Prediction comparison

16-19 Female AG

18.07.2026 Banyoles ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 17/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 22 früheren Rennen und 122 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 5.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 18.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 25.0 % · 22 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.0

Mean swim error27.1 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history6

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Scarlett Hutchinson-Thompson GBR	+0 s +17 s	Bike DNF	20:11	Show details Prediction details: Scarlett Hutchinson-Thompson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:13 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:11 (4:02 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:13 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Alicia Bethell GBR	+16 s +0 s	Bike DNF	43:51 20:55	Show details Prediction details: Alicia Bethell Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 14:29 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 16.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 43:51 (8:46 / km) Historical basis: 9:00 / km Best comparable pace: 9:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:55 (4:11 / km) Error: +22:56 / +4:35 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 14:29 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 43:51 (8:46 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Emily Geake GBR	+0 s +131 s	Bike DNF	21:06	Show details Prediction details: Emily Geake Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:13 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +131 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:06 (4:13 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:13 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Mélissa Ruiz ESP	+0 s +48 s	Bike DNF	22:42	Show details Prediction details: Mélissa Ruiz Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:13 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +48 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:42 (4:32 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:13 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Lily Williams GBR	+0 s +228 s	Bike DNF	20:04	Show details Prediction details: Lily Williams Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:13 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +228 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:04 (4:01 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:13 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Elizabeth Ryan GBR	+173 s +135 s	Bike DNF	22:30 23:13	Show details Prediction details: Elizabeth Ryan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +173 s Time: 17:06 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +135 s Fehler: 38.2 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 22:30 (4:30 / km) Historical basis: 4:23 / km Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:13 (4:39 / km) Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 17:06 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:30 (4:30 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Mairela Miranda Ausin ESP	+0 s +255 s	Bike DNF	23:40	Show details Prediction details: Mairela Miranda Ausin Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:13 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +255 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:40 (4:44 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:13 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Sinead Greene IRL	+0 s +265 s	Bike DNF	27:50	Show details Prediction details: Sinead Greene Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:13 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +265 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 27:50 (5:34 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:13 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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