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Elite Men

27.06.2026 Parc Jean Drapeau CAN
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Americas Triathlon Cup Montreal

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 27.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 calibrated
Prediction quality 90/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 74 früheren Rennen und 1901 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 50.4 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 04.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 79.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 93.9 % · 74 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.1
Mean swim error16.1 s
Mean bike-speed error1.57 km/h
Correct bike groups21/48
No history1
Within the 80% range38.8 %
Details
1 / 30 Tristen Jones
CAN
+31 s
+19 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:39
18:10
 43:22
Show details
Prediction details: Tristen Jones

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–13
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -29

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 11.7 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Error: −2:31 / −0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 43:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Total: 43:22
2 / 2 Angel Yael Yépez Meza
MEX
+42 s
+22 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:39
15:23
 43:22
Show details
Prediction details: Angel Yael Yépez Meza

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 19.5 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:22
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Total: 43:22
3 / 5 Theo Marti
LUX
+24 s
+21 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:40
15:30
 43:23
Show details
Prediction details: Theo Marti

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–13
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 3.2 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 92 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Total: 43:23
4 / 1 Daniel Ubilla Sabada
CHI
+26 s
+24 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:47
15:19
 43:30
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Ubilla Sabada

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–19
Top-10 probability: 59 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 1.8 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:19 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Total: 43:30
5 / 7 Robi Racine
CAN
+40 s
+28 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:56
15:41
 43:39
Show details
Prediction details: Robi Racine

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–15
Top-10 probability: 66 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 12.4 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 99 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:39
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Total: 43:39
6 / 12 Peyton Miller
USA
+29 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:01
15:46
 43:44
Show details
Prediction details: Peyton Miller

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–12
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 16.5 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:44
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Total: 43:44
7 / 8 Leandre Binette
CAN
+18 s
+16 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:05
15:42
 43:48
Show details
Prediction details: Leandre Binette

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 2–15
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 2.3 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:42 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Total: 43:48
8 / 21 Kanta Ando
JPN
+34 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:07
16:38
 43:50
Show details
Prediction details: Kanta Ando

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 15.7 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 76 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:07 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 66 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 16:07 (3:13 / km)
Total: 43:50
9 / 13 Hayden Woodrow
CAN
+18 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:09
15:51
 43:52
Show details
Prediction details: Hayden Woodrow

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 18.3 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Total: 43:52
10 / 4 Lukas Vadeika
CAN
+23 s
+24 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:11
15:25
 43:54
Show details
Prediction details: Lukas Vadeika

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 1–15
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.83 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 92 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 43:54
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Total: 43:54
11 / 6 Henry Bristol
CAN
+37 s
+25 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:18
15:36
 44:01
Show details
Prediction details: Henry Bristol

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 2–25
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 12.1 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:42 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 44:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Total: 44:01
12 / 15 João Teixeira Alvares
BRA
+27 s
+25 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:37
16:12
 44:20
Show details
Prediction details: João Teixeira Alvares

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 7–21
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 2.4 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:12 (3:14 / km)
Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 44:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Total: 44:20
13 / 25 Adoh Doherty
LBN
+33 s
+27 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:43
17:11
 44:26
Show details
Prediction details: Adoh Doherty

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 1–26
Top-10 probability: 39 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 6.1 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 44:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km)
Total: 44:26
14 / 10 Alexandre Leblanc
CAN
+36 s
+36 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:43
15:42
 44:26
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandre Leblanc

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–20
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:42 (3:08 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 44:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km)
Total: 44:26
15 / 3 Cole Jamieson 
USA
+13 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:53
15:29
 44:36
Show details
Prediction details: Cole Jamieson 

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 5–21
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 9:22
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: -0.1 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Error: +1:24 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 44:36
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km)
Total: 44:36
16 / 24 Yui Fung Chan
HKG
+39 s
+34 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:05
17:03
 44:48
Show details
Prediction details: Yui Fung Chan

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 13–29
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 4.9 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:05 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 44:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 17:05 (3:25 / km)
Total: 44:48
17 / 14 Diego Ladera Querales
PER
+41 s
+26 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:17
16:01
 45:00
Show details
Prediction details: Diego Ladera Querales

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 15–30
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 14.8 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:17 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Error: +1:16 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 45:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 17:17 (3:27 / km)
Total: 45:00
18 / 31 Rohan Takkar
USA
+57 s
+50 s
G4 / G2
 15:09
17:07
 45:01
Show details
Prediction details: Rohan Takkar

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 5–21
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: 7.2 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:09 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 1.14 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Error: −1:58 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 45:01
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:53 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 15:09 (3:02 / km)
Total: 45:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 13.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 20 Jake Adler
USA
+39 s
+24 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:18
16:38
 45:01
Show details
Prediction details: Jake Adler

