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U23 Women

14.03.2026 Lung Wo Road Central HKG
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Asia Triathlon Junior & U23 Championships Hong Kong

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 98/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 69 früheren Rennen und 564 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 31.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 95.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 69 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.6
Mean swim error15.4 s
Mean bike-speed error0.87 km/h
Correct bike groups8/20
No history0
Within the 80% range95.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Gayeon Park
KOR
+20 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:57
17:27
 47:34
Show details
Prediction details: Gayeon Park

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 10:50
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 17.3 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 96 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 47:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:50 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Total: 47:34
2 / 2 Ayame Hayashi
JPN
+21 s
+8 s
G1 / G2
 18:13
17:50
 47:50
Show details
Prediction details: Ayame Hayashi

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 10:51
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 12.9 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 47:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:51 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Total: 47:50
3 / 5 Cade Wright
HKG
+31 s
+44 s
G2 / G3
 18:32
18:24
 48:23
Show details
Prediction details: Cade Wright

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 11:01
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -12.6 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 71 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:24 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:01 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Total: 48:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
About 1.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 3 Hinaka Masuda
JPN
+17 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:03
18:53
 48:40
Show details
Prediction details: Hinaka Masuda

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 10:47
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 15.4 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 99 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.4 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 90 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:47 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Total: 48:40
5 / 4 Martina Ayu Pratiwi
INA
+32 s
+43 s
G2 / G3
 18:55
18:18
 48:46
Show details
Prediction details: Martina Ayu Pratiwi

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 11:02
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -10.8 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:55 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 48:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:02 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 18:55 (3:47 / km)
Total: 48:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
About 2.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 9 Tallulah Wright
HKG
+12 s
+26 s
G1 / G2
 19:35
19:34
 49:12
Show details
Prediction details: Tallulah Wright

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–9
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 10:42
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -14.0 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 5.4 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:35 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:34 (3:55 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 49:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:42 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 19:35 (3:55 / km)
Total: 49:12
7 / 11 Rio Noda
JPN
+27 s
+43 s
G1 / G3
 19:39
20:12
 49:16
Show details
Prediction details: Rio Noda

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–13
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 10:57
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -16.3 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:39 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:12 (4:02 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 49:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:57 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 19:39 (3:56 / km)
Total: 49:16
8 / 8 Ziqing Lu
CHN
+31 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 19:29
19:42
 49:20
Show details
Prediction details: Ziqing Lu

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–12
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 11:01
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 30.7 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:42 (3:56 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 49:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:01 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Total: 49:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
About 0.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 7 Jirong Dong
CHN
+33 s
+5 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:44
18:49
 49:35
Show details
Prediction details: Jirong Dong

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–13
Top-10 probability: 64 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 11:03
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 28.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 17.2 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:44 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Error: +0:55 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 49:35
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:03 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:18 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 19:44 (3:57 / km)
Total: 49:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
About 3.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 15 Yeonu Choi
KOR
+25 s
+60 s
G1 / G4
 20:35
19:59
 50:12
Show details
Prediction details: Yeonu Choi

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 9–14
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 10:55
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -34.6 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.87 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:35 (4:07 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:59 (4:00 / km)
Error: +0:36 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 50:12
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:55 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:10 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 20:35 (4:07 / km)
Total: 50:12
11 / 10 Yume Obara
JPN
+50 s
+40 s
G3 / G3
correct 		19:20
19:39
 50:16
Show details
Prediction details: Yume Obara

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 6–14
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 11:20
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 10.4 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 6.6 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:39 (3:56 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 50:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:20 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:06 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Total: 50:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
About 20.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 12 Narumi Kanke
JPN
+50 s
+40 s
G3 / G3
correct 		19:25
20:25
 50:21
Show details
Prediction details: Narumi Kanke

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 5–15
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 11:20
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 10.2 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 17.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:25 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:25 (4:05 / km)
Error: −1:00 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 50:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:20 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:06 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 19:25 (3:53 / km)
Total: 50:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
About 20.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 13 Esther Joy Hong Li Chen
MAS
+72 s
+81 s
G5 / G4
 18:35
19:13
 51:43
Show details
Prediction details: Esther Joy Hong Li Chen

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 8–16
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +72 s
Time: 11:42
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +81 s
Fehler: -8.6 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 11.0 s
Gap behind: 5.7 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:13 (3:51 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 51:43
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:42 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:50 (33.9 km/h)
Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Total: 51:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
About 42.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 6 Kaiye Mai
CHN
+61 s
+47 s
G4 / G3
 18:50
18:36
 51:48
Show details
Prediction details: Kaiye Mai

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 3–15
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 11:31
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 14.4 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 11.0 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:50 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:36 (3:43 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 51:48
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:31 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:56 (33.8 km/h)
Run: 18:50 (3:46 / km)
Total: 51:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
About 31.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 14 Yu-Ting Pan
TPE
+78 s
+81 s
G5 / G4
 19:10
19:16
 52:18
Show details
Prediction details: Yu-Ting Pan

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 13–17
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +78 s
Time: 11:48
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +81 s
Fehler: -2.9 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.7 s
Gap behind: 18.1 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 52:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:48 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:50 (33.9 km/h)
Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Total: 52:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
About 48.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 17 Samantha Corpuz
PHI
+61 s
+88 s
G4 / G5
 20:04
21:42
 53:02
Show details
Prediction details: Samantha Corpuz

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 11–17
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 11:31
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: -27.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 31.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:04 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:42 (4:20 / km)
Error: −1:38 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 53:02
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:31 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:56 (33.8 km/h)
Run: 20:04 (4:01 / km)
Total: 53:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
About 31 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 16 Taeyoung Kim
KOR
+57 s
+60 s
G4 / G4
correct 		21:04
20:49
 54:02
Show details
Prediction details: Taeyoung Kim

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 14–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 11:27
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -3.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 1.39 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 6.6 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km)
Historical basis: 4:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:49 (4:10 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 54:02
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:27 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:56 (33.8 km/h)
Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km)
Total: 54:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
About 27.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 19 Hoi Ching Lam
HKG
+96 s
+106 s
G6 / G6
correct 		21:29
21:47
 57:47
Show details
Prediction details: Hoi Ching Lam

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 18–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +96 s
Time: 12:06
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +106 s
Fehler: -9.8 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 18.1 s
Gap behind: 9.5 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 30.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:29 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 68 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:47 (4:21 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 57:47
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 12:06 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:32 (31.3 km/h)
Run: 21:29 (4:18 / km)
Total: 57:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
About 66.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 18 Wan Tung Wong
HKG
+106 s
+107 s
G6 / G5
 22:19
22:48
 58:37
Show details
Prediction details: Wan Tung Wong

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 18–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +106 s
Time: 12:16
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +107 s
Fehler: -1.3 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 68 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.5 s
Gap behind: 69.5 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:19 (4:28 / km)
Historical basis: 4:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:48 (4:34 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 58:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:16 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:32 (31.3 km/h)
Run: 22:19 (4:28 / km)
Total: 58:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
About 75.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 20 Chiao-Hsun Hsieh
TPE
+175 s
+148 s
G7 / G7
correct 		25:13
25:56
 1:02:59
Show details
Prediction details: Chiao-Hsun Hsieh

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 20–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +175 s
Time: 13:25
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +148 s
Fehler: 27.2 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 69.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 28.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:13 (5:03 / km)
Historical basis: 5:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:56 (5:11 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:59
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 13:25 (1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:51 (31.0 km/h)
Run: 25:13 (5:03 / km)
Total: 1:02:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
About 145.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.