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Elite Men

13.06.2026 CHN
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Asia Triathlon Super Sprint Elite, Youth, U15 Championship Xuzhou

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 86/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 21 früheren Rennen und 450 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 44.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 13.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 21 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error8.1
Mean swim error16.4 s
Mean bike-speed error2.65 km/h
Correct bike groups12/39
No history0
Within the 80% range74.4 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 4 Jérémy Quindos
FRA
+14 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:45
5:38
 19:54
Show details
Prediction details: Jérémy Quindos

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–9
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 3:50
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 1.9 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:45 (2:52 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 12
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:38 (2:49 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 19:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:50 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:54 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 5:45 (2:52 / km)
Total: 19:54
2 / 6 Takuto Oshima
JPN
+10 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:51
5:42
 20:00
Show details
Prediction details: Takuto Oshima

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 3:46
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 9.9 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 159 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:51 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 160 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:42 (2:51 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 20:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:46 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:54 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 5:51 (2:56 / km)
Total: 20:00
3 / 24 Junjie Fan
CHN
+11 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:57
6:18
 20:06
Show details
Prediction details: Junjie Fan

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–20
Top-10 probability: 59 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 3:47
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -6.6 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 143 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:57 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 142 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:18 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 20:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:47 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:54 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 5:57 (2:59 / km)
Total: 20:06
4 / 11 Genta Uchida
JPN
+15 s
+16 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:00
5:52
 20:09
Show details
Prediction details: Genta Uchida

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–13
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 3:51
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: -1.3 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 182 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:00 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 186 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:52 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 20:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:51 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:54 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 6:00 (3:00 / km)
Total: 20:09
5 / 27 Koki Yamamoto
JPN
+15 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:11
6:42
 20:20
Show details
Prediction details: Koki Yamamoto

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 6–19
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 3:51
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 11.5 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:11 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 125 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:42 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 20:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:51 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:54 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 6:11 (3:05 / km)
Total: 20:20
6 / 2 Kazushi Jozuka
JPN
+27 s
+22 s
G2 / G1
 5:45
5:39
 20:23
Show details
Prediction details: Kazushi Jozuka

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 2–20
Top-10 probability: 70 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 4:03
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 4.5 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 142 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:45 (2:52 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:39 (2:50 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 20:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:03 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 5:45 (2:52 / km)
Total: 20:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 7.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 1 Mingxu Li
CHN
+25 s
+6 s
G2 / G1
 5:46
5:30
 20:24
Show details
Prediction details: Mingxu Li

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 1–24
Top-10 probability: 54 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 4:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 19.2 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 97 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:46 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:30 (2:45 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 20:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 5:46 (2:53 / km)
Total: 20:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:54
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 6.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 23 Yegor Krupyakov
KAZ
+2 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:15
6:16
 20:24
Show details
Prediction details: Yegor Krupyakov

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 4–18
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +2 s
Time: 3:38
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: -2.6 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 5.2 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:15 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 12
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:16 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 20:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:38 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:54 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 6:15 (3:07 / km)
Total: 20:24
9 / 8 Xirui Zhang
CHN
+19 s
+22 s
G2 / G1
 5:49
5:45
 20:27
Show details
Prediction details: Xirui Zhang

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 2–13
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -2.7 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 125 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:49 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 125 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:45 (2:53 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 20:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:55 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 5:49 (2:54 / km)
Total: 20:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:54
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 0.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 3 Oscar Coggins
HKG
+20 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 5:50
5:38
 20:28
Show details
Prediction details: Oscar Coggins

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 2–14
Top-10 probability: 78 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 3:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 133 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:50 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 133 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:38 (2:49 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 20:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 5:50 (2:55 / km)
Total: 20:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 1.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 17 Ayan Beisenbayev
KAZ
+40 s
+20 s
G2 / G1
 5:50
6:03
 20:28
Show details
Prediction details: Ayan Beisenbayev

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 3–32
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 4:16
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 20.4 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 159 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:50 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 12
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 147 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:03 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 20:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:16 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 5:50 (2:55 / km)
Total: 20:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:54
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 21.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 7 Ren Sato
JPN
+29 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 5:52
5:44
 20:30
Show details
Prediction details: Ren Sato

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 4–24
Top-10 probability: 48 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 4:05
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 14.4 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 166 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:52 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 166 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:44 (2:52 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 20:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:05 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 5:52 (2:56 / km)
Total: 20:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:54
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 10.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 29 Aleksandr Kurishov
UZB
+8 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:25
6:46
 20:34
Show details
Prediction details: Aleksandr Kurishov