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 10–29
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 15.4 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 45:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Total: 45:01
20 / 9 Jack Spence
RSA
+54 s
+36 s
G4 / G1
 15:10
15:35
 45:02
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Spence

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 2–19
Top-10 probability: 39 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 18.4 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 45:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:53 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Total: 45:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 10.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 17 Nicholas Pilgrim
BER
+22 s
+21 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:41
16:21
 45:24
Show details
Prediction details: Nicholas Pilgrim

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 18–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 0.9 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Error: +1:20 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 45:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Total: 45:24
22 / 16 Daniel Epp
CAN
+50 s
+29 s
G3 / G1
 16:24
16:04
 45:50
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Epp

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 3–30
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 21.2 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 45:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:35 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km)
Total: 45:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 6.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 32 Nico Stockwell
CAN
+59 s
+49 s
G4 / G2
 16:12
17:25
 46:04
Show details
Prediction details: Nico Stockwell

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 17–27
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: 10.4 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.84 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:12 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Error: −1:13 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 46:04
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:53 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 16:12 (3:14 / km)
Total: 46:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 15.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 11 Nicolas Harvey
CAN
+30 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:22
15:56
 46:05
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolas Harvey

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 22–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 16.5 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -1.20 %, Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Error: +2:26 / +0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 46:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Total: 46:05
25 / 27 Matteo Somma
USA
+60 s
+50 s
G4 / G2
 16:15
16:09
 46:07
Show details
Prediction details: Matteo Somma

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 6–36
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: 9.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -1.38 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:07
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:53 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Total: 46:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 15.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 34 Evan Mahrous
USA
+25 s
+31 s
G1 / G2
 18:26
17:45
 46:09
Show details
Prediction details: Evan Mahrous

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 24–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -5.7 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 46:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Total: 46:09
27 / 44 Jack Screen
CAN
+59 s
+50 s
G4 / G4
correct 		16:38
18:23
 46:30
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Screen

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 12–35
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 44
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: 9.0 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Error: −1:45 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 46:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:53 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Total: 46:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 15.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 19 Adam Janah
USA
+46 s
+29 s
G2 / G1
 17:22
16:30
 46:31
Show details
Prediction details: Adam Janah

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 14–31
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 17.1 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:30 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:52 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 46:31
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:22 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Total: 46:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 2.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 33 Jackson Foster
USA
+70 s
+51 s
G6 / G1
 16:11
18:52
 47:27
Show details
Prediction details: Jackson Foster

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 20–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 18.9 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.2 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.11 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Error: −2:41 / −0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 47:27
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:05 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Total: 47:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 26.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 28 Leo Savoie
CAN
+50 s
+34 s
G3 / G1
 18:10
17:57
 47:36
Show details
Prediction details: Leo Savoie

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 15–34
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 16.2 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 73 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 65 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:36
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:35 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Total: 47:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 6.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 18 Olivier Houle
CAN
+63 s
+45 s
G5 / G1
 16:47
16:24
 47:38
Show details
Prediction details: Olivier Houle

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 22–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: 18.4 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.84 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:24 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 47:38
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:47 (40.3 km/h)
Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Total: 47:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 19.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 49 Griff Morgan
USA
+15 s
+15 s
G1 / G5
 20:20
22:32
 48:03
Show details
Prediction details: Griff Morgan

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 29–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 49
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: -0.3 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:20 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:32 (4:30 / km)
Error: −2:12 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 48:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 20:20 (4:04 / km)
Total: 48:03
33 / 26 Foster Wilfong
USA
+79 s
+32 s
G7 / G2
 16:38
15:49
 48:16
Show details
Prediction details: Foster Wilfong

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 32–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +79 s
Time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 47.2 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 17.9 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:49 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 48:16
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:28 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Total: 48:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 35.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 40 Ethan Johnson-Skinner
CAN
+71 s
+65 s
G6 / G3
 17:23
17:57
 48:39
Show details
Prediction details: Ethan Johnson-Skinner

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 29–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +71 s
Time: 10:20
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: 5.7 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 5.9 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:34 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 48:39
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:20 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:05 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Total: 48:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 26.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 35 Cezar Hirsescu
CAN
+51 s
+39 s
G3 / G1
 19:23
19:32
 48:49
Show details
Prediction details: Cezar Hirsescu

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 32–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 11.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.16 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:23 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:32 (3:54 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:49
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:35 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 19:23 (3:53 / km)
Total: 48:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 6.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 41 Chad Uys
RSA
+77 s
+40 s
G7 / G4
 17:16
18:06
 48:54
Show details
Prediction details: Chad Uys

