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Elite Men

12.07.2026 Magog CAN
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Americas Triathlon Cup Magog

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 89/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 35 früheren Rennen und 809 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 47.7 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 05.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 84.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 94.2 % · 35 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error8.3
Mean swim error13.8 s
Mean bike-speed error3.89 km/h
Correct bike groups6/50
No history2
Within the 80% range53.8 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Theo Marti
LUX
+24 s
+13 s
G2 / G1
 15:20
15:12
 42:53
Show details
Prediction details: Theo Marti

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 10.6 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:20 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:12 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 42:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:20 (3:04 / km)
Total: 42:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 8.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2 Tomer Shapira
ISR
+18 s
+31 s
G2 / G1
 15:24
14:54
 42:57
Show details
Prediction details: Tomer Shapira

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–13
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -13.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:24 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:54 (2:59 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 42:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:24 (3:05 / km)
Total: 42:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 2.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 15 Angel Yael Yépez Meza
MEX
+39 s
+32 s
G2 / G1
 15:26
15:46
 42:59
Show details
Prediction details: Angel Yael Yépez Meza

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–24
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 7.4 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 42:59
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km)
Total: 42:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 24 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 6 Robi Racine
CAN
+29 s
+13 s
G2 / G1
 15:27
15:30
 43:00
Show details
Prediction details: Robi Racine

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–19
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 15.6 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:00
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 13.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 7 Rodrigo Gonzalez Lopez
MEX
+32 s
+36 s
G2 / G1
 15:29
15:23
 43:02
Show details
Prediction details: Rodrigo Gonzalez Lopez

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–25
Top-10 probability: 50 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -4.0 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
6 / 16 Lukas Vadeika
CAN
+23 s
+31 s
G2 / G1
 15:32
15:55
 43:05
Show details
Prediction details: Lukas Vadeika

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–14
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -7.6 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:05
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 11 Foster Wilfong
USA
+32 s
+39 s
G2 / G1
 15:50
15:31
 43:23
Show details
Prediction details: Foster Wilfong

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–15
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -7.3 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:50 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:23
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:50 (3:10 / km)
Total: 43:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 16.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 12 Antoine L'hôte
SUI
+26 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 15:55
15:48
 43:28
Show details
Prediction details: Antoine L'hôte

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 2–22
Top-10 probability: 51 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 16.3 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Total: 43:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 10.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 4 Nicolas Harvey
CAN
+20 s
+6 s
G2 / G1
 15:59
15:18
 43:32
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolas Harvey

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 3–19
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 14.4 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 43:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Total: 43:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 0.099999999999998 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 42 Peyton Miller
USA
+24 s
+16 s
G2 / G1
 15:59
19:52
 43:32
Show details
Prediction details: Peyton Miller

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 8–18
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -32

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 8.0 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:52 (3:58 / km)
Error: −3:53 / −0:47 / km
Overall prediction: 43:32
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Total: 43:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 8.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 17 Hayden Woodrow
CAN
+11 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:06
15:49
 43:32
Show details
Prediction details: Hayden Woodrow

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 5–17
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 9:22
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 11.1 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:13 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Total: 43:32
12 / 47 Arturo Mateos Aviles
MEX
+36 s
+69 s
G2 / G7
 16:00
16:39
 43:33
Show details
Prediction details: Arturo Mateos Aviles

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 6–19
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -35

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +69 s
Fehler: -33.1 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:00 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 43:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 16:00 (3:12 / km)
Total: 43:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 20.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 10 Henry Bristol
CAN
+34 s
+27 s
G2 / G1
 16:11
15:42
 43:44
Show details
Prediction details: Henry Bristol

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 2–29
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 6.8 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 138 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:42 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Total: 43:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 18.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 5 Tristen Jones
CAN
+29 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 16:12
15:16
 43:45
Show details
Prediction details: Tristen Jones

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 8–21
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 13.9 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:12 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:16 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:56 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 43:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 16:12 (3:14 / km)
Total: 43:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 13.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 9 Cole Jamieson 
USA
+13 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:24
15:39
 43:50
Show details
Prediction details: Cole Jamieson 

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 3–21
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 5.5 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 5.5 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 43:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:13 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km)
Total: 43:50
16 / 25 Kanta Ando
JPN
+32 s
+27 s
G2 / G1
 16:23
16:41
 43:56
Show details
Prediction details: Kanta Ando

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 14–22
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 5.1 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Total: 43:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 16.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 8 Alexandre Leblanc
CAN
+38 s
+45 s
G2 / G1
 16:33
15:19
 44:06
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandre Leblanc

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 12–24
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -7.2 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:19 (3:04 / km)
Error: +1:14 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 44:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Total: 44:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 22.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 33 Chris Gregor
CAN
+18 s
+26 s
G2 / G1
 16:56
18:23
 44:29
Show details
Prediction details: Chris Gregor

