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PTVI Women

05.07.2026 CHI
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Americas Triathlon Para Championships Antofagasta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 75/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 29 früheren Rennen und 515 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 50.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 05.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 66.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 29 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.0
Mean swim error22.1 s
Mean bike-speed error0.62 km/h
Correct bike groups2/3
No history0
Within the 80% range33.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 McClain Hermes B1
USA
+2 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		23:39
21:43
 57:11
Show details
Prediction details: McClain Hermes B1

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +2 s
Time: 12:31
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 2.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 56.5 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:39 (4:44 / km)
Historical basis: 4:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:48 / km
Trend: −0:06 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:43 (4:21 / km)
Error: +1:56 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 57:11
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:31 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:30 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 23:39 (4:44 / km)
Total: 57:11
2 / 2 Leticia Freitas B1
BRA
+59 s
+13 s
G2 / G2
correct 		22:46
22:28
 58:06
Show details
Prediction details: Leticia Freitas B1

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 13:28
Pace: 1:48 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 45.5 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -1.23 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 56.5 s
Gap behind: 41.8 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:46 (4:33 / km)
Historical basis: 4:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:28 (4:30 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 58:06
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:28 (1:48 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:40 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 22:46 (4:33 / km)
Total: 58:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:35
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
About 52.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Margot Wehrle B1
CAN
+100 s
+119 s
G2 / G3
27:34
Show details
Prediction details: Margot Wehrle B1

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +100 s
Time: 14:09
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +119 s
Fehler: -18.7 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.70 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 41.8 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:34 (5:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 14:09 (1:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:40 (37.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:23
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
About 45.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +54.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.