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Elite Women

12.07.2026 Magog CAN
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Americas Triathlon Cup Magog

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 81/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 26 früheren Rennen und 463 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 49.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 11.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 83.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 92.9 % · 26 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.2
Mean swim error12.3 s
Mean bike-speed error5.19 km/h
Correct bike groups14/40
No history2
Within the 80% range64.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 5 Brooke Rousselle
CAN
+31 s
+38 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:11
17:10
 47:21
Show details
Prediction details: Brooke Rousselle

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 10:21
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -6.9 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 47:21
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:21 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Total: 47:21
2 / 8 Rachel Werking
USA
+10 s
+34 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:13
17:20
 47:23
Show details
Prediction details: Rachel Werking

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -23.9 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 7.7 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 47:23
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Total: 47:23
3 / 3 Annie Fuller
USA
+26 s
+31 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:38
16:52
 47:48
Show details
Prediction details: Annie Fuller

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–12
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -4.9 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 47:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km)
Total: 47:48
4 / 7 Ainsley Thorpe
NZL
+7 s
+35 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:57
17:20
 48:07
Show details
Prediction details: Ainsley Thorpe

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -28.5 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.17 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 48:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Total: 48:07
5 / 9 Michelle Magnani
USA
+25 s
+38 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:59
17:52
 48:09
Show details
Prediction details: Michelle Magnani

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -12.8 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 48:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Total: 48:09
6 / 4 Joy Gill
USA
+40 s
+43 s
G2 / G1
 17:18
16:54
 48:10
Show details
Prediction details: Joy Gill

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 2–14
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -3.2 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 48:10
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:51 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Total: 48:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 2.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 6 Maïra Carreau
CAN
+27 s
+35 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:10
17:23
 48:20
Show details
Prediction details: Maïra Carreau

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–13
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -7.9 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:47 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 48:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Total: 48:20
8 / 2 Béatrice Filion
CAN
+47 s
+39 s
G2 / G1
 17:30
16:55
 48:22
Show details
Prediction details: Béatrice Filion

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 3–13
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 8.3 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:55 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 48:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:51 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Total: 48:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 9.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 12 Lulu Johnson
NZL
+26 s
+36 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:30
18:07
 48:40
Show details
Prediction details: Lulu Johnson

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 9–16
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -10.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:30 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.83 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 48:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 18:30 (3:42 / km)
Total: 48:40
10 / 13 Ellison Wolfe
USA
+44 s
+42 s
G2 / G1
 17:49
18:05
 48:41
Show details
Prediction details: Ellison Wolfe

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–14
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:34
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 2.3 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:49 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:51 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:49 (3:34 / km)
Total: 48:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 6.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 11 Colette Reimer
CAN
+43 s
+40 s
G2 / G1
 17:52
18:02
 48:44
Show details
Prediction details: Colette Reimer

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 6–13
Top-10 probability: 51 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 3.3 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:51 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Total: 48:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 5.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 1 Faith Duncan
USA
+59 s
+58 s
G2 / G1
 18:02
16:35
 48:54
Show details
Prediction details: Faith Duncan

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 6–24
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 10:49
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 1.1 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Error: +1:27 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 48:54
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:49 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:51 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Total: 48:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 21.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 17 Alexandra Poole
USA
+34 s
+44 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:48
18:54
 48:58
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandra Poole

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 9–18
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:24
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -10.2 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 6.0 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 48:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Total: 48:58
14 / 19 Mia Wentzy
USA
+27 s
+36 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:06
20:11
 49:16
Show details
Prediction details: Mia Wentzy

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–20
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -8.6 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:06 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:11 (4:02 / km)
Error: −1:05 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 49:16
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 19:06 (3:49 / km)
Total: 49:16
15 / 15 Liberty Ricca
USA
+19 s
+24 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:17
18:48
 49:27
Show details
Prediction details: Liberty Ricca

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 6–24
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -5.3 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 49:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Total: 49:27
16 / 16 Ruth Pardy
USA
+32 s
+39 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:25
18:58
 49:35
Show details
Prediction details: Ruth Pardy

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 7–25
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -7.0 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:25 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:58 (3:48 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 49:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:22 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 19:25 (3:53 / km)
Total: 49:35
17 / 14 Amara Rae
NZL
+61 s
+57 s
G2 / G1
 18:45
18:26
 49:37
Show details
Prediction details: Amara Rae