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 5–30
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -7.9 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Error: −1:27 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 44:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Total: 44:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 2.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 26 Adoh Doherty
LBN
+33 s
+36 s
G2 / G1
 17:02
16:43
 44:35
Show details
Prediction details: Adoh Doherty

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 10–34
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -3.5 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:43 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 44:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Total: 44:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 17.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 24 Miguel Alvarez
CAN
+39 s
+40 s
G2 / G1
 17:02
16:30
 44:35
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Alvarez

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 21–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -1.3 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:30 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 44:35
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Total: 44:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 23.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 20 Jake Adler
USA
+33 s
+22 s
G2 / G1
 17:13
16:01
 44:46
Show details
Prediction details: Jake Adler

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 15–32
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 11.3 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Error: +1:12 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 44:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Total: 44:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 17.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 21 José Luis Zazueta Lizárraga
MEX
+32 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 17:19
16:12
 44:52
Show details
Prediction details: José Luis Zazueta Lizárraga

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 21–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 21.8 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:12 (3:14 / km)
Error: +1:07 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 44:52
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Total: 44:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 16.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 28 Esteban Tibocha
COL
+39 s
+29 s
G2 / G1
 17:27
17:12
 45:00
Show details
Prediction details: Esteban Tibocha

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 17–38
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 9.8 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 45:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Total: 45:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 23.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 13 Jack Spence
RSA
+52 s
+41 s
G3 / G1
 15:21
15:38
 45:02
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Spence

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 6–28
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 10.7 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.81 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:38 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 45:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Total: 45:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 36.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 27 Leo Savoie
CAN
+34 s
+11 s
G2 / G1
 17:41
17:17
 45:14
Show details
Prediction details: Leo Savoie

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 25–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 22.7 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:17 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 45:14
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Total: 45:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 18.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 1 Zach Leachman
USA
+67 s
+26 s
G4 / G1
 14:40
14:47
 45:17
Show details
Prediction details: Zach Leachman

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 9–30
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 41.2 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 8.9 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 74 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:47 (2:57 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 45:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:30 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Total: 45:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 51.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 18 Daniel Epp
CAN
+49 s
+42 s
G3 / G1
 16:06
15:51
 45:47
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Epp

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 11–33
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 6.6 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 45:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Total: 45:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 33.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 19 Blaise Uglow
CAN
+45 s
+41 s
G3 / G1
 16:09
15:52
 45:50
Show details
Prediction details: Blaise Uglow

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 13–26
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 45:50
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Total: 45:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 29.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 23 Josiah Wilkinson
CAN
+39 s
+31 s
G2 / G1
 18:19
16:24
 45:52
Show details
Prediction details: Josiah Wilkinson

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 27–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 7.7 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:24 (3:17 / km)
Error: +1:55 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 45:52
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Total: 45:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 23.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 34 Oleksii Kolesov
CAN
+31 s
+6 s
G2 / G1
 18:21
18:17
 45:54
Show details
Prediction details: Oleksii Kolesov

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 30–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 24.8 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:17 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 45:54
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Total: 45:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 15.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 40 Evan Mahrous
USA
+28 s
+13 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:25
17:55
 45:58
Show details
Prediction details: Evan Mahrous

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 29–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 14.6 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 45:58
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Total: 45:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 12.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 48 Ryan Buzby
USA
+60 s
+75 s
G3 / G8
 16:33
16:01
 46:14
Show details
Prediction details: Ryan Buzby

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 29–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +75 s
Fehler: -15.3 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 46:14
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Total: 46:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 44.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 14 Ryoya Tamazaki
JPN
+43 s
+24 s
G3 / G1
 16:35
15:40
 46:16
Show details
Prediction details: Ryoya Tamazaki

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 13–36
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 19.4 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:55 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 46:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Total: 46:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 28 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 22 Louis Marchand
CAN
+32 s
+29 s
G2 / G1
 19:03
16:18
 46:36
Show details
Prediction details: Louis Marchand

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 27–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 2.8 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Error: +2:45 / +0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 46:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Total: 46:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 16.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 38 Jack Screen
CAN
+50 s
+42 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:00
16:51
 46:41
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Screen

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 18–40
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 8.0 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur 0.90 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 46:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Total: 46:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 34.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 30 Cezar Hirsescu
CAN
+39 s
+33 s
G2 / G1
 19:32
17:36
 47:05
Show details
Prediction details: Cezar Hirsescu

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 36–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 5.7 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:32 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Error: +1:56 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 47:05
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:54 (44.6 km/h)
Run: 19:32 (3:54 / km)
Total: 47:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 23.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 31 Judson Schulz
USA
+92 s
+69 s
G6 / G2
 16:25
16:02
 47:21
Show details
Prediction details: Judson Schulz

