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PTS5 Men

05.07.2026 CHI
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Americas Triathlon Para Championships Antofagasta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 71/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 35 früheren Rennen und 809 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 47.7 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 05.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 50.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 75.0 % · 35 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.3
Mean swim error301.9 s
Mean bike-speed error4.34 km/h
Correct bike groups2/3
No history1
Within the 80% range50.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Ruiter Antonio Goncalves Silva
BRA
+45 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		21:04
18:26
 55:05
Show details
Prediction details: Ruiter Antonio Goncalves Silva

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 12:19
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 45.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.02 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 164.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km)
Historical basis: 4:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Error: +2:38 / +0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 55:05
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:19 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:16 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km)
Total: 55:05
2 / 2 Jesus Moreno
USA
+209 s
+189 s
G2 / G2
correct 		21:16
19:05
 59:32
Show details
Prediction details: Jesus Moreno

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +209 s
Time: 15:03
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +189 s
Fehler: 20.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.04 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 164.0 s
Gap behind: 959.8 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:16 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.50 %, Sicherheit 0 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:05 (3:49 / km)
Error: +2:11 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 59:32
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 15:03 (2:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:47 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 21:16 (4:15 / km)
Total: 59:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:22
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 161.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +47.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4 Jose Soto Soto
CHI
+1,169 s
+328 s
G3 / G4
 31:11
24:53
 1:42:30
Show details
Prediction details: Jose Soto Soto

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1,169 s
Time: 31:03
Pace: 4:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +328 s
Fehler: 840.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 959.8 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -9.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:11 (6:14 / km)
Historical basis: 6:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:53 (4:59 / km)
Error: +6:18 / +1:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:30
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 31:03 (4:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:50 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 31:11 (6:14 / km)
Total: 1:42:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:22
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 1120.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +47.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Jeremías Federico Gallardo
ARG
+0 s
+193 s
G0 / G3
20:09
Show details
Prediction details: Jeremías Federico Gallardo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:34
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +193 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:09 (4:02 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:34 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.