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 15–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 10:51
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 3.7 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:51 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:51 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Total: 49:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 23 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 18 Saoirse O'Brien
IRL
+53 s
+57 s
G2 / G1
 18:49
18:57
 49:41
Show details
Prediction details: Saoirse O'Brien

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 13–22
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:43
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -3.9 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -1.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 49:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:43 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:51 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Total: 49:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 15.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 21 Samantha Wood
CAN
+41 s
+56 s
G2 / G3
 19:11
19:01
 50:03
Show details
Prediction details: Samantha Wood

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 14–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: -14.9 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:11 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:01 (3:48 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 50:03
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:51 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 19:11 (3:50 / km)
Total: 50:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 3.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 28 Cara Macdonald
CAN
+22 s
+58 s
G1 / G4
 19:54
19:31
 50:04
Show details
Prediction details: Cara Macdonald

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 14–23
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: -36.4 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:54 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:31 (3:54 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 50:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 19:54 (3:59 / km)
Total: 50:04
21 / 27 Micah Gay
CAN
+57 s
+84 s
G2 / G5
 19:16
17:40
 50:08
Show details
Prediction details: Micah Gay

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 14–36
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:47
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +84 s
Fehler: -27.0 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur -1.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Error: +1:36 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 50:08
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:47 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:51 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Total: 50:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 19.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 23 Mackenzie McConagha
USA
+4 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 20:11
20:21
 50:21
Show details
Prediction details: Mackenzie McConagha

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 18–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 85 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:11 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:21 (4:04 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 50:21
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 20:11 (4:02 / km)
Total: 50:21
23 / 25 Rose-Emanuelle Binette
CAN
+51 s
+66 s
G2 / G4
 19:40
18:55
 50:32
Show details
Prediction details: Rose-Emanuelle Binette

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 19–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: -14.9 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:55 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 50:32
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:51 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Total: 50:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 13.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 31 Juliette Chenail-Lafond
CAN
+26 s
+46 s
G1 / G3
 21:12
21:21
 51:22
Show details
Prediction details: Juliette Chenail-Lafond

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 24–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -19.9 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:12 (4:14 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:21 (4:16 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 51:22
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 21:12 (4:14 / km)
Total: 51:22
25 / 42 Maya Reilly
USA
+53 s
+64 s
G2 / G8
 20:32
20:02
 51:24
Show details
Prediction details: Maya Reilly

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 23–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:43
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: -10.8 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 27.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 12.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:32 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:02 (4:00 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 51:24
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:43 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:51 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 20:32 (4:06 / km)
Total: 51:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 15.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 20 Jamie Harker
CAN
+19 s
+37 s
G1 / G1
correct 		21:14
20:47
 51:24
Show details
Prediction details: Jamie Harker

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 25–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -18.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:14 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:47 (4:09 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 51:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 21:14 (4:15 / km)
Total: 51:24
27 / 30 Heidi Henry
CAN
+56 s
+60 s
G2 / G3
 20:37
20:53
 51:29
Show details
Prediction details: Heidi Henry

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 23–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 10:46
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -4.5 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:37 (4:07 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:53 (4:11 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 51:29
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:51 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 20:37 (4:07 / km)
Total: 51:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 17.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 22 Kahlen Anderson
CAN
+49 s
+42 s
G2 / G1
 20:47
21:21
 51:39
Show details
Prediction details: Kahlen Anderson

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 24–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:39
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 6.5 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:47 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:21 (4:16 / km)
Error: −0:34 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 51:39
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:39 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:51 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 20:47 (4:09 / km)
Total: 51:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 10.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 24 Maëlly Lamontagne
CAN
+94 s
+76 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:53
18:58
 52:06
Show details
Prediction details: Maëlly Lamontagne

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 26–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +94 s
Time: 11:24
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: 18.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.23 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.0 s
Gap behind: 7.7 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:58 (3:48 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 52:06
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:24 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (37.9 km/h)
Run: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Total: 52:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 56.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 34 Ella Spitz
USA
+56 s
+77 s
G2 / G4
 21:21
21:04
 52:13
Show details
Prediction details: Ella Spitz

