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:23 (3:32 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 50	Rodrigo Benjamín Moreno Carballo MEX	+20 s +37 s	G1 / G4	17:02		Show details Prediction details: Rodrigo Benjamín Moreno Carballo Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 50 Deviation: -50 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 9:10 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: -17.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 54 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 39.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.13 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:02 (3:27 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 57	César Luis Bobadilla Arizmendi MEX	+62 s +37 s	G3 / G5	18:09		Show details Prediction details: César Luis Bobadilla Arizmendi Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 57 Deviation: -57 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +62 s Time: 9:52 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: 25.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (17 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 38.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.06 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:09 (3:41 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:43 (41.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 31 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 62	Diego Fraire Bastida MEX	+89 s +105 s	G6 / G7	19:11		Show details Prediction details: Diego Fraire Bastida Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 62 Deviation: -62 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +89 s Time: 10:19 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +105 s Fehler: -16.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 9.9 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 7 (4 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.78 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:11 (3:53 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:08 (38.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 58 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 67	Germán Leonardo Garcia Ramos MEX	+0 s +118 s	G0 / G9	21:15		Show details Prediction details: Germán Leonardo Garcia Ramos Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 68–68 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 67 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 8:50 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +118 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 34.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:15 (4:19 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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