Prediction comparison

Elite Men

03.05.2026 Ganloese DEN

Race information and calculation basis

2026 DEN Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 03.05.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 67/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 72 früheren Rennen und 1579 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 39.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 25.04.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 33.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 75.0 % · 72 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.2

Mean swim error23.0 s

Mean bike-speed error2.30 km/h

Correct bike groups1/10

No history2

Within the 80% range16.7 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Oliver Hostrup Sahlberg DEN	+15 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:36 16:00	45:01	Show details Prediction details: Oliver Hostrup Sahlberg Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +15 s Time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 15.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 83 % Speed: 42.6 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 5.0 s Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 41.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.08 km/h Running and total Run: 16:36 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:12 / km) Error: +0:36 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 45:01 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:10 (42.6 km/h) Run: 16:36 (3:19 / km) Total: 45:01
2 / 3	Lukas Bentsen DEN	+20 s +3 s	G2 / G1	17:35 17:42	46:59	Show details Prediction details: Lukas Bentsen Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 9:24 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 17.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 59 % Speed: 41.3 km/h Gap ahead: 5.0 s Gap behind: 12.5 s Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 41.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.23 km/h Running and total Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:42 (3:32 / km) Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 46:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (41.3 km/h) Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km) Total: 46:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 1.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4	Tobias Gårde Skou DEN	+95 s +79 s	G6 / G2	15:13 15:58	48:02	Show details Prediction details: Tobias Gårde Skou Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 5–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +95 s Time: 10:39 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +79 s Fehler: 16.3 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 39 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.0 s Gap behind: 69.7 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.09 km/h Running and total Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 28 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 (3:12 / km) Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 48:02 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:39 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:13 (38.4 km/h) Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km) Total: 48:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 76.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 7	Noah Brendholdt DEN	+33 s +25 s	G3 / G1	18:05 18:17	48:17	Show details Prediction details: Noah Brendholdt Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 5–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: 7.5 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 12.5 s Gap behind: 11.4 s Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.70 km/h Running and total Run: 18:05 (3:37 / km) Historical basis: 3:37 / km Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Ergebnis Lauf: 18:17 (3:39 / km) Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 48:17 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:40 (40.5 km/h) Run: 18:05 (3:37 / km) Total: 48:17 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 13.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5	Oliver Dyrholm Pilegaard DEN	+61 s +43 s	G5 / G1	17:25 18:07	49:32	Show details Prediction details: Oliver Dyrholm Pilegaard Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 7–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: 10:05 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: 17.7 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.93 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.6 km/h Gap ahead: 16.8 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 42.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.92 km/h Running and total Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:07 (3:37 / km) Error: −0:42 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 49:32 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:05 (38.6 km/h) Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km) Total: 49:32 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 41.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 6	August Juul-Andersen DEN	+90 s +35 s	G6 / G1	16:56 18:05	49:45	Show details Prediction details: August Juul-Andersen Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 7–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +90 s Time: 10:34 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 55.3 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 42 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.1 s Gap behind: 5.0 s Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.95 km/h Running and total Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 30 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:05 (3:37 / km) Error: −1:09 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: 49:45 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:13 (38.4 km/h) Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km) Total: 49:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 71.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8	Oliver Uldahl DEN	+62 s +66 s	G5 / G3	17:53 18:18	50:00	Show details Prediction details: Oliver Uldahl Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 7–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +62 s Time: 10:06 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +66 s Fehler: -4.3 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.83 %, Sicherheit 18 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.6 km/h Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 18.5 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 39.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.39 km/h Running and total Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:39 / km Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.87 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:18 (3:40 / km) Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 50:00 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:05 (38.6 km/h) Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km) Total: 50:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 42.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 10	August Mumm DEN	+80 s +67 s	G6 / G2	19:34 19:37	52:23	Show details Prediction details: August Mumm Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 10–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 10 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +80 s Time: 10:24 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +67 s Fehler: 13.2 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 31 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 18.5 s Gap behind: 10.1 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 40.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.67 km/h Running and total Run: 19:34 (3:55 / km) Historical basis: 3:54 / km Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 21 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:37 (3:55 / km) Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 52:23 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:13 (38.4 km/h) Run: 19:34 (3:55 / km) Total: 52:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 61.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2	Frederick Bradley DEN	+44 s +44 s	G4 / G1	16:13		Show details Prediction details: Frederick Bradley Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +44 s Fehler: -0.1 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.56 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 40.6 km/h Gap ahead: 11.4 s Gap behind: 16.8 s Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 42.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.09 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:13 (3:15 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:34 (40.6 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 25 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9	Elias Holm DEN	+0 s +85 s	G0 / G2	19:14		Show details Prediction details: Elias Holm Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 11–11 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:04 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +85 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:14 (3:51 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	William Tilma Kleis DEN	+0 s +105 s	G0 / G4	17:55		Show details Prediction details: William Tilma Kleis Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 12–12 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:04 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +105 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 37.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Kasper Koefoed DEN	+165 s +81 s	G7 / G2	20:41		Show details Prediction details: Kasper Koefoed Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +165 s Time: 11:49 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +81 s Fehler: 84.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 34 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 69.7 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.86 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:41 (4:08 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 11:49 (1:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:37 (34.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 146.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

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