Prediction comparison

Youth Men

13.06.2026 CHN

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Asia Triathlon Super Sprint Elite, Youth, U15 Championship Xuzhou

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 53/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 21 früheren Rennen und 450 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 44.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 13.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 35.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 71.0 % · 21 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error7.2

Mean swim error13.8 s

Mean bike-speed error4.01 km/h

Correct bike groups5/22

No history9

Within the 80% range25.8 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 18	Parsa Rasouli Jazi IRI	+23 s +39 s	G1 / G3	6:17 6:43	21:53	Show details Prediction details: Parsa Rasouli Jazi Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–11 Top-10 probability: 89 % Result: 18 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 3:54 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: -16.0 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 37 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 50 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.8 s Gap behind: 5.5 s Result: Group 3 (5 people) Speed: 39.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.07 km/h Running and total Run: 6:17 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:43 (3:22 / km) Error: −0:26 / −0:13 / km Overall prediction: 21:53 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 3:54 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:13 (39.3 km/h) Run: 6:17 (3:09 / km) Total: 21:53
2 / 2	Canta Ine JPN	+15 s +22 s	G1 / G1 correct	6:20 6:10	21:56	Show details Prediction details: Canta Ine Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 1–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +15 s Time: 3:46 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: -7.5 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 22 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 68 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 1.7 s Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 42.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.33 km/h Running and total Run: 6:20 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:10 (3:05 / km) Error: +0:10 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 21:56 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 3:46 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:13 (39.3 km/h) Run: 6:20 (3:10 / km) Total: 21:56
3 / 23	Li-Je Huang TPE	+7 s +43 s	G1 / G3	6:30 7:41	22:06	Show details Prediction details: Li-Je Huang Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 1–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 23 Deviation: -20 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +7 s Time: 3:38 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: -36.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 1.37 %, Sicherheit 17 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.0 s Gap behind: 5.5 s Result: Group 3 (5 people) Speed: 40.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.68 km/h Running and total Run: 6:30 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:41 (3:51 / km) Error: −1:11 / −0:35 / km Overall prediction: 22:06 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 3:38 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:13 (39.3 km/h) Run: 6:30 (3:15 / km) Total: 22:06
4 / 13	Alham Murat KAZ	+18 s +36 s	G1 / G2	6:33 6:50	22:09	Show details Prediction details: Alham Murat Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 2–10 Top-10 probability: 91 % Result: 13 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 3:49 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +36 s Fehler: -17.6 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 29 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 53 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 2 (13 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.88 km/h Running and total Run: 6:33 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 27 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:50 (3:25 / km) Error: −0:17 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 22:09 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 3:49 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:13 (39.3 km/h) Run: 6:33 (3:17 / km) Total: 22:09
5 / 4	Xishuo Zhang CHN	+13 s +18 s	G1 / G1 correct	6:42 6:34	22:18	Show details Prediction details: Xishuo Zhang Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 3–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 3:44 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: -5.5 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 22 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 76 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.5 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 42.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.18 km/h Running and total Run: 6:42 (3:21 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:34 (3:17 / km) Error: +0:08 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 22:18 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 3:44 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:13 (39.3 km/h) Run: 6:42 (3:21 / km) Total: 22:18
6 / 21	Mohammadparsa Siampour IRI	+13 s +47 s	G1 / G3	7:05 7:01	22:41	Show details Prediction details: Mohammadparsa Siampour Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 5–9 Top-10 probability: 98 % Result: 21 Deviation: -15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 3:44 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: -33.9 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.00 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 75 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 3 (5 people) Speed: 39.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.37 km/h Running and total Run: 7:05 (3:33 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:01 (3:31 / km) Error: +0:04 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 22:41 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 3:44 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:13 (39.3 km/h) Run: 7:05 (3:33 / km) Total: 22:41
7 / 9	Gor Depershmidt KAZ	+18 s +35 s	G1 / G2	7:08 6:33	22:44	Show details Prediction details: Gor Depershmidt Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 6–12 Top-10 probability: 78 % Result: 9 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 3:49 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: -16.7 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 50 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (13 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.68 km/h Running and total Run: 7:08 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:33 (3:17 / km) Error: +0:35 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 22:44 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 3:49 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:13 (39.3 km/h) Run: 7:08 (3:34 / km) Total: 22:44
