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60-64 Open AG

14.06.2026 Tarragona ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Age-Group Championships Tarragona

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 65/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 65 früheren Rennen und 1015 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 10.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 12.04.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 5 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 30.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 55.0 % · 65 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error10.7
Mean swim error130.0 s
Mean bike-speed error2.76 km/h
Correct bike groups0/32
No history8
Within the 80% range10.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Innes Wright
GBR
+55 s
+84 s
G1 / G5
 37:12
42:13
 1:42:27
Show details
Prediction details: Innes Wright

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 23:57
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +84 s
Fehler: -29.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 51.7 s
Gap behind: 20.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:12 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:13 (4:13 / km)
Error: −5:01 / −0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:27
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 23:57 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:20 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 37:12 (3:43 / km)
Total: 1:42:27
2 / 1 Christoph Stähli
SUI
+201 s
+85 s
G3 / G1
 37:21
40:43
 1:46:30
Show details
Prediction details: Christoph Stähli

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +201 s
Time: 26:23
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +85 s
Fehler: 116.3 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 23.4 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:21 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:43 (4:04 / km)
Error: −3:22 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:46:30
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 26:23 (1:46 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:23 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 37:21 (3:44 / km)
Total: 1:46:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:12
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 131.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 7 Miguel Isla Rodriguez
ESP
+115 s
+85 s
G3 / G9
 41:17
44:33
 1:50:26
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Isla Rodriguez

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 11–12
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +115 s
Time: 24:57
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +85 s
Fehler: 30.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 43.4 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:17 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:33 (4:27 / km)
Error: −3:16 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:50:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 24:57 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:23 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 41:17 (4:08 / km)
Total: 1:50:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 55.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 10 Matthew Elson
GBR
+247 s
+252 s
G4 / G12
 41:15
45:15
 1:50:54
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Elson

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 11–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +247 s
Time: 27:09
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +252 s
Fehler: -5.4 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:15 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 45:15 (4:32 / km)
Error: −4:00 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 1:50:54
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 27:09 (1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:01 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 41:15 (4:08 / km)
Total: 1:50:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 186.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 14 Kenneth Blom
NOR
+158 s
+245 s
G3 / G15
 42:44
43:54
 1:51:53
Show details
Prediction details: Kenneth Blom

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 11–14
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +158 s
Time: 25:40
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +245 s
Fehler: -86.6 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 43.4 s
Gap behind: 5.6 s
Result: Group 15 (2 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:44 (4:16 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:54 (4:23 / km)
Error: −1:10 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:51:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 25:40 (1:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:23 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 42:44 (4:16 / km)
Total: 1:51:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:12
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 88.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5 Paul Chesworth
GBR
+75 s
+41 s
G2 / G3
 47:54
45:39
 1:54:24
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Chesworth

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 13–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 24:17
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 34.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.0 s
Gap behind: 37.0 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 47:54 (4:47 / km)
Historical basis: 4:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -1.64 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 45:39 (4:34 / km)
Error: +2:15 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:54:24
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 24:17 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:15 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 47:54 (4:47 / km)
Total: 1:54:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 15.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 11 John Maltby
GBR
+399 s
+437 s
G4 / G10
 45:04
46:26
 1:54:43
Show details
Prediction details: John Maltby

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 14–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +399 s
Time: 29:41
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +437 s
Fehler: -38.5 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.44 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 7.5 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 45:04 (4:30 / km)
Historical basis: 4:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.15 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 46:26 (4:39 / km)
Error: −1:22 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:54:43
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 29:41 (1:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:01 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 45:04 (4:30 / km)
Total: 1:54:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:12
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 328.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 29 Hans Michael Eberle
GER
+0 s
+602 s
G1 / G24
 50:12
50:41
 1:55:27
Show details
Prediction details: Hans Michael Eberle

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 15–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:02
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +602 s
Fehler: -602.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 24 (2 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 50:12 (5:01 / km)
Historical basis: 5:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 50:41 (5:04 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:55:27
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 23:02 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:20 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 50:12 (5:01 / km)
Total: 1:55:27
9 / 15 Thomas Wiedl
GER
+298 s
+282 s
G4 / G7
 47:12
50:31
 1:56:51
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Wiedl