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 25–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 10:46
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: -20.9 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:21 (4:16 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:04 (4:13 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 52:13
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:51 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 21:21 (4:16 / km)
Total: 52:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 18.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 35 Andie Psilopoulos
USA
+18 s
+40 s
G1 / G3
 22:08
22:10
 52:18
Show details
Prediction details: Andie Psilopoulos

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 25–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -22.2 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.7 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:08 (4:26 / km)
Historical basis: 4:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:10 (4:26 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 52:18
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 22:08 (4:26 / km)
Total: 52:18
32 / 36 Lucy Evans
NZL
+41 s
+76 s
G2 / G4
 21:27
21:37
 52:19
Show details
Prediction details: Lucy Evans

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 28–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: -35.3 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:27 (4:17 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:37 (4:19 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 52:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:51 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 21:27 (4:17 / km)
Total: 52:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 29 Kasey Madsen
USA
+62 s
+75 s
G3 / G4
 20:55
19:56
 52:24
Show details
Prediction details: Kasey Madsen

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 28–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 10:52
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +75 s
Fehler: -12.9 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 19.7 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:55 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:56 (3:59 / km)
Error: +0:59 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 52:24
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:52 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:27 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 20:55 (4:11 / km)
Total: 52:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 24.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 32 Henrika Parviainen
FIN
+42 s
+54 s
G2 / G3
 21:42
21:26
 52:34
Show details
Prediction details: Henrika Parviainen

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 27–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -12.2 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:42 (4:20 / km)
Historical basis: 4:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:26 (4:17 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 52:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:51 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 21:42 (4:20 / km)
Total: 52:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 4.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 37 Eliana Portillo Laflamme
ESA
+82 s
+71 s
G4 / G6
 19:23
19:45
 52:36
Show details
Prediction details: Eliana Portillo Laflamme

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 30–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 11:12
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: 10.8 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.7 s
Gap behind: 6.3 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 31.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:23 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:45 (3:57 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 52:36
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:12 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (37.9 km/h)
Run: 19:23 (3:53 / km)
Total: 52:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 44.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 26 Sarah-Maude Levesque
CAN
+104 s
+77 s
G5 / G4
 18:48
19:17
 52:39
Show details
Prediction details: Sarah-Maude Levesque

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 24–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +104 s
Time: 11:34
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: 27.4 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -2.06 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 1.29 %, Sicherheit 84 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 52:39
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:34 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:06 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Total: 52:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 66.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 38 Morgan O'Keefe
USA
+102 s
+111 s
G5 / G6
 19:14
20:01
 53:05
Show details
Prediction details: Morgan O'Keefe

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 32–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +102 s
Time: 11:32
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +111 s
Fehler: -9.2 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.7 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:14 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:01 (4:00 / km)
Error: −0:47 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 53:05
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:32 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:06 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 19:14 (3:51 / km)
Total: 53:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 64.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 39 Ella Kern
CAN
+88 s
+86 s
G4 / G5
 21:46
21:43
 54:59
Show details
Prediction details: Ella Kern

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 38–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +88 s
Time: 11:18
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +86 s
Fehler: 2.1 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.3 s
Gap behind: 6.0 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:46 (4:21 / km)
Historical basis: 4:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:43 (4:21 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 54:59
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:18 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (37.9 km/h)
Run: 21:46 (4:21 / km)
Total: 54:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 50.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 33 Hayley Hood
CAN
+105 s
+109 s
G5 / G5
correct 		21:20
19:18
 55:11
Show details
Prediction details: Hayley Hood

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 39–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +105 s
Time: 11:35
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +109 s
Fehler: -3.6 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:20 (4:16 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:18 (3:52 / km)
Error: +2:02 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 55:11
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:35 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:06 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 21:20 (4:16 / km)
Total: 55:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 67.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 10 Gabby Martin
USA
+43 s
+36 s
G2 / G1
17:55
Show details
Prediction details: Gabby Martin

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 7.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (21 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:51 (40.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 5.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 40 Keeley Mick
USA
+0 s
+112 s
G0 / G5
22:33
Show details
Prediction details: Keeley Mick

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 41–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +112 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:33 (4:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 41 Bethany Smeed
USA
+0 s
+206 s
G0 / G7
21:19
Show details
Prediction details: Bethany Smeed

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 42–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +206 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 29.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:19 (4:16 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.