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 25–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 10:26
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 36.6 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:06 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:50 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 48:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Total: 48:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 32.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 42 Evan Bittner
USA
+101 s
+93 s
G7 / G4
 17:47
18:09
 49:25
Show details
Prediction details: Evan Bittner

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 37–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +101 s
Time: 10:50
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +93 s
Fehler: 8.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:25
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:50 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Total: 49:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 57.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 39 Samuel Zuluaga Cardona
COL
+65 s
+47 s
G5 / G2
 18:43
19:22
 49:34
Show details
Prediction details: Samuel Zuluaga Cardona

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 23–44
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 17.7 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 5.2 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:22 (3:52 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 49:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:47 (40.3 km/h)
Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Total: 49:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 20.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 22 Josiah Wilkinson
CAN
+50 s
+39 s
G3 / G1
 20:22
16:40
 49:48
Show details
Prediction details: Josiah Wilkinson

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 33–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 10.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:22 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 75 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Error: +3:42 / +0:44 / km
Overall prediction: 49:48
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:35 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 20:22 (4:04 / km)
Total: 49:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 5.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 29 Judson Schulz
USA
+100 s
+71 s
G7 / G2
 18:20
16:21
 49:58
Show details
Prediction details: Judson Schulz

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 38–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +100 s
Time: 10:49
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: 29.2 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.95 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Error: +1:59 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 49:58
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:49 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Total: 49:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 56.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 46 Austin Beese
CAN
+55 s
+25 s
G4 / G2
 20:26
21:19
 50:18
Show details
Prediction details: Austin Beese

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 35–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 30.4 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:26 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:19 (4:16 / km)
Error: −0:53 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 50:18
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:53 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 20:26 (4:05 / km)
Total: 50:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 11.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 36 Joshua Malenchak
CAN
+77 s
+51 s
G7 / G2
 18:46
18:03
 50:24
Show details
Prediction details: Joshua Malenchak

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 38–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 10:26
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 25.7 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.18 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:43 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 50:24
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Total: 50:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 32.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 37 William McElgunn
USA
+102 s
+81 s
G7 / G4
 19:13
16:32
 50:51
Show details
Prediction details: William McElgunn

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 42–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +102 s
Time: 10:51
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +81 s
Fehler: 20.9 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 19.0 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:13 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -1.06 %, Sicherheit 91 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Error: +2:41 / +0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 50:51
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:51 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 19:13 (3:51 / km)
Total: 50:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 58.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 23 Miguel Alvarez
CAN
+57 s
+39 s
G4 / G1
 21:07
17:01
 50:59
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Alvarez

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 40–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 18.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:07 (4:13 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Error: +4:06 / +0:49 / km
Overall prediction: 50:59
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:53 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 21:07 (4:13 / km)
Total: 50:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 13.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 48 Brandon Szuch
USA
+97 s
+64 s
G7 / G3
 20:00
20:28
 51:38
Show details
Prediction details: Brandon Szuch

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 43–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +97 s
Time: 10:46
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: 33.1 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 17.9 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:00 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:28 (4:06 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 51:38
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 20:00 (4:00 / km)
Total: 51:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 53.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 47 Dylan Peters
CAN
+121 s
+95 s
G7 / G4
 20:18
19:49
 51:56
Show details
Prediction details: Dylan Peters

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 45–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +121 s
Time: 11:10
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +95 s
Fehler: 25.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.0 s
Gap behind: 7.1 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:18 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:49 (3:58 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 51:56
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:10 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 20:18 (4:04 / km)
Total: 51:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 77.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 43 Alexandre Cesar Borges Da Nobrega
BRA
+128 s
+42 s
G8 / G2
 20:06
19:51
 53:17
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandre Cesar Borges Da Nobrega

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 46–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 43
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +128 s
Time: 11:17
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 86.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.1 s
Gap behind: 10.0 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:06 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:51 (3:58 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 53:17
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:17 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:03 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 20:06 (4:01 / km)
Total: 53:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 84.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 45 Cheng-Hsi Tai
TPE
+138 s
+98 s
G9 / G4
 20:33
18:46
 54:35
Show details
Prediction details: Cheng-Hsi Tai

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 47–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +138 s
Time: 11:27
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +98 s
Fehler: 40.0 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 9 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:33 (4:07 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Error: +1:47 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 54:35
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:27 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:44 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 20:33 (4:07 / km)
Total: 54:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 94.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 38 Ryan Buzby
USA
+0 s
+60 s
G0 / G4
16:32
Show details
Prediction details: Ryan Buzby

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 49–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.