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Elite Women

21.03.2026 NEP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Asia Triathlon Cup and South Asian Championships Pokhara

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 94/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 69 früheren Rennen und 564 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 31.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 88.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 69 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.1
Mean swim error28.8 s
Mean bike-speed error2.11 km/h
Correct bike groups3/9
No history0
Within the 80% range100.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Sarika Nakayama
JPN
+26 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:29
18:25
 51:41
Show details
Prediction details: Sarika Nakayama

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 22.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 18.3 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 51:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:28 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Total: 51:41
2 / 4 Yuki Sugihara
JPN
+44 s
+44 s
G1 / G2
 18:38
18:55
 51:50
Show details
Prediction details: Yuki Sugihara

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -0.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 18.3 s
Gap behind: 16.4 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:38 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:55 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 51:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:28 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 18:38 (3:44 / km)
Total: 51:50
3 / 3 Minori Ikeno
JPN
+15 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		20:37
19:51
 53:49
Show details
Prediction details: Minori Ikeno

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 15.4 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 68 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 6.6 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:37 (4:07 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.88 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:51 (3:58 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 53:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:28 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 20:37 (4:07 / km)
Total: 53:49
4 / 5 Grete Maria Savitsch
EST
+22 s
+41 s
G1 / G2
 20:45
20:18
 53:57
Show details
Prediction details: Grete Maria Savitsch

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -19.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.58 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.6 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:45 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:18 (4:04 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 53:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:28 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 20:45 (4:09 / km)
Total: 53:57
5 / 6 Ikumi Seto
JPN
+78 s
+53 s
G2 / G3
 18:08
18:07
 54:30
Show details
Prediction details: Ikumi Seto

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +78 s
Time: 11:03
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: 25.4 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 18.1 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 54:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:03 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:01 (33.3 km/h)
Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Total: 54:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 57.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 2 Alina Khakimova
UZB
+80 s
+45 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:29
17:50
 54:51
Show details
Prediction details: Alina Khakimova

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +80 s
Time: 11:05
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: 35.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 54:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:05 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:01 (33.3 km/h)
Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Total: 54:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
7 / 8 Mansi Mohite
IND
+81 s
+79 s
G2 / G4
 20:22
21:44
 56:44
Show details
Prediction details: Mansi Mohite

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 11:06
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +79 s
Fehler: 1.8 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 271.2 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 25.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:22 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 1.22 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:44 (4:21 / km)
Error: −1:22 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 56:44
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:06 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:01 (33.3 km/h)
Run: 20:22 (4:04 / km)
Total: 56:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 59.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 7 Dolly Devidas Patil
IND
+60 s
+51 s
G2 / G3
 20:32
20:43
 56:54
Show details
Prediction details: Dolly Devidas Patil

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 10:45
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 9.3 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.4 s
Gap behind: 18.1 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:32 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:43 (4:09 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 56:54
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:45 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:01 (33.3 km/h)
Run: 20:32 (4:06 / km)
Total: 56:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 39 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 9 Yuska Maharjan
NEP
+352 s
+221 s
G3 / G4
 28:33
28:20
 1:19:52
Show details
Prediction details: Yuska Maharjan

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +352 s
Time: 15:37
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +221 s
Fehler: 131.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 271.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 26.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 28:33 (5:43 / km)
Historical basis: 5:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:20 (5:40 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:19:52
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 15:37 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 45:27 (25.7 km/h)
Run: 28:33 (5:43 / km)
Total: 1:19:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 330.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.