Prediction comparison

PTS4 Men

05.07.2026 CHI

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Americas Triathlon Para Championships Antofagasta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 68/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 35 früheren Rennen und 809 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 47.7 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 05.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 42.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 57.1 % · 35 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.4

Mean swim error174.4 s

Mean bike-speed error3.42 km/h

Correct bike groups1/5

No history2

Within the 80% range0.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Carson Clough USA	+45 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	17:16 19:21	52:52	Show details Prediction details: Carson Clough Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 11:02 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 45.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 38.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 45.0 s Gap behind: 48.8 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 38.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.37 km/h Running and total Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 1.26 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:21 (3:52 / km) Error: −2:05 / −0:25 / km Overall prediction: 52:52 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:02 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:03 (38.1 km/h) Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km) Total: 52:52
2 / 4	Eric McElvenny USA	+94 s +123 s	G1 / G2	19:00 23:01	54:36	Show details Prediction details: Eric McElvenny Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +94 s Time: 11:51 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +123 s Fehler: -29.2 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 99 % Speed: 38.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 48.8 s Gap behind: 92.0 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 34.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.39 km/h Running and total Run: 19:00 (3:48 / km) Historical basis: 3:48 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:01 (4:36 / km) Error: −4:01 / −0:48 / km Overall prediction: 54:36 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:51 (1:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:03 (38.1 km/h) Run: 19:00 (3:48 / km) Total: 54:36
3 / 2	Jorge Luis Fonseca BRA	+186 s +68 s	G2 / G1	20:25 20:16	57:49	Show details Prediction details: Jorge Luis Fonseca Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +186 s Time: 13:23 Pace: 1:47 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +68 s Fehler: 117.8 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 92.0 s Gap behind: 408.0 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 40.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.53 km/h Running and total Run: 20:25 (4:05 / km) Historical basis: 4:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.85 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:16 (4:03 / km) Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 57:49 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:23 (1:47 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:18 (37.8 km/h) Run: 20:25 (4:05 / km) Total: 57:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 11:54 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m About 89.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +96.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 7	Bastían Berrios Valdivia CHI	+594 s +363 s	G3 / G4	38:42 27:25	1:38:56	Show details Prediction details: Bastían Berrios Valdivia Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +594 s Time: 20:11 Pace: 2:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +363 s Fehler: 230.8 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 408.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 30.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.75 km/h Running and total Run: 38:42 (7:44 / km) Historical basis: 7:50 / km Best comparable pace: 7:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.15 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:25 (5:29 / km) Error: +11:17 / +2:15 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:56 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 20:11 (2:41 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 50:20 (25.7 km/h) Run: 38:42 (7:44 / km) Total: 1:38:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 11:54 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m About 497.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +96.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3	Shane Harvey USA	+0 s +219 s	G0 / G2	20:03		Show details Prediction details: Shane Harvey Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:17 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +219 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:03 (4:01 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Marcelo Goncalves da Silva BRA	+0 s +180 s	G0 / G3	23:46		Show details Prediction details: Marcelo Goncalves da Silva Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:17 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +180 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 34.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:46 (4:45 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Lucas Santos BRA	+0 s +449 s	G1 / G4	25:41		Show details Prediction details: Lucas Santos Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:17 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +449 s Fehler: -449.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 99 % Speed: 38.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 45.0 s Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 32.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.07 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 25:41 (5:08 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:03 (38.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total