8 / 1	Ramazan Ainegov KAZ	+29 s +27 s	G2 / G1	6:18 6:08	22:55	Show details Prediction details: Ramazan Ainegov Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 2–15 Top-10 probability: 76 % Result: 1 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 4:00 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 2.0 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.72 %, Sicherheit 42 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 37.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 2.7 s Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 42.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.38 km/h Running and total Run: 6:18 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 35 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:08 (3:04 / km) Error: +0:10 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 22:55 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:00 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (37.3 km/h) Run: 6:18 (3:09 / km) Total: 22:55 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 3:55 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 4.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 5	Yansong Li CHN	+29 s +47 s	G2 / G2 correct	6:19 6:13	22:56	Show details Prediction details: Yansong Li Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 4–11 Top-10 probability: 88 % Result: 5 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 4:00 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: -18.5 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 9 % Speed: 37.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.5 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 2 (13 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.13 km/h Running and total Run: 6:19 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 85 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:13 (3:07 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 22:56 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 4:00 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (37.3 km/h) Run: 6:19 (3:09 / km) Total: 22:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 3:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 3.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 15	Hoi Fan Ma HKG	+21 s +31 s	G1 / G2	7:22 7:01	22:58	Show details Prediction details: Hoi Fan Ma Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 9–15 Top-10 probability: 29 % Result: 15 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +21 s Time: 3:52 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +31 s Fehler: -9.8 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 35 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 1.8 s Result: Group 2 (13 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.88 km/h Running and total Run: 7:22 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 70 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:01 (3:31 / km) Error: +0:21 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: 22:58 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 3:52 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:13 (39.3 km/h) Run: 7:22 (3:41 / km) Total: 22:58
11 / 8	Aliasghar Keshavarzian IRI	+0 s +22 s	G1 / G1 correct	7:27 6:58	23:03	Show details Prediction details: Aliasghar Keshavarzian Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 8–12 Top-10 probability: 79 % Result: 8 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 3:31 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: -22.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.19 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 7.0 s Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 42.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.43 km/h Running and total Run: 7:27 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:44 / km Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:58 (3:29 / km) Error: +0:29 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 23:03 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 3:31 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:13 (39.3 km/h) Run: 7:27 (3:43 / km) Total: 23:03
12 / 16	Chun Hei Wong HKG	+19 s +42 s	G1 / G2	7:33 7:05	23:09	Show details Prediction details: Chun Hei Wong Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 9–15 Top-10 probability: 20 % Result: 16 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: 3:50 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: -22.9 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 49 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 2 (13 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.98 km/h Running and total Run: 7:33 (3:46 / km) Historical basis: 3:48 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 79 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:05 (3:33 / km) Error: +0:28 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 23:09 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 3:50 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:13 (39.3 km/h) Run: 7:33 (3:46 / km) Total: 23:09
13 / 19	Yin Hang Chan HKG	+16 s +27 s	G1 / G2	7:45 7:55	23:21	Show details Prediction details: Yin Hang Chan Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 11–16 Top-10 probability: 9 % Result: 19 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 3:47 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: -10.8 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 60 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.7 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 2 (13 people) Speed: 41.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.30 km/h Running and total Run: 7:45 (3:52 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 65 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:55 (3:58 / km) Error: −0:10 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 23:21 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 3:47 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:13 (39.3 km/h) Run: 7:45 (3:52 / km) Total: 23:21