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 8–24
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 3:44
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -9.4 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 185 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.2 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:25 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 171 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:46 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 20:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:44 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:54 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 6:25 (3:12 / km)
Total: 20:34
14 / 12 Rongheng Chen
CHN
+35 s
+22 s
G2 / G1
 5:57
5:52
 20:35
Show details
Prediction details: Rongheng Chen

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 6–27
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 4:11
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 13.1 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 93 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:57 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:52 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 20:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:11 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 5:57 (2:58 / km)
Total: 20:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 16.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 19 Kenshin Mori
JPN
+27 s
+20 s
G2 / G1
 5:58
6:07
 20:36
Show details
Prediction details: Kenshin Mori

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 5–23
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 4:03
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 6.8 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 145 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:58 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 144 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:07 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 20:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:03 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 5:58 (2:59 / km)
Total: 20:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 8.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 20 Tak Long Yip
HKG
+38 s
+24 s
G2 / G1
 6:01
6:10
 20:39
Show details
Prediction details: Tak Long Yip

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 11–28
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 4:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 13.5 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 260 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:01 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 260 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:10 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 20:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 6:01 (3:00 / km)
Total: 20:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 18.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 32 Sangmin Park
KOR
+11 s
+24 s
G1 / G2
 6:30
6:25
 20:39
Show details
Prediction details: Sangmin Park

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 13–26
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 3:47
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -12.9 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:30 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:25 (3:13 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 20:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:47 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:54 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 6:30 (3:15 / km)
Total: 20:39
18 / 22 Gyuseo Choi
KOR
+34 s
+27 s
G2 / G1
 6:06
6:12
 20:44
Show details
Prediction details: Gyuseo Choi

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 11–29
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 4:10
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 7.0 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:06 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:12 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 20:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:10 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 6:06 (3:03 / km)
Total: 20:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 15.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 16 Min Ho Heo
KOR
+37 s
+25 s
G2 / G1
 6:13
6:03
 20:51
Show details
Prediction details: Min Ho Heo

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 17–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 4:13
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 11.7 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.86 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:13 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 1.11 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:03 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 20:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:13 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 6:13 (3:07 / km)
Total: 20:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 18.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 28 Jason Tai Long Ng
HKG
+35 s
+21 s
G2 / G1
 6:15
6:40
 20:53
Show details
Prediction details: Jason Tai Long Ng

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 12–33
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 4:11
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 14.3 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 155 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 93 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:15 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 155 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:40 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 20:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:11 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 6:15 (3:07 / km)
Total: 20:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:54
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 16.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 9 Daryn Konysbayev
KAZ
+50 s
+22 s
G3 / G1
 5:35
5:46
 20:54
Show details
Prediction details: Daryn Konysbayev

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 3–33
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 4:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 28.0 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 59 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:35 (2:47 / km)
Historical basis: 2:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:37 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:46 (2:53 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 20:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:21 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 5:35 (2:47 / km)
Total: 20:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 31.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 15 Cheung Sing Nicholas Tsang
HKG
+21 s
+19 s
G2 / G1
 6:19
5:58
 20:57
Show details
Prediction details: Cheung Sing Nicholas Tsang

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 10–24
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 3:57
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 1.6 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 253 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:19 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 12
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 253 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:58 (2:59 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 20:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:57 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 6:19 (3:09 / km)
Total: 20:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 21 Tzu I Pan
TPE
+24 s
+20 s
G2 / G1
 6:19
6:14
 20:57
Show details
Prediction details: Tzu I Pan

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 13–25
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 4:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 3.7 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 219 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:19 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 12
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 223 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:14 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 20:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 6:19 (3:09 / km)
Total: 20:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 5.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 5 Yunxiang Ma
CHN
+47 s
+26 s
G3 / G1
 5:41
5:34
 21:00
Show details
Prediction details: Yunxiang Ma

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 5–30
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 4:23
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 21.0 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:41 (2:51 / km)
Historical basis: 2:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:34 (2:47 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 21:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:23 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:21 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 5:41 (2:51 / km)
Total: 21:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 28.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 13 Tsz To Wong
HKG
+38 s
+11 s
G2 / G1
 6:23
5:54
 21:01
Show details
Prediction details: Tsz To Wong

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 15–35
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 4:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 26.5 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 168 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:23 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 12
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 167 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:54 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 21:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 6:23 (3:12 / km)
Total: 21:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 18.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 35 Aleksey Makarov
UZB
+25 s
+5 s
G2 / G2
correct 		6:29
6:46
 21:07
Show details
Prediction details: Aleksey Makarov

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 12–33
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 4:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 19.5 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:29 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:46 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 21:07
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 6:29 (3:15 / km)
Total: 21:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 5.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 10 Yunfeng Teng
CHN
+42 s
+23 s
G3 / G1
 5:50
5:45
 21:09
Show details
Prediction details: Yunfeng Teng

