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PTVI Men

05.07.2026 CHI
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Americas Triathlon Para Championships Antofagasta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 55/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 35 früheren Rennen und 809 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 47.7 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 05.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 16.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 35 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.5
Mean swim error129.2 s
Mean bike-speed error7.55 km/h
Correct bike groups3/8
No history4
Within the 80% range25.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Owen Cravens B3
USA
+17 s
+135 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:35
17:54
 49:03
Show details
Prediction details: Owen Cravens B3

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 10:21
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +135 s
Fehler: -118.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 17.0 s
Gap behind: 85.6 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 48.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.71 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 49:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:21 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:45 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Total: 49:03
2 / 10 Rhys Jones B3
TRI
+103 s
+159 s
G1 / G10
 19:08
19:26
 49:36
Show details
Prediction details: Rhys Jones B3

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +103 s
Time: 11:47
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +159 s
Fehler: -56.4 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 85.6 s
Gap behind: 45.0 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 27.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 17.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:26 (3:53 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:36
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:47 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:45 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Total: 49:36
3 / 6 Juan Gabriel Espinel B1
COL
+247 s
+293 s
G2 / G6
 23:22
20:44
 1:03:30
Show details
Prediction details: Juan Gabriel Espinel B1

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +247 s
Time: 14:11
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +293 s
Fehler: -46.4 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 25.0 s
Gap behind: 44.4 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:22 (4:40 / km)
Historical basis: 4:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:44 (4:09 / km)
Error: +2:38 / +0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 1:03:30
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 14:11 (1:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:01 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 23:22 (4:40 / km)
Total: 1:03:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:50
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 141.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +105.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 3 Heli de Jesús Casillas Alcalá B1
MEX
+291 s
+104 s
G3 / G3
correct 		22:00
19:45
 1:04:02
Show details
Prediction details: Heli de Jesús Casillas Alcalá B1

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 6–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +291 s
Time: 14:55
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +104 s
Fehler: 187.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 44.4 s
Gap behind: 178.6 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:00 (4:24 / km)
Historical basis: 4:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:45 (3:57 / km)
Error: +2:15 / +0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 1:04:02
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:55 (1:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:11 (34.8 km/h)
Run: 22:00 (4:24 / km)
Total: 1:04:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:50
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 185.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +105.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 2 Yunerki Ortega Ponce B1
CHI
+148 s
+0 s
G2 / G2
correct 		24:10
20:01
 1:04:18
Show details
Prediction details: Yunerki Ortega Ponce B1

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 6–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +148 s
Time: 12:32
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 147.6 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 45.0 s
Gap behind: 74.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:10 (4:50 / km)
Historical basis: 4:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:01 (4:00 / km)
Error: +4:09 / +0:50 / km
Overall prediction: 1:04:18
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 12:32 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:01 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 24:10 (4:50 / km)
Total: 1:04:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:50
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 42.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +105.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 8 Luis Gutierrez Silva B1
CHI
+470 s
+514 s
G4 / G7
 22:35
21:03
 1:16:37
Show details
Prediction details: Luis Gutierrez Silva B1

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +470 s
Time: 17:54
Pace: 2:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +514 s
Fehler: -44.4 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 178.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -10.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:35 (4:31 / km)
Historical basis: 4:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:03 (4:13 / km)
Error: +1:32 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:16:37
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 17:54 (2:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 46:13 (28.0 km/h)
Run: 22:35 (4:31 / km)
Total: 1:16:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:24
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 449.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Olivier Desloges B3
CAN
+222 s
+295 s
G2 / G4
20:11
Show details
Prediction details: Olivier Desloges B3

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +222 s
Time: 13:46
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +295 s
Fehler: -73.4 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 74.0 s
Gap behind: 25.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -7.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:11 (4:02 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 13:46 (1:50 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:01 (36.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:26
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 139.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +82 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5 Christian Chavez B2
USA
+0 s
+288 s
G0 / G5
21:15
Show details
Prediction details: Christian Chavez B2

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +288 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:15 (4:15 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Pedro Henrique Moschen Ramos B2
BRA
+0 s
+360 s
G1 / G8
20:05
Show details
Prediction details: Pedro Henrique Moschen Ramos B2

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +360 s
Fehler: -360.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 17.0 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:05 (4:01 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:45 (45.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 9 Alberto Martin Yapur Gaya B2
ARG
+0 s
+501 s
G0 / G9
22:03
Show details
Prediction details: Alberto Martin Yapur Gaya B2

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +501 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:03 (4:25 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Felipe Cisternas B3
CHI
+0 s
+876 s
G0 / G11
30:24
Show details
Prediction details: Felipe Cisternas B3

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +876 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 30.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:24 (6:05 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Manuel Alarcon Cancino B1
CHI
+0 s
+1861 s
G0 / G12
39:04
Show details
Prediction details: Manuel Alarcon Cancino B1

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1861 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 29.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:04 (7:49 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.