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 16–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +298 s
Time: 28:00
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +282 s
Fehler: 16.3 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 49.8 s
Gap behind: 39.7 s
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 47:12 (4:43 / km)
Historical basis: 4:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 50:31 (5:03 / km)
Error: −3:19 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:56:51
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 28:00 (1:52 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:01 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 47:12 (4:43 / km)
Total: 1:56:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:12
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 228.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 4 Tufty Nash
GBR
+225 s
+83 s
G3 / G2
 48:43
44:05
 1:57:52
Show details
Prediction details: Tufty Nash

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 16–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +225 s
Time: 26:47
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +83 s
Fehler: 141.7 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.23 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 23.4 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 48:43 (4:52 / km)
Historical basis: 4:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.95 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:05 (4:25 / km)
Error: +4:38 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 1:57:52
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 26:47 (1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:23 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 48:43 (4:52 / km)
Total: 1:57:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 164.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 16 Didier Marysael
FRA
+226 s
+254 s
G3 / G8
 48:48
50:17
 1:57:57
Show details
Prediction details: Didier Marysael

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 17–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +226 s
Time: 26:48
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +254 s
Fehler: -27.6 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 16.9 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 48:48 (4:53 / km)
Historical basis: 4:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 50:17 (5:02 / km)
Error: −1:29 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:57:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 26:48 (1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:23 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 48:48 (4:53 / km)
Total: 1:57:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:09
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 159.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +67 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 33 Manuel Cuadrado Sanguino
ESP
+243 s
+328 s
G4 / G28
 48:53
49:44
 1:58:32
Show details
Prediction details: Manuel Cuadrado Sanguino

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 18–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +243 s
Time: 27:05
Pace: 1:48 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +328 s
Fehler: -84.7 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.43 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.9 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 28 (1 people)
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 48:53 (4:53 / km)
Historical basis: 4:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 49:44 (4:58 / km)
Error: −0:51 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:58:32
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 27:05 (1:48 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:01 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 48:53 (4:53 / km)
Total: 1:58:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 183.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 39 Paul Quinn
GBR
+172 s
+370 s
G3 / G30
 51:03
1:08:23
 2:00:12
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Quinn

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 19–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +172 s
Time: 25:54
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +370 s
Fehler: -198.4 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.6 s
Gap behind: 25.9 s
Result: Group 30 (1 people)
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 51:03 (5:06 / km)
Historical basis: 5:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:08:23 (6:50 / km)
Error: −17:20 / −1:44 / km
Overall prediction: 2:00:12
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 25:54 (1:44 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:23 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 51:03 (5:06 / km)
Total: 2:00:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 111.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 22 Manuel Fernández Aceña
ESP
+530 s
+306 s
G5 / G22
 41:18
43:56
 2:00:39
Show details
Prediction details: Manuel Fernández Aceña

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 20–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +530 s
Time: 31:52
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +306 s
Fehler: 223.6 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -1.70 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 19, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 61.6 s
Gap behind: 121.1 s
Result: Group 22 (1 people)
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:18 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:56 (4:24 / km)
Error: −2:38 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 2:00:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 31:52 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:14 (35.3 km/h)
Run: 41:18 (4:08 / km)
Total: 2:00:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 469.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 19 Owen Barron
IRL
+651 s
+744 s
G5 / G19
 42:48
43:26
 2:02:09
Show details
Prediction details: Owen Barron

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 22–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +651 s
Time: 33:53
Pace: 2:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +744 s
Fehler: -93.3 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 20, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 121.1 s
Gap behind: 15.9 s
Result: Group 19 (1 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:48 (4:17 / km)
Historical basis: 4:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:26 (4:21 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 2:02:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 33:53 (2:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:14 (35.3 km/h)
Run: 42:48 (4:17 / km)
Total: 2:02:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:04
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 589 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +61.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 25 Miłosz Lenart
POL
+436 s
+559 s
G5 / G25
 43:00
46:36
 2:02:21
Show details
Prediction details: Miłosz Lenart

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 22–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +436 s
Time: 30:18
Pace: 2:01 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +559 s
Fehler: -123.1 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 16, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 29.9 s
Gap behind: 11.4 s
Result: Group 25 (1 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 43:00 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 46:36 (4:40 / km)
Error: −3:36 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 2:02:21
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 30:18 (2:01 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:14 (35.3 km/h)
Run: 43:00 (4:18 / km)
Total: 2:02:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 376 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 32 Neil McManus
GBR
+667 s
+765 s
G5 / G29
 43:11
46:35
 2:02:32
Show details
Prediction details: Neil McManus

