Prediction comparison

Elite Men

25.01.2026 La Habana CUB

Race information and calculation basis

2026 CUB Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.01.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 45/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 50.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.0

Mean swim error38.6 s

Mean bike-speed error4.78 km/h

Correct bike groups2/4

No history0

Within the 80% range25.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Alejandro Rodriguez Diez CUB	+34 s +2 s	G1 / G1 correct	35:06 34:36	1:35:59	Show details Prediction details: Alejandro Rodriguez Diez Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 19:41 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 32.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.95 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 80 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 11.3 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 43.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.58 km/h Running and total Run: 35:06 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:36 (3:28 / km) Error: +0:30 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 1:35:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:41 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:19 (39.8 km/h) Run: 35:06 (3:31 / km) Total: 1:35:59
2 / 2	Marcos Alejandro Fernández González CUB	+45 s +4 s	G2 / G1	35:56 35:55	1:38:47	Show details Prediction details: Marcos Alejandro Fernández González Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 19:52 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 41.3 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 71 % Speed: 38.7 km/h Gap ahead: 11.3 s Gap behind: 2.0 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 43.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.73 km/h Running and total Run: 35:56 (3:36 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 10 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 2.33 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:55 (3:36 / km) Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:52 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:04 (38.7 km/h) Run: 35:56 (3:36 / km) Total: 1:38:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 19:50 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 2.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3	Jorge Emmanuel Alemañez Martínez CUB	+47 s +0 s	G2 / G1	41:17 35:53	1:44:08	Show details Prediction details: Jorge Emmanuel Alemañez Martínez Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +47 s Time: 19:54 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 47.3 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.83 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 26 % Speed: 38.7 km/h Gap ahead: 2.0 s Gap behind: 64.0 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 43.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.72 km/h Running and total Run: 41:17 (4:08 / km) Historical basis: 4:10 / km Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -1.07 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:53 (3:35 / km) Error: +5:24 / +0:32 / km Overall prediction: 1:44:08 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:54 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:04 (38.7 km/h) Run: 41:17 (4:08 / km) Total: 1:44:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 19:45 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 9.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4	Eddy Santiesteban Torres CUB	+111 s +145 s	G3 / G3 correct	37:58		Show details Prediction details: Eddy Santiesteban Torres Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +111 s Time: 20:58 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +145 s Fehler: -33.7 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.1 km/h Gap ahead: 64.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 28.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.09 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 37:58 (3:48 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:58 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:21 (34.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 19:45 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 73.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total