14 / 14	Ngai Chun Ting HKG	+32 s +38 s	G2 / G2 correct	6:58 6:49	23:35	Show details Prediction details: Ngai Chun Ting Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 10–15 Top-10 probability: 11 % Result: 14 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 4:03 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +38 s Fehler: -6.3 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 29 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 37.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.7 s Gap behind: 6.0 s Result: Group 2 (13 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.73 km/h Running and total Run: 6:58 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 27 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:49 (3:25 / km) Error: +0:09 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 23:35 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 4:03 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (37.3 km/h) Run: 6:58 (3:29 / km) Total: 23:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 3:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 7.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 10	Leader Matthew Wisanggeni INA	+39 s +40 s	G3 / G2	6:31 6:34	25:38	Show details Prediction details: Leader Matthew Wisanggeni Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 8–16 Top-10 probability: 31 % Result: 10 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 4:10 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: -0.8 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 32.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 2.5 s Result: Group 2 (13 people) Speed: 42.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -9.49 km/h Running and total Run: 6:31 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 1.36 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:34 (3:17 / km) Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 25:38 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:10 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 18:24 (32.6 km/h) Run: 6:31 (3:16 / km) Total: 25:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 3:55 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 14.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 6	Orinbasarov Abilaykhan UZB	+42 s +34 s	G3 / G2	6:56 6:23	26:03	Show details Prediction details: Orinbasarov Abilaykhan Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 12–16 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 6 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 4:13 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 7.7 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 27 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.5 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 2 (13 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -9.54 km/h Running and total Run: 6:56 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:25 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 1.52 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:23 (3:12 / km) Error: +0:33 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 26:03 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:13 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 18:24 (32.6 km/h) Run: 6:56 (3:28 / km) Total: 26:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 3:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 17.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 25	Wei Da Chan MAS	+54 s +61 s	G4 / G5	7:50 7:55	27:10	Show details Prediction details: Wei Da Chan Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 17–20 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 25 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +54 s Time: 4:25 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +61 s Fehler: -6.8 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.0 s Gap behind: 5.0 s Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 37.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.74 km/h Running and total Run: 7:50 (3:55 / km) Historical basis: 3:56 / km Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 69 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:55 (3:58 / km) Error: −0:05 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 27:10 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:25 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 18:25 (32.6 km/h) Run: 7:50 (3:55 / km) Total: 27:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 3:55 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 29.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 26	Ethan Chi-Onn Chang SGP	+59 s +80 s	G5 / G6	6:52 7:13	27:52	Show details Prediction details: Ethan Chi-Onn Chang Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 17–20 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 26 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +59 s Time: 4:30 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +80 s Fehler: -20.8 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.0 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 6 (5 people) Speed: 35.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.52 km/h Running and total Run: 6:52 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 1.32 %, Sicherheit 97 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:13 (3:37 / km) Error: −0:21 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: 27:52 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:30 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 19:58 (30.1 km/h) Run: 6:52 (3:26 / km) Total: 27:52 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 3:55 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 34.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 31	Pongkun Nuttala THA	+43 s +56 s	G3 / G6	9:08 9:03	28:15	Show details Prediction details: Pongkun Nuttala Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 17–20 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 31 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 4:14 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +56 s Fehler: -12.8 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 93 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 11.0 s Result: Group 6 (5 people) Speed: 35.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.85 km/h Running and total Run: 9:08 (4:34 / km) Historical basis: 4:36 / km Best comparable pace: 4:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 59 % Ergebnis Lauf: 9:03 (4:32 / km) Error: +0:05 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 28:15 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 18:24 (32.6 km/h) Run: 9:08 (4:34 / km) Total: 28:15 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 3:55 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 18.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 27	Daniel Mouhsian SGP	+38 s +53 s	G3 / G5	9:22 8:43	28:29	Show details Prediction details: Daniel Mouhsian Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 17–20 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 27 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 4:09 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: -15.3 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 87 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.0 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 37.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.69 km/h Running and total Run: 9:22 (4:41 / km) Historical basis: 4:43 / km Best comparable pace: 4:43 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 50 % Ergebnis Lauf: 8:43 (4:22 / km) Error: +0:39 / +0:19 / km Overall prediction: 28:29 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 4:09 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 18:24 (32.6 km/h) Run: 9:22 (4:41 / km) Total: 28:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 3:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 13.