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Junior Women

21.06.2026 Triathlon Park KAZ
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Asia Triathlon Junior Cup Astana

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 71/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 52 früheren Rennen und 877 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 47.7 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 21.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 42.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 52 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.3
Mean swim error27.4 s
Mean bike-speed error2.77 km/h
Correct bike groups5/7
No history7
Within the 80% range21.4 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Kayla Nadia Shafa
INA
+38 s
+37 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:28
19:49
 52:59
Show details
Prediction details: Kayla Nadia Shafa

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 11:41
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 0.8 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:49 (3:58 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 52:59
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:41 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:53 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Total: 52:59
2 / 2 Alua Nurmuhamet
KAZ
+38 s
+16 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:44
19:24
 53:15
Show details
Prediction details: Alua Nurmuhamet

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 11:41
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 22.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 48.7 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:44 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:24 (3:53 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 53:15
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:41 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:53 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 19:44 (3:57 / km)
Total: 53:15
3 / 4 Kaleriya Shneider
KAZ
+33 s
+35 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:46
20:28
 53:17
Show details
Prediction details: Kaleriya Shneider

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 11:36
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -2.5 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -2.35 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.5 s
Gap behind: 5.3 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:46 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:28 (4:06 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 53:17
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:36 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:53 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 19:46 (3:57 / km)
Total: 53:17
4 / 5 Charlotte Thurston
UAE
+21 s
+46 s
G1 / G1
correct 		21:19
21:47
 54:50
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte Thurston

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 11:24
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -25.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.10 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 11.5 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:19 (4:16 / km)
Historical basis: 4:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:47 (4:21 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 54:50
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:24 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:53 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 21:19 (4:16 / km)
Total: 54:50
5 / 1 Aida Kim
KAZ
+87 s
+53 s
G2 / G1
 19:10
19:23
 56:08
Show details
Prediction details: Aida Kim

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +87 s
Time: 12:30
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: 33.7 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 48.7 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:23 (3:53 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 56:08
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:30 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:04 (34.3 km/h)
Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Total: 56:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:30
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
About 59.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 7 Dayana Lukienko
UZB
+114 s
+144 s
G2 / G2
correct 		20:42
21:48
 57:40
Show details
Prediction details: Dayana Lukienko

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +114 s
Time: 12:57
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +144 s
Fehler: -30.3 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 22.4 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:42 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -1.08 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:48 (4:22 / km)
Error: −1:06 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 57:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:57 (1:44 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:04 (34.3 km/h)
Run: 20:42 (4:08 / km)
Total: 57:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:30
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
About 86.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 14 Mia Sahyoun
LBN
+91 s
+169 s
G2 / G4
 23:55
25:01
 1:00:53
Show details
Prediction details: Mia Sahyoun

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +91 s
Time: 12:34
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +169 s
Fehler: -77.7 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 22.4 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:55 (4:47 / km)
Historical basis: 4:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:01 (5:00 / km)
Error: −1:06 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:53
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 12:34 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:04 (34.3 km/h)
Run: 23:55 (4:47 / km)
Total: 1:00:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:30
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
About 64.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Daria Volkova
RUS
+0 s
+0 s
G0 / G1
22:24
Show details
Prediction details: Daria Volkova

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:03
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 32.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:24 (4:29 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:03 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Sofya Kolyuka
KAZ
+0 s
+113 s
G0 / G2
24:03
Show details
Prediction details: Sofya Kolyuka

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:03
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +113 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 32.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:03 (4:49 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:03 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Nuray Naryzhnaya
KAZ
+0 s
+131 s
G0 / G3
23:29
Show details
Prediction details: Nuray Naryzhnaya

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:03
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +131 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:29 (4:42 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:03 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Zhansezim Kanay
KAZ
+0 s
+118 s
G0 / G3
24:19
Show details
Prediction details: Zhansezim Kanay

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:03
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +118 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:19 (4:52 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:03 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Ayazhan Kassenova
KAZ
+0 s
+58 s
G0 / G3
25:24
Show details
Prediction details: Ayazhan Kassenova

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:03
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:24 (5:05 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:03 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Medina Makulzhanova
KAZ
+0 s
+130 s
G0 / G3
25:30
Show details
Prediction details: Medina Makulzhanova

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:03
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +130 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 31.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:30 (5:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:03 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Sara Maralbekova
KAZ
+0 s
+120 s
G0 / G3
25:37
Show details
Prediction details: Sara Maralbekova

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:03
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +120 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:37 (5:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:03 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.