PTS3 Women
Race information and calculation basis
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Show model parameters and data quality
Kalibriert mit 29 früheren Rennen und 515 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 50.9 %.
Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 05.07.2026.
Datenabdeckung 66.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 66.7 % · 29 Kalibrierungsrennen
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
| Place Prediction / result |
Athlete | Swimming Prediction / result |
Bike group Prediction / result |
Run Prediction / result |
Overall prediction | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 / 1 |
Kenia Yesenia Villalobos Vargas
MEX
|
+0 s
+0 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
26:08
22:25
|
1:08:33 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:37
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen,
1 Duelle,
Korrektur 2.53 %,
Sicherheit 1 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 30.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
693.7 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -13.43 km/h
Running and totalRun: 26:08 (5:14 / km)
Historical basis: 5:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:12 / km
Trend: −0:06 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen,
2 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.22 %,
Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:25 (4:29 / km)
Error: +3:43 / +0:45 / km
Overall prediction: 1:08:33
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
13:37
(1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
42:25
(30.5 km/h)
Run:
26:08
(5:14 / km)
Total:
1:08:33
|
| 2 / 3 |
Rachel Watts
USA
|
+694 s
+308 s
|
G2 / G3
|
32:30
32:51
|
1:26:18 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +694 s
Time: 25:11
Pace: 3:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +308 s
Fehler: 385.7 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen,
1 Duelle,
Korrektur -2.47 %,
Sicherheit 1 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.7 km/h
Gap ahead:
693.7 s
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 28.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.62 km/h
Running and totalRun: 32:30 (6:30 / km)
Historical basis: 6:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen,
2 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.22 %,
Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:51 (6:34 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:18
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming:
25:11
(3:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
42:14
(30.7 km/h)
Run:
32:30
(6:30 / km)
Total:
1:26:18
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:49
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
About 682.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 0 / 2 |
Kassandra Case
USA
|
+0 s
+138 s
|
G0 / G2
|
23:14
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:37
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +138 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:14 (4:39 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
13:37
(1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|