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 30	Chrysander Wong SGP	+61 s +70 s	G5 / G6	9:11 8:21	30:11	Show details Prediction details: Chrysander Wong Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 21–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 30 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: 4:32 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +70 s Fehler: -9.3 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 87 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 6 (5 people) Speed: 35.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.80 km/h Running and total Run: 9:11 (4:36 / km) Historical basis: 4:37 / km Best comparable pace: 4:37 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 50 % Ergebnis Lauf: 8:21 (4:11 / km) Error: +0:50 / +0:25 / km Overall prediction: 30:11 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 4:32 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 19:58 (30.1 km/h) Run: 9:11 (4:36 / km) Total: 30:11 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 3:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 36.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 29	Thanakrit Mansuwan THA	+62 s +66 s	G5 / G6	10:01 8:09	31:01	Show details Prediction details: Thanakrit Mansuwan Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 22–22 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 29 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +62 s Time: 4:33 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +66 s Fehler: -4.2 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 72 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (5 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.62 km/h Running and total Run: 10:01 (5:00 / km) Historical basis: 5:02 / km Best comparable pace: 5:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 40 % Ergebnis Lauf: 8:09 (4:05 / km) Error: +1:52 / +0:56 / km Overall prediction: 31:01 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 4:33 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 19:58 (30.1 km/h) Run: 10:01 (5:00 / km) Total: 31:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 3:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 37.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3	Dinghan Zhou CHN	+0 s +20 s	G0 / G1	6:29		Show details Prediction details: Dinghan Zhou Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 23–23 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 3:31 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 42.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 6:29 (3:15 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 3:31 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Haru Hirayama JPN	+0 s +0 s	G0 / G1	6:59		Show details Prediction details: Haru Hirayama Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 24–24 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 3:31 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 41.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 6:59 (3:30 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 3:31 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Yibo Liu CHN	+0 s +38 s	G0 / G2	6:27		Show details Prediction details: Yibo Liu Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 25–25 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 3:31 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +38 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (13 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 6:27 (3:14 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 3:31 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Jintao Xu CHN	+0 s +37 s	G0 / G2	6:41		Show details Prediction details: Jintao Xu Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 26–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 3:31 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (13 people) Speed: 42.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 6:41 (3:21 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 3:31 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17	Elaman Balabayev KAZ	+0 s +36 s	G0 / G2	7:19		Show details Prediction details: Elaman Balabayev Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 27–27 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 3:31 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +36 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (13 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 7:19 (3:40 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 3:31 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 20	Shota Masaki JPN	+0 s +43 s	G0 / G3	6:56		Show details Prediction details: Shota Masaki Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 28–28 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 3:31 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (5 people) Speed: 39.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 6:56 (3:28 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 3:31 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 22	King To Chan HKG	+0 s +52 s	G0 / G3	7:03		Show details Prediction details: King To Chan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 29–29 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 22 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 3:31 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +52 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (5 people) Speed: 39.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 7:03 (3:32 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 3:31 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 24	Yat Long Lam HKG	+0 s +52 s	G0 / G4	7:39		Show details Prediction details: Yat Long Lam Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 30–30 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 24 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 3:31 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +52 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 38.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 7:39 (3:50 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 3:31 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 28	Yuto Hara JPN	+0 s +35 s	G0 / G6	8:18		Show details Prediction details: Yuto Hara Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 31–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 28 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 3:31 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (5 people) Speed: 34.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 8:18 (4:09 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 3:31 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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