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 23–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +667 s
Time: 34:09
Pace: 2:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +765 s
Fehler: -98.4 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 21, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 15.9 s
Gap behind: 112.0 s
Result: Group 29 (1 people)
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 43:11 (4:19 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 46:35 (4:40 / km)
Error: −3:24 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 2:02:32
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 34:09 (2:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:14 (35.3 km/h)
Run: 43:11 (4:19 / km)
Total: 2:02:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 606.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 35 Frank Edelkraut
GER
+249 s
+348 s
G4 / G23
 56:24
1:01:52
 2:06:03
Show details
Prediction details: Frank Edelkraut

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 26–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +249 s
Time: 27:11
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +348 s
Fehler: -99.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 49.8 s
Result: Group 23 (1 people)
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 56:24 (5:38 / km)
Historical basis: 5:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:01:52 (6:11 / km)
Error: −5:28 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 2:06:03
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 27:11 (1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:01 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 56:24 (5:38 / km)
Total: 2:06:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 188.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 24 Georges Carpi
FRA
+447 s
+294 s
G5 / G17
 46:49
52:16
 2:06:10
Show details
Prediction details: Georges Carpi

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 26–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +447 s
Time: 30:29
Pace: 2:02 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +294 s
Fehler: 153.3 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.14 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 17, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.4 s
Gap behind: 20.7 s
Result: Group 17 (1 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 46:49 (4:41 / km)
Historical basis: 4:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 52:16 (5:14 / km)
Error: −5:27 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 2:06:10
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 30:29 (2:02 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:14 (35.3 km/h)
Run: 46:49 (4:41 / km)
Total: 2:06:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 387.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 26 Klaus Schug
GER
+198 s
+225 s
G3 / G16
 58:48
54:19
 2:07:57
Show details
Prediction details: Klaus Schug

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 27–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +198 s
Time: 26:20
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +225 s
Fehler: -27.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 25.9 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 16 (2 people)
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 58:48 (5:53 / km)
Historical basis: 5:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 54:19 (5:26 / km)
Error: +4:29 / +0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 2:07:57
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 26:20 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:23 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 58:48 (5:53 / km)
Total: 2:07:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 137.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 37 Thorsten Hellwig
GER
+165 s
+216 s
G3 / G24
 1:00:21
1:05:01
 2:09:30
Show details
Prediction details: Thorsten Hellwig

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 29–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +165 s
Time: 25:47
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +216 s
Fehler: -51.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 6.6 s
Result: Group 24 (2 people)
Speed: 30.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:00:21 (6:02 / km)
Historical basis: 6:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:05:01 (6:30 / km)
Error: −4:40 / −0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 2:09:30
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 25:47 (1:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:23 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 1:00:21 (6:02 / km)
Total: 2:09:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 105.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 20 Steven Marshall
GBR
+406 s
+268 s
G6 / G11
 59:06
49:20
 2:18:50
Show details
Prediction details: Steven Marshall

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 30–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +406 s
Time: 29:48
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +268 s
Fehler: 138.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.5 s
Gap behind: 29.9 s
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 59:06 (5:55 / km)
Historical basis: 6:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 49:20 (4:56 / km)
Error: +9:46 / +0:59 / km
Overall prediction: 2:18:50
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 29:48 (1:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:12:58 (32.9 km/h)
Run: 59:06 (5:55 / km)
Total: 2:18:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 346.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 40 Jarosław Feliński
POL
+779 s
+861 s
G7 / G33
 52:55
1:02:17
 2:21:37
Show details
Prediction details: Jarosław Feliński

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 31–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +779 s
Time: 36:01
Pace: 2:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +861 s
Fehler: -82.4 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 22, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 112.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 33 (1 people)
Speed: 28.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 52:55 (5:17 / km)
Historical basis: 5:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:02:17 (6:14 / km)
Error: −9:22 / −0:56 / km
Overall prediction: 2:21:37
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 36:01 (2:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:15:43 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 52:55 (5:17 / km)
Total: 2:21:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 718.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 17 Antonio Martos Garcia
ESP
+338 s
+171 s
G4 / G13
 1:33:28
46:03
 2:43:07
Show details
Prediction details: Antonio Martos Garcia

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 32–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +338 s
Time: 28:40
Pace: 1:55 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +171 s
Fehler: 167.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 39.7 s
Gap behind: 53.0 s
Result: Group 13 (2 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:33:28 (9:21 / km)
Historical basis: 9:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 46:03 (4:36 / km)
Error: +47:25 / +4:44 / km
Overall prediction: 2:43:07
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 28:40 (1:55 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:01 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 1:33:28 (9:21 / km)
Total: 2:43:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:12
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 268.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Patrice Biville
FRA
+0 s
+316 s
G1 / G6
39:44
Show details
Prediction details: Patrice Biville