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 4–31
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 4:18
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 18.9 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 159 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:50 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 159 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:45 (2:53 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 21:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:18 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:21 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 5:50 (2:55 / km)
Total: 21:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 23.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 36 Li Rong, Luke Chua
SGP
+37 s
+21 s
G2 / G2
correct 		6:40
6:50
 21:18
Show details
Prediction details: Li Rong, Luke Chua

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 20–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 4:13
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 16.2 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 209 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:40 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 209 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:50 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 21:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:13 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 6:40 (3:20 / km)
Total: 21:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:54
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 18.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 14 Alexandr Ten
KAZ
+46 s
+25 s
G3 / G1
 6:00
5:59
 21:19
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandr Ten

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 9–33
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 4:22
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 20.8 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:00 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 12
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:59 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 21:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:22 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:21 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 6:00 (3:00 / km)
Total: 21:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 27.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 37 Tien Yu Chiang
TPE
+29 s
+20 s
G2 / G2
correct 		6:49
6:50
 21:27
Show details
Prediction details: Tien Yu Chiang

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 24–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 4:05
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 8.5 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 78 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:49 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 12
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:50 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 21:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:05 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 6:49 (3:25 / km)
Total: 21:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 9.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 25 Taegi Kim
KOR
+46 s
+26 s
G3 / G1
 6:10
6:27
 21:29
Show details
Prediction details: Taegi Kim

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 22–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 4:22
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 19.8 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 74 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:10 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:27 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 21:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:22 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:21 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 6:10 (3:05 / km)
Total: 21:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 27.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 18 Temirlan Temirov
KAZ
+44 s
+18 s
G3 / G1
 6:11
6:07
 21:30
Show details
Prediction details: Temirlan Temirov

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 14–35
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 4:20
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 25.9 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:11 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:07 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 21:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:20 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:21 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 6:11 (3:06 / km)
Total: 21:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 25.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 26 Arlan Zhanabay
KAZ
+57 s
+22 s
G3 / G1
 6:17
6:19
 21:36
Show details
Prediction details: Arlan Zhanabay

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 24–37
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 4:33
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 35.1 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 5.8 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:17 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 12
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur -0.81 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:19 (3:10 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 21:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:33 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:21 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 6:17 (3:08 / km)
Total: 21:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 38.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 38 Yi Jun Tey
SGP
+50 s
+25 s
G3 / G3
correct 		6:20
6:25
 21:39
Show details
Prediction details: Yi Jun Tey

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 19–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 4:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 25.1 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:20 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:25 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 21:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:21 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 6:20 (3:10 / km)
Total: 21:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 31.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 33 Dayshaun Ramos
PHI
+50 s
+26 s
G3 / G2
 6:23
6:37
 21:42
Show details
Prediction details: Dayshaun Ramos

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 22–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 4:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 23.8 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:23 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:37 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 21:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:21 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 6:23 (3:11 / km)
Total: 21:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 31.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 34 Wt Dominic Carson
HKG
+32 s
+21 s
G2 / G2
correct 		7:23
6:40
 22:01
Show details
Prediction details: Wt Dominic Carson

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 30–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 4:08
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 10.6 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:23 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur -0.79 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:40 (3:20 / km)
Error: +0:43 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 22:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:08 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:58 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 7:23 (3:41 / km)
Total: 22:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 13 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 30 Ruslan Karnilov
UZB
+54 s
+21 s
G3 / G1
 6:51
7:08
 22:10
Show details
Prediction details: Ruslan Karnilov

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 29–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 4:30
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 33.1 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 1 (30 people)
Speed: 45.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:51 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:08 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 22:10
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:30 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:21 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 6:51 (3:25 / km)
Total: 22:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 35.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 31 Kamran Khodjaev
UZB
+63 s
+24 s
G4 / G2
 6:53
6:19
 23:13
Show details
Prediction details: Kamran Khodjaev

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 29–39
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 4:39
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 38.9 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 162 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.8 s
Gap behind: 44.7 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:53 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 148 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:19 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 23:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:39 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:17 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 6:53 (3:27 / km)
Total: 23:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 44.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 39 Sultan Aliev
UZB
+108 s
+35 s
G5 / G4
 6:18
6:25
 23:47
Show details
Prediction details: Sultan Aliev

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 38–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +108 s
Time: 5:24
Pace: 1:48 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 72.6 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 44.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:18 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:25 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 23:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:24 (1:48 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:41 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 6:18 (3:09 / km)
Total: 23:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 89 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.