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 34–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +92 s
Time: 10:43
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +69 s
Fehler: 23.0 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.6 s
Gap behind: 63.7 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:25 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 47:21
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:43 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:24 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 16:25 (3:17 / km)
Total: 47:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 76.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 32 Oliver Hayward
BER
+54 s
+35 s
G3 / G1
 17:43
18:00
 47:24
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Hayward

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 26–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 19.2 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:24
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Total: 47:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 38.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 41 William McElgunn
USA
+79 s
+69 s
G5 / G4
 17:33
16:42
 48:19
Show details
Prediction details: William McElgunn

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 34–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +79 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +69 s
Fehler: 9.9 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 6.0 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Error: +0:51 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 48:19
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Total: 48:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 63.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 35 Jackson Foster
USA
+51 s
+33 s
G3 / G1
 18:52
18:28
 48:33
Show details
Prediction details: Jackson Foster

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 35–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 17.7 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:28 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 48:33
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Total: 48:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 35.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 46 Ethan Johnson-Skinner
CAN
+65 s
+74 s
G4 / G4
correct 		17:58
18:01
 48:35
Show details
Prediction details: Ethan Johnson-Skinner

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 38–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: -8.6 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 48:35
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:30 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Total: 48:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 50 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 37 Isaac Green
USA
+85 s
+74 s
G5 / G4
 17:59
15:51
 48:45
Show details
Prediction details: Isaac Green

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 42–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +85 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: 10.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 76 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -1.19 %, Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Error: +2:08 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 48:45
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Total: 48:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 69.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 43 Samuel Zuluaga Cardona
COL
+58 s
+54 s
G3 / G2
 19:05
18:30
 48:46
Show details
Prediction details: Samuel Zuluaga Cardona

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 37–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 43
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: 3.7 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:05 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:30 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 48:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 19:05 (3:49 / km)
Total: 48:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 42.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 50 Marcus Nguyen
CAN
+85 s
+40 s
G5 / G3
 18:07
20:28
 48:53
Show details
Prediction details: Marcus Nguyen

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 39–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +85 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 45.4 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 6.6 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:28 (4:06 / km)
Error: −2:21 / −0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 48:53
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Total: 48:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 70 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 45 Owen Schessler
USA
+58 s
+44 s
G3 / G6
 19:17
16:26
 48:58
Show details
Prediction details: Owen Schessler

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 42–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 14.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Error: +2:51 / +0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 48:58
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Total: 48:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 42.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 49 Brandon Szuch
USA
+64 s
+71 s
G4 / G4
correct 		20:29
19:31
 51:06
Show details
Prediction details: Brandon Szuch

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 47–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 49
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: -7.3 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:29 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:31 (3:54 / km)
Error: +0:58 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 51:06
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:30 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 20:29 (4:06 / km)
Total: 51:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 48.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 29 Zakary Louis-Seize
CAN
+76 s
+44 s
G5 / G1
 20:41
17:27
 51:27
Show details
Prediction details: Zakary Louis-Seize

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 48–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 32.1 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.9 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 1 (35 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:41 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -1.70 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Error: +3:14 / +0:39 / km
Overall prediction: 51:27
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 20:41 (4:08 / km)
Total: 51:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 60.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 51 Leo Havens
USA
+57 s
+71 s
G3 / G7
 22:01
19:00
 51:42
Show details
Prediction details: Leo Havens

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 47–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 51
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: -14.4 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 76 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:01 (4:24 / km)
Historical basis: 4:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -1.19 %, Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:00 (3:48 / km)
Error: +3:01 / +0:36 / km
Overall prediction: 51:42
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 22:01 (4:24 / km)
Total: 51:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 41.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 52 Kaitao Han
CAN
+156 s
+103 s
G7 / G9
 23:47
20:34
 1:01:13
Show details
Prediction details: Kaitao Han

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 50–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 52
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +156 s
Time: 11:47
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +103 s
Fehler: 52.7 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 63.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 31.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:47 (4:45 / km)
Historical basis: 4:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:34 (4:07 / km)
Error: +3:13 / +0:39 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:13
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:47 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:50 (34.4 km/h)
Run: 23:47 (4:45 / km)
Total: 1:01:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 140.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 36 Thomas Doran
USA
+0 s
+14 s
G0 / G3
16:34
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Doran

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 51–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 39 Vincent Fortin
CAN
+55 s
+61 s
G3 / G2
17:29
Show details
Prediction details: Vincent Fortin

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -39

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -5.6 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:29 (3:30 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 40 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 44 Ty Garrett
USA
+0 s
+102 s
G0 / G6
16:04
Show details
Prediction details: Ty Garrett

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 52–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 44
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +102 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.