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:02
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +316 s
Fehler: -316.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:44 (3:58 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 23:02 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:20 (37.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 6 Paul Algieri
GBR
+3 s
+52 s
G1 / G4
49:54
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Algieri

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 23:05
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: -48.7 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 51.7 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 49:54 (4:59 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 23:05 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:20 (37.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 8 Richard Walters
GBR
+397 s
+256 s
G4 / G13
43:20
Show details
Prediction details: Richard Walters

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +397 s
Time: 29:39
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +256 s
Fehler: 141.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.0 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 13 (2 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:20 (4:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 29:39 (1:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:01 (38.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:12
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 327.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9 Johnny Van Alphen
BEL
+0 s
+0 s
G0 / G7
48:56
Show details
Prediction details: Johnny Van Alphen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 33–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:02
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 48:56 (4:54 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 23:02 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Sean Wells
GBR
+112 s
+76 s
G3 / G7
50:16
Show details
Prediction details: Sean Wells

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +112 s
Time: 24:54
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: 36.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 37.0 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 50:16 (5:02 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 24:54 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:23 (36.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:12
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 42.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 13 Iain Martin
GBR
+164 s
+492 s
G3 / G16
42:55
Show details
Prediction details: Iain Martin

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +164 s
Time: 25:46
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +492 s
Fehler: -328.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.6 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 16 (2 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:55 (4:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 25:46 (1:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:23 (36.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 104.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 18 Toni Fadda
GER
+391 s
+389 s
G4 / G15
46:01
Show details
Prediction details: Toni Fadda

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +391 s
Time: 29:33
Pace: 1:58 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +389 s
Fehler: 2.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 53.0 s
Gap behind: 6.0 s
Result: Group 15 (2 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 46:01 (4:36 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 29:33 (1:58 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:01 (38.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:12
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 321.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 21 Glenn De Buf
BEL
+0 s
+313 s
G0 / G18
45:44
Show details
Prediction details: Glenn De Buf

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 34–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:02
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +313 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 18 (1 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 45:44 (4:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 23:02 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 23 Marten Mosch
NED
+0 s
+56 s
G0 / G14
50:16
Show details
Prediction details: Marten Mosch

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 35–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:02
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 14 (1 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 50:16 (5:02 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 23:02 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 27 Andrey Varvinskiy
GBR
+0 s
+212 s
G0 / G20
52:31
Show details
Prediction details: Andrey Varvinskiy

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 36–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:02
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +212 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 20 (1 people)
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 52:31 (5:15 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 23:02 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 28 Jonathan Tate
GBR
+0 s
+300 s
G0 / G21
52:48
Show details
Prediction details: Jonathan Tate

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 37–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:02
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +300 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 21 (1 people)
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 52:48 (5:17 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 23:02 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 30 Wayne Longshaw
GBR
+0 s
+488 s
G1 / G26
49:47
Show details
Prediction details: Wayne Longshaw

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -30

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:02
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +488 s
Fehler: -488.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 26 (1 people)
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 49:47 (4:59 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 23:02 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:20 (37.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 31 David Ballard
GBR
+0 s
+397 s
G0 / G27
49:23
Show details
Prediction details: David Ballard

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 38–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:02
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +397 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 27 (2 people)
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 49:23 (4:56 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 23:02 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 34 Andrew Parsons
GBR
+468 s
+334 s
G5 / G27
55:42
Show details
Prediction details: Andrew Parsons

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -34

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +468 s
Time: 30:50
Pace: 2:03 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +334 s
Fehler: 134.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 18, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.7 s
Gap behind: 61.6 s
Result: Group 27 (2 people)
Speed: 31.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 55:42 (5:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 30:50 (2:03 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:14 (35.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:12
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
About 398.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 36 Bernd Bodiselitsch
AUT
+0 s
+513 s
G0 / G31
54:31
Show details
Prediction details: Bernd Bodiselitsch

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 39–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:02
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +513 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 31 (1 people)
Speed: 29.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 54:31 (5:27 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 23:02 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 38 Robert Kinnison
GBR
+0 s
+773 s
G0 / G32
56:51
Show details
Prediction details: Robert Kinnison

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 40–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:02
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +773 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 32 (1 people)
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 56:51 (5:41 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 23:02 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.