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40-44 Female AG

14.06.2026 Tarragona ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Age-Group Championships Tarragona

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 39/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 11 früheren Rennen und 277 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 51.1 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 21.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 35.7 % · 11 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.0
Mean swim error126.1 s
Mean bike-speed error2.80 km/h
Correct bike groups1/8
No history6
Within the 80% range57.1 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 9 Katie Wright
GBR
+94 s
+155 s
G1 / G10
 42:05
45:33
 1:42:47
Show details
Prediction details: Katie Wright

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +94 s
Time: 26:46
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +155 s
Fehler: -61.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 83.4 s
Result: Group 10 (2 people)
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:05 (4:13 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 45:33 (4:33 / km)
Error: −3:28 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:47
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 26:46 (1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:08 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 42:05 (4:13 / km)
Total: 1:42:47
2 / 2 Wioleta Jarocka
POL
+187 s
+264 s
G2 / G3
 39:56
43:28
 1:58:55
Show details
Prediction details: Wioleta Jarocka

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +187 s
Time: 28:19
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +264 s
Fehler: -77.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.5 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:56 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:28 (4:21 / km)
Error: −3:32 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 1:58:55
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 28:19 (1:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:15:47 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 39:56 (4:00 / km)
Total: 1:58:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:50
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
About 89 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +97.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4 Lehna Gardiner
GBR
+191 s
+163 s
G2 / G4
 41:49
44:39
 2:00:48
Show details
Prediction details: Lehna Gardiner

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +191 s
Time: 28:23
Pace: 1:54 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +163 s
Fehler: 28.2 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:49 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:39 (4:28 / km)
Error: −2:50 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 2:00:48
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 28:23 (1:54 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:15:47 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 41:49 (4:11 / km)
Total: 2:00:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:50
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
About 93.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +97.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 7 Caoimhe De-Ste-Croix
GBR
+177 s
+133 s
G2 / G6
 43:25
46:57
 2:02:24
Show details
Prediction details: Caoimhe De-Ste-Croix

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +177 s
Time: 28:09
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +133 s
Fehler: 44.4 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 83.4 s
Gap behind: 9.5 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 43:25 (4:21 / km)
Historical basis: 4:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 46:57 (4:42 / km)
Error: −3:32 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 2:02:24
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 28:09 (1:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:15:47 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 43:25 (4:21 / km)
Total: 2:02:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:50
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
About 79.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +97.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 3 Denise Neufert
AUT
+728 s
+516 s
G3 / G5
 39:00
42:15
 2:03:54
Show details
Prediction details: Denise Neufert

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +728 s
Time: 37:20
Pace: 2:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +516 s
Fehler: 211.8 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 121.8 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:00 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:15 (4:14 / km)
Error: −3:15 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 2:03:54
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 37:20 (2:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:12:46 (32.5 km/h)
Run: 39:00 (3:54 / km)
Total: 2:03:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:50
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
About 629.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +97.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5 Gemma Brown
GBR
+192 s
+72 s
G2 / G2
correct 		51:20
49:59
 2:10:19
Show details
Prediction details: Gemma Brown

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +192 s
Time: 28:24
Pace: 1:54 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: 119.5 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.33 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 274.1 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 51:20 (5:08 / km)
Historical basis: 5:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 49:59 (5:00 / km)
Error: +1:21 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 2:10:19
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 28:24 (1:54 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:15:47 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 51:20 (5:08 / km)
Total: 2:10:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:50
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
About 93.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +97.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 6 Kirsten Hutchison
GBR
+466 s
+254 s
G3 / G8
 48:08
45:20
 2:13:02
Show details
Prediction details: Kirsten Hutchison

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +466 s
Time: 32:58
Pace: 2:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +254 s
Fehler: 211.6 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 274.1 s
Gap behind: 140.4 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 48:08 (4:49 / km)
Historical basis: 4:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 45:20 (4:32 / km)
Error: +2:48 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 2:13:02
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 32:58 (2:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:12:46 (32.5 km/h)
Run: 48:08 (4:49 / km)
Total: 2:13:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:50
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
About 367.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +97.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 8 Jo Davies
GBR
+606 s
+351 s
G3 / G7
 49:20
49:11
 2:14:14
Show details
Prediction details: Jo Davies

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +606 s
Time: 35:18
Pace: 2:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +351 s
Fehler: 255.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.32 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 140.4 s
Gap behind: 121.8 s
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 49:20 (4:56 / km)
Historical basis: 4:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 49:11 (4:55 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 2:14:14
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 35:18 (2:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:12:46 (32.5 km/h)
Run: 49:20 (4:56 / km)
Total: 2:14:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 26:50
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
About 508.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +97.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 Joanna Smart
GBR
+0 s
+0 s
G0 / G1
47:34
Show details
Prediction details: Joanna Smart

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 25:12
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 47:34 (4:45 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 25:12 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Sarah Gilson
BEL
+0 s
+286 s
G0 / G7
52:52
Show details
Prediction details: Sarah Gilson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 25:12
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +286 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 52:52 (5:17 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 25:12 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Evgenia Katsoni
GBR
+0 s
+354 s
G0 / G10
48:21
Show details
Prediction details: Evgenia Katsoni

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 25:12
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +354 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (2 people)
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 48:21 (4:50 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 25:12 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Isabel Hall
GBR
+0 s
+356 s
G0 / G9
55:42
Show details
Prediction details: Isabel Hall

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 25:12
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +356 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 55:42 (5:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 25:12 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Stephanie Gordts
BEL
+0 s
+946 s
G0 / G12
47:19
Show details
Prediction details: Stephanie Gordts

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 25:12
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +946 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 31.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 47:19 (4:44 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 25:12 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Samantha Wright
GBR
+0 s
+215 s
G0 / G11
59:25
Show details
Prediction details: Samantha Wright

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 25:12
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +215 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 30.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 59:25 (5:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 25:12 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.