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PTS4 Women

05.07.2026 CHI
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Americas Triathlon Para Championships Antofagasta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 54/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 29 früheren Rennen und 515 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 50.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 05.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 25.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 29 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.0
Mean swim error56.4 s
Mean bike-speed error46.08 km/h
Correct bike groups0/2
No history2
Within the 80% range25.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Emma Meyers
USA
+100 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 26:08
25:00
 1:10:19
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Meyers

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +100 s
Time: 15:12
Pace: 2:02 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 100.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.23 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 30.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 84.8 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 30.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:08 (5:14 / km)
Historical basis: 5:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:37 / km
Trend: −0:06 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.82 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:00 (5:00 / km)
Error: +1:08 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:10:19
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:12 (2:02 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 42:31 (30.5 km/h)
Run: 26:08 (5:14 / km)
Total: 1:10:19
2 / 3 Rafaela Rojas
CHI
+185 s
+172 s
G2 / G1
 32:46
1:02:42
 1:27:41
Show details
Prediction details: Rafaela Rojas

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +185 s
Time: 16:37
Pace: 2:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +172 s
Fehler: 12.8 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.19 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 84.8 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 116.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -91.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:46 (6:33 / km)
Historical basis: 6:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.79 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:02:42 (12:32 / km)
Error: −29:56 / −5:59 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:41
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 16:37 (2:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:50 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 32:46 (6:33 / km)
Total: 1:27:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:16
Pace: 2:02 / 100 m
About 80.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +103.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 Ana Lucia Vicente Garcia
MEX
+0 s
+71 s
G0 / G3
22:23
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Lucia Vicente Garcia

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:32
Pace: 1:48 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:23 (4:29 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 13:32 (1:48 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Daniela Andrea Martinez Mariscal
MEX
+0 s
+642 s
G0 / G4
27:43
Show details
Prediction details: Daniela Andrea Martinez Mariscal

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:32
Pace: 1:48 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +642 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 29.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:43 (5:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 13:32 (1:48 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.